[翻譯] FIVE REASONS FOR TIGERS NOT TO PANIC

[yyjack (小虎)]

FIVE REASONS FOR THE TIGERS NOT TO PANIC
http://tigers.scout.com/story/1437929-five-reasons-for-the-tigers-not-to-
panic?s=273

Paul Wezner

Unrest among Tigers fans has picked up over the past couple weeks, as the
Tigers have fallen out of first place behind the upstart Royals and there
have been a few ugly losses along the way. Despite that, there are five
reasons why the Tigers remain in good shape.

這陣子老虎輸了幾場很難看的比賽；皇家持續高潮
不得以讓出盤據已久的美中龍頭位置。
Paul Wezner提供5個理由告訴虎迷們不用過分恐慌，球隊狀況並沒有完全失控。


1. The slump isn't much of a slump
   球隊大低潮?!?!  其實還好耶

Despite appearances, and a few losses full of crooked numbers, the Tigers sit
at 11-11 in the month of August. That's nothing to write home about for a team
that's aiming to win the division crown, but it's also not a horrific slump,
either. Consider last year, when the Tigers won the AL Central and clinched
it a week before the season ended, the Tigers were within a game of .500 in
three of the six months of the season. In 2012, they had two months just like
it, too, and were three games under .500 in May. Way back in 2006, the Tigers
had a six week stretch over August and September where they didn't win a
single series.

8月份幾場大比分落敗讓球隊看來即將崩盤
事實上，打到目前為止11勝11敗，剛好5成
頂多是個小低潮
去年，老虎在球季結束前1週攻頂，6個月賽程  有3個月勝率未達5成
前年，也有2個月如此
追朔到2006最後打盡WS那年，八月到九月，老虎曾連續輸掉6個系列賽

Over the course of a six month long season, teams are bound to have a few
bumps in the road. When it comes to wins and losses, this recent stretch is
nothing unlike what the Tigers have gone through in prior years when they had
some significant postseason success.

6個月打162場例行賽，是非常漫長的賽季
高低潮在所難免
重點是目前狀況根本不是大低潮  (也許更慘的還在後頭XD)
去年最後慘多啦  (別忘了最後一場被no-hit, 再見暴投)

2. The pitching staff is about to get healthier
   投手陣容只會越來越健康  (結果香吉士的手又出問題….)

In a cruel twist of fate, the Tigers lost a pair of starting pitchers just
as they were entering a stretch full of playing every day with a doubleheader
mixed in. That forced the Tigers to have to not just reach down to Toledo,
but down to Erie and pull up a guy like Buck Farmer, a solid pitching prospect
with little experience, and certainly not someone ready to compete against big
league hitters. The results were to be expected.

Wezner撰文時，先發輪值少了香吉士跟V中年兩位大將
迫使在雙重戰call up Buck Farmer這種還未準備好的小將
但這種情況在漫長賽季終在所難免
老虎的鑽石輪值跟其他球隊比起來已經很健康了

But Justin Verlander returned this past weekend, Anibal Sanchez could return
from the disabled list and start this weekend, and Joakim Soria will be back
to try and help stabilize the bullpen.

V中年已經回來
香吉士快回來 or….回不來
Soria也快回來了
莫擔心

A former Cy Young and MVP winner, last year's AL ERA champ, and an experienced
closer. Those are some significant reinforcements for a team that was relying
on Farmer, Robbie Ray and the revolving door of relievers from Toledo.

不重要~~跳過

3. Rosters expand on September 1
   9月名單擴編  期待新幫手

Yes, that's true for everyone. But in the case of the Tigers, it provides an
opportunity to exploit some tactical holes. Ezequiel Carrera is probably best
as a late-inning defensive replacement and pinch runner, but has to be used
as more than that right now. That won't be the case next week, when the Tigers
can add Tyler Collins or Steven Moya to the big league roster. The catchers
have also struggled mightily against left-handed pitching, with just a .231
wOBA, but Toledo's James McCann has a .350/.409/.487 slash line against
lefties, and he'll be ready and able to come up as well.

其實每一隊都可以借此補強啦
對老虎來而言
Carrera最適合位置是比賽末段代跑代守
可以從3A拉上Tyler Collins或Steven Moya增加板凳火力
(Moya已經確定去打AFL, 大聯盟明年見, good for him)

農場最強補手James McCann終於要上來啦
Avila被左殺   McCann剛好特別會殺左投  他上來會有一定幫助

The Tigers have been juggling as best they can to manage a roster with some
obvious holes and limited alternative options. But when rosters expand, those
options increase substantially.

