[外絮] Revisiting Lin vs. Felton decision

[likeway (我不是過客我是馬)]

資料來源：ESPN，http://goo.gl/Q7fbf

作者：kevin pelton

Revisiting Lin vs. Felton decision

From the standpoint of the New York Knicks, hoping to justify their decision
to let Jeremy Lin leave in free agency and replace him at point guard with
Raymond Felton, this season couldn't have started any better. Felton was
excellent during the month of November as the Knicks got off to a surprising
start, while Lin struggled to find his place next to James Harden with the
Houston Rockets.

對尼克隊而言，十一月開季戰績長紅加上Raymond Felton(Lin的替代品)大爆發多少合理
化夏天沒有留下Lin的決定，因為Lin表現不佳且還在學習如何與James Harden一起打球。

Some three months later, it's worth revisiting the Lin decision. Felton's
success, like his team's, has proved fleeting. Meanwhile, the Rockets and Lin
are one of the league's hottest teams.

過了三個再來看看這個決定，好不？Felton的爆發一閃即逝，而Lin的火箭則是聯盟最火
熱的球隊之一。

Misleading month
令人誤會的那個月

You remember November, right? President Barack Obama had just been
re-elected, Manti Te'o was merely a linebacker in contention for the Heisman,
and the Knicks were one of the NBA's best teams. Behind a flurry of
3-pointers and a smaller lineup with Carmelo Anthony at power forward, New
York started the season 14-4. The Knicks capped that stretch with their
second win over the Miami Heat and marked themselves as serious contenders in
the Eastern Conference.

還記得12月嗎？尼克隊是聯盟最強球隊之一。充滿激情的三分球和以Carmelo Anthony為
主的小個子先發陣容，讓尼克得到14-4戰績。包括兩次戰勝熱火的壯舉，也讓尼克成為東
區冠軍的熱門隊伍之一。

New York's backcourt of Felton and fellow newcomer Jason Kidd played a major
role in the fast start. Felton made 40 percent of his 3s in November while
averaging 14.6 points and 6.7 assists. Kidd was even better beyond the arc at
nearly 49 percent. As a team, the Knicks shot 41.6 percent from 3-point
range, powering the league's best offensive rating in the month.

Felton 和新同學Jason Kidd是這套快速球風的關鍵後場。Felton 12月的三分命中率超過
40%、平均得分14.6分、助攻6.7次，Kidd則有高於生涯平均的49%命中率。尼克隊的三分
命中率高達41.6%，是聯盟中進攻最犀利的隊伍。

Everyone said the shooting couldn't last, and it didn't. Since Dec. 1, New
York has shot exactly the league average (35.8 percent) on 3-pointers.
Felton, at 31.4 percent, has been even worse. The Knicks are still a very
good offensive team, ranking sixth in points per possession from December
onward, but not the juggernaut they once were.

但有人說"你以為可以天天過年嗎!"，當然不行。自從12/1之後，尼克隊三分命中率回復
到聯盟平均35.8%，Felton只有31.4%。尼克還保持著每回合進攻得分排行第6的佳績，但
已經不再像是juggernaut般無敵(Xman中的怪物，比巨石強森還壯)。

At the same time, as the chart shows, the Rockets were making the opposite
transformation, with Lin as one of the leaders. As Houston has figured out
how to utilize both Harden and Lin, the Rockets' offense has gone from
solidly above average in November to elite. Lin's own statistics, as measured
by wins above replacement, have seen a similar boost.

同時，以Lin為主的火箭卻產生另外相反的變化。當火箭隊學會如何融合Lin和Harden，12
月份他們的進攻從平庸提升到了精英程度。Lin的wins above replacement數據也有成長
。

Knicks finding their level
尼克隊回歸現實

The Knicks, it turns out, are who we thought they were. Since peaking at
14-4, they have consistently played at about a 45-win pace -- matching
preseason expectations. Project that out through the rest of the schedule and
New York figures to finish somewhere around 49 wins, which should be good for
third in the East.

