[情報] John Sickels' 2014 top 20 prospects

[vg175 (非典型廢言)]

http://0rz.tw/jHaVp

Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a reasonable chance of becoming
stars or superstars. In theory, most Grade A prospects develop into major
league regulars, if injuries or unanticipated problems don't intervene. Note
that is a major "if" in some cases.

A級新秀=頂尖，有合理機會成為球星或超級球星。
如果沒有受傷或意料之外的問題理論上大多數A級新秀都能在MLB固定先發，
注意這個＂如果＂在某些case中是重點。

Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will
develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the
majors, at the very least in a marginal role.

B級新秀有不錯的機會享受成功的職業生涯，有些甚至會長成球星。
大多數都能在MLB打上好幾年，最少也可於大小聯盟間上上下下。

Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something
positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are
just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C
guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Some end up as
role players or bench guys. Many don't make it at all.

C級新秀是最普通的類型。他們有些正面能量但也存在著疑慮，
或只是還離MLB太遠以致無法準確感覺。
少數C級新秀，特別是還在低階層級的能養成球星。
一些能成為role players或板凳，但很多人終究都無法站上MLB。

Also note that there is diversity within each category. I'm a tough grader;
Grade C+ is actually good praise, and some C+ prospects (especially at lower
levels) turn out very well indeed.

也要注意各個類別都有差異。
我是個嚴格的傢伙，C級確實是很好的讚美。
某些C+新秀（特別是低階新秀）的確可以長得非常棒。

Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full
comment in the book for my full opinion about a player, the letter grade only
tells you so much. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very
impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role
player.

最後記住所有評分只是速記而已，
去買書才能看到我所有意見。
一個在新人聯盟的C級球員最後可能將令人驚豔，
而一個在3A的C級球員也許未來只會是個role player。

1) Lucas Giolito, RHP, Grade A-: 
Has the stuff to be a number one starter but I want to see how he holds up to a
full workload coming back from Tommy John and how his changeup develops before
going with a straight A. Even with a few questions to answer, he ranks among
the very elite and with a good season he could be the top pitching prospect in
baseball six months from now. Let's give him some time first.

擁有一號stuff但我要看到他TJ後能投完整個球季，
與上1A前變速球練得如何。
即使問題還有待釐清，他的級別也在超頂尖之上。
未來六個月若能好好表現他將是最好的頂級投手新秀。
先多給他點時間吧。

2) A.J. Cole, RHP, Grade B: 
Borderline B+. Could wind up with B+ depending on how I want to slot him on the
Top 50 pitching prospect list, so I should have a final grade here next week.
Still some concerns about breaking ball consistency but he’s made a lot of
progress over the last year and could develop into a number two starter.

B+邊緣。能不能升到B+得看我把他塞在Top50投手新秀的哪裡，
下週應該就有答案了。
變化球穩定度依舊是問題，但他去年有很大進展，有機會成為二號。

3) Brian Goodwin, OF, Grade B: 
Excellent tools but baseball skills remain erratic/inconsistent, particularly
with his swing mechanics. If a time traveler told me Goodwin became an All-Star
, I’d believe it. I’d also believe it if they told me he became a fifth
outfielder.

超棒tools但skills還是不穩，特別是揮棒機制。
若有未來人告訴我他會成為全星星，我相信；
但如果他們告訴我他是五號外野手我也會相信。

4) Matt Skole, 1B-3B, Grade B-: 
Power/patience hitter not likely to produce a high average in my opinion but
should be productive in OBP and SLG. Needs to shake off rust after missing
almost all of 2013 with wrist/elbow injuries suffered in a harsh collision.

有砲瓦也有耐心，
就我看來不會有高打擊率但應該能提供上壘跟長打。
得從幾乎因傷失落的整個2013年後振作起來。

5) Drew Ward, 3B, Grade B-: 
Another high ceiling power/patience bat, third round pick last year out of
rural Oklahoma, has the arm to remain at third base and his hitting skills have
looked surprisingly polished so far given his background.

另一個高天花板的砲瓦選球棒。
來自奧克拉荷馬鄉下的去年第三輪新秀，
有足夠的臂力續留三壘。
打擊技巧精緻得讓人驚訝，特別是考量到他的出身之後。

6) Michael Taylor, OF, Grade B-: 
Outstanding defensive outfielder, stole 51 bases in High-A last year. Has some
power potential as well, although hitting skills less refined than defense/
baserunning. Contact troubles may prevent high batting average but his broad
base of tools will get him to the majors eventually. I am optimistic about his
bat but it will take more time.