不可否認老虎陣容的缺點很明顯，農場選擇又不多
但9月擴編對球隊來說是好消息

4. The Royals can't keep this up
   皇家不可能一直猛下去

Fans are in a frenzy over a month in which the Tigers have lost their lead in
the AL Central, but it's been far more about the success Kansas City has been
having, winners of 24 of their last 31. That's an impressive streak, but it's
unsustainable, and likely in line for a correction. No team plays .800 ball
for half a season.

老虎如何在一個月內丟掉戰績首位
再次強調不是因為我們打太差
是皇家太屌   誰能跟最近31戰24勝的球隊比
但…總有回到地球表面時後
如果有一支球隊能夠半季維持8成勝率
那冠軍就讓給他吧

According to Baseball Prospectus, it's not just that the Royals are playing
above their heads and winning a few more close games than expected. They're
winning WAY more, to the tune of an additional ten games between what their
projected record should be based on runs scored and what it actually is. Even
when adjusted for opponents, it's still nine games higher than expected. That's
a larger difference between actual and expected record than any other team in
MLB. Toughness and grit and all that aside, Kansas City has gotten a favorable
bounce through the first five months of the season.

從Baseball Prospectus的數據分析看來 (得失分…etc)
皇家不只最近打很嗨   整個球季下來他們比預期多贏9場比賽!!
這是很大的差距

Correcting for the past can be tough to argue, because there's no going back
and changing it, but there's nothing to indicate this hot streak won't end,
because all streaks do. And when it does, the underlying projections show the
Royals are a .500 baseball team.

已經發生的不能改寫   失去的愛找不回來
就算數據顯示如此   我們也無法肯定皇家熱潮即將結束
但不管怎麼看  皇家打起來是支5成勝率等級的球隊無誤

5. Star power matters
   超級巨星的價值

Max Scherzer. David Price. Miguel Cabrera. Victor Martinez. Verlander. Five
players on the Tigers roster, every one of them better than anyone else Kansas
City has to offer. That's not to knock a solid Royals club, it's simply to
point out the obvious.

The Tigers have a track record of success, because they have some of the best
players in baseball. And they still have those same players. Sure, some have
had their ups-and-downs this season, but when push comes to shove, you'd still
take a down year from Cabrera than the best Alex Gordon has to offer.

我們是邪惡的明星大軍
Max Scherzer. David Price. Miguel Cabrera. Victor Martinez. Verlander
任何一位在皇家都可以掛頭牌  (V中年現在這樣我都不敢說了…)
我們有實績、有經驗、有最強的打擊機器米糕
最後再說一次    不用過份恐慌

--------------------------

截至今天8/26 (美國時間)
老虎跟皇家勝差1.5
跟水手並列外卡第二

翻這篇並不是要說老虎鐵定進Playoff
皇家接下來鐵定落賽
而是    最近板上氣氛也太凝重了一點
就放輕鬆點看球吧

--
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※ 文章網址: http://www.ptt.cc/bbs/DET_Tigers/M.1409113339.A.879.html
推 sarraya: 不要忘了，皇家這種表現我們季初也有，但是沒維持下去...
推 m16a117: 開季打到一半也是突然撞邪... 輸不停= =
推 arcobaleno7: 推~給予信心的優質好文
推 dannyalex: 推
推 BetterBeGood: 推
推 kk0610: 推~加油老虎
推 remprogress: 加油!!
推 carrhung: 版上氣氛真的是莫名的低迷XD 第四點也是我最認同的
→ carrhung: 那不是常態！所以我們輕鬆的看球就好 然後期待九月~
推 sarraya: 我反而最不認同第4點，我不喜歡去預期對手會表現差來增強
→ sarraya: 信心，照理老虎正常發揮應該就還有機會進季後賽...
→ yyjack: 1跟4其實是兩大重點  老虎沒有在大低潮  而且皇家近況太猛
→ yyjack: 不是說預期對方會變爛  而是沒有球隊可以半季8成勝率的
→ yyjack: 如果他們可以一直維持  給皇家進也心服口服
推 carrhung: 大家會覺得近況很差是因為大家對這支球隊的期待應該是
→ carrhung: 一支勝率六成至七成的隊伍吧XD 最近一直勉強keep在5-5
→ carrhung: 感覺就好像一直在輸球 XD
推 sarraya: 感覺這個陣容至少要六成勝率吧 XD
推 dibbo: 然後被虐的場次感覺比較多,虐人的場次又會被牛棚搞出劇場