終究來說，尼克隊跟我們預期的一樣，除了14-4的高潮，漸漸走向平均45勝的節奏。預估
季末會有49勝左右的水準，占據東區第3。

Fears that the crosstown rival Brooklyn Nets will come back to win the
Atlantic Division are probably overstated. While the Nets have climbed within
two games in the standings, their point differential is barely better than
.500, suggesting they're likely to regress somewhat the rest of the way. The
same is true of the Atlanta Hawks, who sit fifth, leaving only the Chicago
Bulls with a healthy Derrick Rose as a serious threat to the Knicks'
top-three seed.

同城兄弟籃網不太可能超越老鷹進而贏過尼克，因為籃網只有領先兩場勝差，勝負分差只
有0.5多一點，最終會回歸正常。排名第6老鷹也是同樣狀況，所以唯一能威脅東區前三種
子只有缺少Rose的公牛隊。

Felton, it turns out, is also who we thought he was -- not quite as bad as he
looked during his disastrous 2011-12 campaign in Portland, but not as good as
he played during his first half-season in New York or the opening month this
season. As much as Felton's playmaking and his ability to generate steals
have helped the Knicks, he has had a tough time scoring efficiently since the
3s stopped falling. Felton is making just 42.4 percent of his 2-point
attempts and has seen his true shooting percentage slip to 47.5 percent --
far worse than the league average of 53.2 percent.

Felton也不出我們所料，雖不至於2011-12 拓荒者那樣悲慘，也無法超過上次在尼克隊的
高水準。當他三分命中下滑之後得分變得困難，就只能靠著抄截和指揮幫助球隊。
Felton 兩分命中率只有42.4%，真實命中率也只有47.5%，遠低於聯盟平均53.2%。

Moving beyond Linsanity
超越林來瘋

For both the Knicks and Lin himself, Linsanity has become a distant memory.
Gone are the headlines, the screaming fans and the incredible numbers Lin
posted as the Knicks' go-to player last February. Instead of getting
Linsanity, the Rockets ended up with Jeremy Lin, developing point guard.

對尼克和Lin來說，林來瘋已經遠去。頭條新聞、瘋狂球迷和瘋狂得分秀也是去年二月的
事了。火箭隊得到的Lin只是個開發中的控衛。

Playing next to Harden, Lin isn't the focal point of the Houston offense the
way he was during the stretch that made him a household name. However, he has
defied critics by showing the ability to thrive in that smaller role. In
part, that's because of the adjustments made by the Rockets' coaching staff.
It also reflects Lin's 3-point shooting regressing to the mean. After
shooting 26.3 percent from downtown in November, Lin is at 34.4 percent
since, making him something of a threat when opponents leave him open.

在Harden身邊的Lin，已經不是球隊的得分重心。而他無視旁人評論努力融入教練團設定
的角色球員之中。數據會回歸，Lin從本來的26.3%三分命中率回到34.4%，稱得上對手該
注意的威脅。

The funny thing is Lin's 2012-13 stat line is relatively similar in many ways
to what he did last year in New York. His effective field goal percentage,
for example, is an identical .478. The difference in Lin's offense is
entirely a matter of volume. He's down from using 28.1 percent of the Knicks'
plays to 20 percent of Houston's, putting him precisely at the typical
figure, and his assist rate has dropped by almost a third. Lin's overall
performance, All-Star caliber in 2011-12's limited sample, is slightly below
league average this season. That's a more sustainable level of play.

有趣的是，Lin的數據跟去年有許多相似之處。包括有效命中率effective field goal 
47.8%、Lin的被使用率從尼克隊的28.8%下降到20%。助功率下降森三分之一。Lin的本季
表現比聯盟平均還低一些，尚有進步空間。

Looking ahead
往前看吧

Lin's ability to coexist with Harden, who doesn't use as many plays as
Anthony but tends to dominate the ball to a greater extent, leads naturally
to the question of whether Lin could have fit into an Anthony-centric offense
at Madison Square Garden.