守備傑出的外野手。去年在A+盜壘成功51次，有些砲瓦天賦，
但尚待磨練的打擊技巧還是不如防守跟跑壘。
揮空率可能會導致打擊率無法提升，
但基礎tools終究會引領他上MLB。
我樂觀期待他的棒子不過需要多花些時間。

7) Steven Souza, OF, Grade B-: 
Older prospect turns 25 this month, held back earlier in his career by injuries
, PED suspension, excessive strikeouts, and makeup issues. The Nationals
didn’t give up on him because he has intriguing power/speed combination and
will take a walk. High-shelf tools here and the skills have improved a lot.
Just needs to keep himself together.

本月將滿25歲的老新秀。早期受傷勢，禁藥，過多三振，
跟心理問題阻礙。國民沒有放棄他，因為他有速度有砲瓦也能選保送。
高規格tools就擺在這裡，skills也有不小進步，
只要他自己能維持住就好。

8) Felipe Rivero, LHP, Grade B-: 
Venezuelan lefty acquired in trade with Tampa Bay Rays. I like him better than
the numbers say I should but with command refinements I think he can be a solid
number three or four starter, or at worst a power reliever.

從光芒交易來的委內瑞拉左投。
應該說我喜歡他更勝過這個排名，
只要他能改進控球我想他會是個可靠的三四號，
最壞也會是火球牛。

9) Tony Renda, 2B, Grade B-: 
Undersized 5-8 second baseman from University of California shows baseball
skills, polished hitter with good plate discipline and some gap power,
48-for-57 in steals so far in his career, gets on base, steady glove, terrific
makeup. We need to see him at higher levels but he has outperformed
expectations in college as well as pro ball. Consistently plays above his tools
and I think that will continue.

來自加州大學的矮小的5呎8吋二壘手。
擁有skills，本壘板紀律佳，也能把球打到外野空檔。
生涯到目前為止57次盜壘48次成功。
能上壘，穩定的手套，心理素質也相當了不起。
我們得看他在更高層級會打得如何，
但從大學至職業他已經大大超出預期。
他的表現始終高於tools而我想這也將持續下去。

10) Drew Vettleson, OF, Grade C+: 
Acquired from Rays after he hit just four homers in the Florida State League.
Supplemental first round pick in ’10 has across-the-board average tools, cut
down on his swing and reduced strikeouts last year but lost power in so doing.
Change of scenery could help but off to a slow start in Double-A (3-for-23).

在A+僅擊出四轟後被光芒交易到國民。
來自2010年三明治選秀，擁有全面而平均的tools。
去年減少揮棒以求降低三振但也同時扼殺他的砲瓦，
轉換環境也許有所幫助但今年在2A的起步相當緩慢（23打數僅3安打）。

11) Jake Johansen, RHP, Grade C+: 
Power arm drafted from Dallas Baptist in 2013, second round, can hit 98-99 MPH.
Erratic in college due to shaky secondaries but looked better in New York-Penn
League. Could be very impressive starter if slider and changeup develop
properly with relief a backup option.

2013年第二輪被選進的達拉斯浸信會大學火球男，能催到98-99。
大學時期雖因不穩的第二球種慘遭海扁，但在A-看來好多了。
如果滑球跟變速發展方向正確有機會成為非常優秀的先發，
後援也是預備選項。

12) Eury Perez, OF, Grade C+: 
Very fast, .303 career hitter in Triple-A, good glove. Lack of power and a very
aggressive hitting approach are problematic but even with his present skill
set he should be useful on a bench.

速度非常快，生涯在3A擁有.303打擊率，好手套。
缺乏砲瓦跟過於積極的打擊策略是問題，
但基於他的skill套件他應該能成為有用的板凳。

13) Zach Walters, INF, Grade C+: 
Versatile infielder on defense. Stereotype of a utility infielder is a contact
hitter who lacks power but Walters is more of a Mirror Universe utility-man,
featuring impressive power but lots of strikeouts and a low OBP/batting average
.

能站多個位置的內野手。
通常這種老調工具人多半是缺乏砲瓦的contact hitter，
但Walters更像是從star trek裡跑出來的工具人。
特色是優異的砲瓦，伴隨著一堆三振跟低上壘與低打擊率。

14) Aaron Barrett, RHP, Grade C+: 
University of Mississippi product off to good start in big league bullpen and
has multi-year track record of successful relief work. Velocity has picked up,
command is also much sharper than earlier in his career.

密西西比大學出產。MLB起步得不錯，
也有多年成功的小聯盟牛棚經驗，
球速跟控球比起生涯早年都有所提升。

15) Rafael Bautista, OF, Grade C+: 
Toolsy outfielder from Dominican Republic off to fast start at Low-A Hagerstown
(.343/.395/.486), following up successful ’13 GCL campaign (.322/.400/.391
with 26 steals). Speed stands out but he could develop more punch as he matures
. A bit under the radar right now but I think that will change.