Harden不像Anthony占據多數攻擊機會，卻傾向更全面的控制球權。讓人不禁想問 Lin能
否同樣適應Anthony為中心的麥迪遜花園廣場。

There are advantages to Lin's current situation. Houston's fast pace, and the
sheer number of pick-and-rolls the Rockets run as the basis of their offense,
give him more opportunity to play in space than he might have had in New
York. Still, it's not clear that Felton is any better fit for the Knicks than
Lin would have been. According to mySynergySports.com, the two players have
been about equally effective on spot-up opportunities, with Lin averaging
0.91 points per shot to Felton's 0.95. Surprisingly, Lin is a much more
frequent spot-up shooter.

因為快節奏，Lin明顯從火箭隊受益更多。加上pick'N roll的大量使用，讓Lin能在尼克
隊沒有的舒服空間打球。根據 mySynergySports.com，Lin和Felton的 spot-up 每次得分
為0.91分和0.95分差不多接近，但Lin得到spot-up的機會更為頻繁。

We're also comparing these players as they are now, not as they will be at
the end of the three-year contract Houston gave Lin. While Felton, 28, is
likely to be about the same player at that point if not take a slight step
backward, the 24-year-old Lin still has room to grow as an outside shooter
and playmaker.

我們是以目前比現來比較兩位球員，而不是3年合約後的Lin和Felton。3年後28歲的
Felton可能跟現在一樣不上不下。但是目前24歲的Lin仍有成長為射手和playmaker的空間
。

The Knicks won the early rounds of the Lin versus Felton decision. If Lin
already has pulled even, however, there may be no question who the better
choice was in a couple of years.

目前而言尼克隊對於Lin和Felton的決定是對的，但Lin照著目前節奏成長的話，他們兩人
誰比較好就不用多說了。

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 163.25.118.240
→ akthebest:請問會把後面那一部分翻完嗎？後面好像跟林比較有關。
推 shyshy:Felton祇是打出他生涯的平均表現而已
→ shyshy:他打很多年拉　每年都差不多這命中　　季初10場準　　一堆
→ shyshy:人開始說超強　　= = 　至於助攻數　　9助那季是丹東尼體系
推 olivelee:謝謝翻譯～期待後面段落～
推 j88072434:保佑尼克~ 雖然現在我支持火箭 但是很難再有一個林出來
→ j88072434:救他們了...
不好意思已經補完後面的部分。
※ 編輯: likeway         來自: 163.25.118.240       (03/20 23:24)
→ jcchiou:Knicks不只是打回原形, 還比去年季初還慘
推 ppppllo:不過靠經驗這周還是打敗爵士了 還是客場
→ ppppllo:夥見明天一定要好好加油 這場真的超重要
→ ppppllo:火箭
→ mico409:看到 "夥見" 居然不自覺得笑了 哈~
推 Mentha:我是覺得尼克傷兵太多有影響啦..
推 ppppllo:>< 還好沒有選到更奇怪的字
→ mico409:火箭贏 湖迷也是很樂的~
→ ppppllo:希望經過一天的休息一天的練習 明天可以打一場精采的勝仗
推 jt:4p大 "夥見"是哪一隊?  XDDDD
→ ppppllo:跪 我錯了 XDDDDDDDDDDD
推 olivelee:夥見 XDDDD
→ ppppllo:無視旁人評論努力融入教練團設定的腳色中.感動又充滿洋蔥
推 iswearxxx:尼克超雖的~傷兵太多 希望鬍子跟小帥哥能夠健健康康QQ
→ ppppllo:感謝翻譯..原作者對林相當友善
推 olivelee:文中提到火箭大量使用P&R..??
推 tinamo:感謝翻譯～
→ olivelee:還有這篇作者蠻客觀的 尼克的選擇沒錯～但他看好林的潛力
推 hrmymeg:感謝翻譯!
→ ppppllo:噗..D-MO真的有在幫忙擋人
→ ppppllo:             大量使用冰鎮法+囧三分
推 mico409:所以Lin成長性還是讓人期待的 今年算是第一個完整球季
→ mico409:在不會使用PG的教練底下 還可以打出這樣的成績 要拍拍手了
推 ppppllo:林書豪近來有逐漸加溫的感覺 (糗爺已經XX了 不用怕!!)
→ mico409:文中提到的PnR的話 感覺還是在尼克時期其實威脅性較高~~~
→ olivelee:比較感動的是他的進步很明顯 在季中就不斷進化了...
→ mico409:但是經過大半球季的磨合 火箭現階段Lin主導的PnR 不管跟
→ mico409:Asik GS or D-mo 都有不同的風格呈現出來~
→ ppppllo:健康打完整個賽季 這一季就達標1 帶牙套雖然帥度降一點 不
推 jt:LIN本季真的進步不少 現在越來越會逛禁區了 3分也練得不錯
→ ppppllo:過比較能保護嘴巴不要再流血..
推 fireunicorn:尼克傷兵太多+1 少了3000多萬的戰力...本來就會被影響
→ jt:火箭的內線比較弱 能打到現在這樣已很不錯
→ ppppllo:在NYK是跟著一群老大哥在打球..在HOU要學的課題還滿多的
→ mico409:Lin戴牙套後 真的進攻慾望上升不少 早點帶嘛~~~幹嘛矜持
→ jt:其實LIN是因為影響到他吃東西才痛下決心戴牙套嗎  XDDD
→ ppppllo:XDDDDDDDDDD 其實進攻欲望跟想搶季後賽應該也有很大關係
→ jt:其實他好像還不習慣 老是拿來拿去的
→ ppppllo:加上隊友各式各樣的打鐵之後 就得跳出來得分了
→ ppppllo:聽說帶牙套很傷體力???!
推 olivelee:林戴牙套的OS: 我要快點得分贏球 趕快牙套脫下去吃東西
推 xajx:火箭Lin發動的P&R比例不算高, 更別說和冷笑話時期比了..
→ ppppllo:Lin說帶牙套沒啥問題 雖然口齒不清 不過隊友聽得懂?
→ olivelee:噗～握手JT大～我們很有默契耶～我才剛打完就看到你打的
→ jt:可能要問阿西有沒有聽懂...XDDD
→ mico409:牙套只是個保護裝置 只有習不習慣 跟體力會有關係嗎?
→ ppppllo:不知耶 好像會影響呼吸??(忘記在哪看到的)
→ jt:O大握手~~
→ mico409:難道是呼吸的調節? 不過多用應該也是可以調整過來才對
→ ppppllo:阿西:我能依靠的只有牧師Lin(要關心安靜的同學)
→ jt:我覺得剛開始多少會影響專注力吧
→ claudia1419:已經不止一次看到火箭打很多pick'N roll了  ???
→ ppppllo:前幾天看到一個動圖 是林書豪在板凳跟阿西互相擊拳打氣
→ mico409:火箭更多時候打哈登的iso -.- Lin的球權不會憑空生出來~
推 losesoul01:哦哦哦 要拉進功夫打氣法了嗎XD
→ ppppllo:爵士這幾場得分都還不算高..希望火箭(打對了)明天FG%可以
→ mico409:還是需要哈登肯share一些 然後冰箱肯讓Lin主控~~~
→ ppppllo:正常點
→ losesoul01:以後先發5人都來功夫打氣~~XD
→ olivelee:林講話好像都會拿下來～所以我說他擊掌時手上都口水啊
→ mico409:不過越接近季後 Lin的球權明顯有增多 希望繼續維持下去~
→ jt:喔~~阿西要不要考慮加入功夫打氣
→ ppppllo:不是耶 就是很一般般的 拳頭對拳頭打氣 不過有一種阿西很
推 peggie:過了三個(這裡是不是漏了"月"字?)再來看看這個決定，好不？
推 claudia1419:我常常看到有文章在講火箭打很多pick'N roll 都滿腹疑
→ claudia1419:惑  可能是我自己看不懂吧
→ olivelee:阿西好像也蠻常和林在板凳上 哈登倒是就常常躲到最後面
→ mico409:明天火箭還是要打快 爵士隊半場針對性防守不錯 用快攻
→ claudia1419:4P大  那個動圖在哪  可以幫忙找一下網址嗎
→ ppppllo:想多接近林的感覺..後來小錢來林書豪就轉過去跟他聊天了XD
→ ppppllo:好像百度看到的 要花時間在找一下下..
→ mico409:讓防守陣式還沒戰好 就打進去 這樣火箭比較有優勢~
→ peggie:"pick'N roll的大量使用"?? 作者在平行時空看比賽嗎？火箭
→ fireunicorn:harden幫lin擋那個就是阿~@@
→ ppppllo:最近第四節 阿西是比較孤獨一點了(又更沉默了嗎XDDDD)
→ fireunicorn:有沒有大量使用就~XDD
→ peggie:什麼時候有大量P＆R了？不是只有MO嗎？
→ kkyyk:一開始戴牙套其實呼吸上不是很習慣 不過習慣後就OK了
→ mico409:@cla大 其實Lin主控 真的是主打PnR 但這也是整個賽季慢慢
→ jack0520:三年後肥噸28歲,LIN也27歲了阿,這種話術好像年紀差很多
→ fireunicorn:P&R可以是 mo啟動的一個動作~@@"
→ mico409:練出來的 其實火箭不是一個擅長打PnR的隊伍 他們是打
→ ppppllo:其實分屬東西區..慢慢的這兩個人也不太容易在被拿來比較了
→ olivelee:啊～對吼～哈登幫林檔那個我整個突然聯想不起來是P&R
→ fireunicorn:這也可以google就有~^^
→ mico409:moving 利用快速傳導跑動打快制勝~
→ olivelee:可能一般沒有SG在幫PG檔的吧！ 其他隊的有嗎？
推 puppetsgame:三年後的 Felton 是 31 歲了 :P 原文是指 Felton 幾乎
→ peggie:之前LIN打不好，除了底角男、關冰箱，不就因為不常打P＆R？
→ puppetsgame:不可能再進步，但今年 24 的 Lin 卻還有成長空間
推 jt:鬍子一直是擋得比較好的 阿西也是進步很多 剛開季還會進攻犯規
→ ppppllo:D-MO:怎麼都沒人提到我(雖然我上一場超鐵)
推 plzsmile:http://ppt.cc/ELLr 2:02開始 Lin和Asik板凳上擊拳打氣
→ mico409:對啊 季初的萬年底角男 怎麼發揮哩 想到就感嘆~
→ jt:其實就是成長的可能性 FELTON看來是比較小的
→ puppetsgame:籃網那段則有點問題；應該是：籃網貌似落後尼克一場
→ puppetsgame:勝差(單場輸贏勝差+-0.5)，但是得失分差只有 0.5 分
推 peggie:正常版主出現了耶？！唷吼～新版大萬福金安～～（揮手）
→ ppppllo:plzsmile大你太神了竟然知道我講的是這個影片
→ puppetsgame:表示籃網的成績往下修正的機率是比較高的，老鷹同理
→ mico409:新任P大版主 晚安  趕快趁機諂媚一下~
→ claudia1419:我看得出來最近有比較多 最常幫擋的是哈登 但是那類的
→ jt:0:22 那個是過動兒吧 XDDD
→ ppppllo:不正常版主 vs正常版主 XDDD
→ kkyyk:阿西其實進步超多的 季初他是奶油內奸 現在是禁區癡漢www
→ puppetsgame:而公牛必須要有健康的 Rose，才會威脅到尼克東區前三
→ claudia1419:得分析文我印象中好像兩個月前就有看到了 所以才疑惑
→ kkyyk:叩見 PUP版 ~~
→ puppetsgame:的地位，所以尼克繼續排東區前三的機率會比較大
→ ppppllo:我的註解是 阿西:Jeremy我可以當你的好朋友嗎?(好腦補)
推 lsforever:想說肥頓怎麼看都不像今年25歲 正想去查的說 謝P板主
推 plzsmile:因為我昨天在閒聊區默默放了連結啊~ (挖鼻
→ puppetsgame:以上是原文，不是我的意見 :P
→ kkyyk:而且現在阿西已經有越來越多空切直奔爆扣的情況
→ ppppllo:我也想推肥頓看起來不像25歲XDD
→ puppetsgame:太誇張了 ^^; 還沒上任的說~
→ ppppllo:可是阿西還是很容易TO 不過進球的感覺是有變好
→ mico409:哈登幫擋的PnR 其實對Lin幫助性不大 因為會守哈登的 速度
推 Mentha:我看到Felton25歲我想說怎麼跟我記的不一樣..
→ mico409:應該也是不慢 擋完後 Lin的內切 如果是C來幫擋 換C要來守
→ mico409:Lin 以Lin切入的速度 其實威脅性感覺較高~
推 jt:叩見新任板主
→ ppppllo:另外 這幾場 林書豪進球的弧度 球是慢慢的 彈道還滿準的
推 olivelee:影片裡面唱國歌的時候林一直扭來扭去～感覺很想跟著跳
→ jt:LIN有要練DMO來配合 不過還要時間
推 wylscott:我也很期待DMO的擋拆能更成熟 讓林的火力更開
推 losesoul01:唱國歌的時候 想說Lin和小帥哥這兩個美國公民怎麼比
→ mico409:另外就是Lin的左切 其實本季來看 右切左切 我個人是認為
→ losesoul01:旁邊的立陶宛人和阿根廷人還不專心XD
→ mico409:已經沒有太大的差異了 護球也護的很好 不像上季那麼慘~
推 peggie:小錢根本就國歌還沒唱完，他就變成跳跳虎，跳回休息室了
→ mico409:D-mo的PnR還有一大亮點是 D-mo是左手球員 這樣更難防~
→ jt:不過今天看到有說LIN這2場減少用左切了
→ peggie:DMO的背框轉身閃人跳投很帥～這麼大個兒左轉右轉的跟猴一樣
推 losesoul01:why? 用自己熟悉的方式 增加成功率嗎?
→ mico409:有說是啥原因減少左切嘛?
→ mico409:因為左切對受傷的膝蓋負擔較重嗎?
→ jt:http://www.isay.tw/?p=3918
→ peggie:看到I SAY寫的對不對？他說LIN可能是為了搶勝，暫不練功了
推 olivelee:可以參考這篇 http://www.isay.tw/?p=3918
→ peggie:現階段搶分搶勝比較重要，所以暫時繼續使用擅長的右切上籃
→ olivelee:這個站長真的很用心～每次比賽都蠻詳細分析一些場上現象
→ jt:O大握手 默契好好
→ olivelee:（回握）
→ Tenging:翻譯推
推 forttryon:謝謝原PO提供和翻譯這篇文章
推 peggie:我講的也是同一篇文啊……只講結論的我被丟一邊了……嗚嗚
推 fireunicorn:有看到原文比較加分嘛XDD
→ mico409:或許是教練團授意的? 戰績上的考量~
推 peter16:p大沒關係  給你一個推!!!!
推 olivelee:OK OK 左手握Peggie大 右手握JT大  ^^;
推 nancyh:感謝翻譯! 也是對提到火箭pick'N roll的大量使用 覺得疑惑
→ jt:peggie大 乖~~
推 akthebest:謝謝翻譯。
推 losesoul01:感謝翻譯
推 ppppllo:推 看完部落格那篇 我也覺得林改變打法跟剩餘場次有關係
→ ppppllo:不過比較上一場跟上上場 哈林都有發揮 結果卻差很多
→ ppppllo:我還是希望板凳能加油點 靠哈林這兩隻真的會累死
推 losesoul01:籃球是5個球員的運動啊 光靠2個人要撐起一個隊太沉重了
→ losesoul01:不過經過對勇士的比賽 應該會好好加強
→ ppppllo:主場 再不把握就真的很該打了..CP說對勇士的比賽很噁心><
→ losesoul01:要澎澎的上場打球啊XD
推 Aswind:這篇雖然肥頓也佔了一半內容 但沒人敢PO在尼克板 那邊的人
→ Aswind:也採取忽視的態度 XD
推 alxagdu:火箭PNR次數雖多 質量卻很差 跟拳王不能比啊...
推 wuling1001:感謝翻譯
推 admorert:謝謝翻譯:)
→ verna312:PO前東家版會被叫刪文吧XDD
推 ji31g42go61:尼克今年光是穩進季後就比去年那個慘開季好太多了。
→ absony:今天手感不好是事實啦 八投兩中 並不是都沒球 是少了點