這個來自多明尼加共和國的toolsy外野手去年在GCL相當成功
（.322/.400/.391）。
今年從1A也很快就進入狀況（.343/.395/.486外加26盜）。
速度卓越但他一旦成熟就能提供更全面的表現，
雖然目前還不起眼但我想這將會改變。

16) Sammy Solis, LHP, Grade C+: 
I’d rank him higher if he could stay healthy. Good changeup and breaking ball,
fastball velocity varies depending on health status, knows how to pitch.
Potential number four starter with good makeup if his body lets him do it.

如能保持健康我會給他更高的名次。
變化球跟變速球都夠好，球速依健康程度上下擺盪。
了解如何投球，擁有四號潛能心理素質也很好，
重點還是身體狀況。

17) Blake Treinen, RHP, Grade C: 
Borderline C+ Decent results as a minor league starter but in the bullpen now
and looks like a good contributor in that role, picking up grounders with
fastball and slider. Up to 97 MPH in relief role.

C+邊緣。不錯的小聯盟先發但已經轉到牛棚，
看來能以這個角色作出貢獻。靠速球跟滑球製造滾地，
當RP時能催到97起跳。

18) Jefry Rodriguez, RHP, Grade C: 
Borderline C+: Very projectable high-ceiling arm, 6-5, 185, performed well in
Gulf Coast League last year. Age 20, secondary pitches need development but
could wind up as a guy with a 95-MPH fastball and at least one other plus pitch
. Watch for a breakout in the New York-Penn League, much higher grades possible
eventually.

C+邊緣。非常有希望的高天花板6呎5吋185磅右投，
去年在GCL表現很棒。第二球種還需要磨練，
但可能長成速球95加上至少一種plus球種的投手。
期待他在A-大爆發，也許最後能得到更高的評價。

19) Randy Encarnacion, OF, Grade C: 
Borderline C+: Another GCL guy heading to the NY-P, hit .349/.437/.523 last
year at age 19. Good solid tools across the board. Began his career under the
name Randy Novas.

C+邊緣。去年19歲在GCL打出.349/.437/.523，
今年也將朝A-前進。全面且優秀的tools，
以Randy Novas這名字開始職業生涯。

20) Osvaldo Abreu, SS, Grade C: 
Borderline C+: Another high-ceiling talent from the GCL, impressive defensive
skills with good speed, hit .286/.369/.381 with 16 steals, age 20. Lacks pop
but more may come, another guy to watch in the NY-P for a breakout.

C+邊緣。又一個高天花板的GCL新秀。防守讚速度快，
20歲時打出.286/.369/.381外加16次盜壘成功。
缺乏砲瓦但有機會多長些出來，
也是個可以期待能在A-爆發的傢伙。

OTHERS: 
Dakota Bacus,   RHP; Isaac Ballou,      OF; Robert Benincasa, RHP;
Anderson Franco, 3B; Christian Garcia, RHP; Neil Holland,     RHP;
Destin Hood,     OF; Richie Mirowski,  RHP; Brett Mooneyham,  LHP;
Nic Pivetta,    RHP; Matt Purke,       LHP; Blake Schwartz,   RHP;
Austin Voth,    RHP

This is a system in a transitional phase, as many of their highest-ceiling
prospects are just beginning their careers.

國民農場正處於過渡期，
許多高天花板的新秀才剛開始他們的職業生涯。

The big star here (hopefully) is Lucas Giolito. It feels strange to consider a
Grade A- ranking as "cautious." His talent is immense but I’d like to keep
expectations from getting out of control until we see how he looks later this
year. A.J. Cole has solid potential and there are several bullpen arms that
project well. They could use more depth here, but keep an eye on Jefry
Rodriguez as well as sleeper prospects Austin Voth and Nic Pivetta, who both
have the talent to get out of the "Others" section and vault up the list this
year.

這裡最大最有前途的星星是Lucas Giolito。
將一個A-的新秀標註＂小心＂感覺是有些奇怪，
他的天份無話可說，我會保持期待但不會過分樂觀，
直到我們看見他季末表現如何為止。還可以多增加些深度，
可以注意Jefry Rodriguez跟還不起眼的Austin Voth與Nic Pivetta，
後面兩個都有在今年擠進前20的天份。

The hitting side doesn’t feature any projected stars at this point although
there are quite a few potential regulars. Goodwin, Skole, Taylor, and Souza
should all contribute eventually. All of them have breakout potential but which
one will actually do it? Drew Ward needs more attention than he’s received so
far, and the New York-Penn League team at Auburn should be very intriguing.

目前看不出有能長成球星的打者，但也有少數具先發潛力的選手。
Goodwin，Skole，Taylor，Souza最後都應該長成這樣。
他們都有實力大爆發不過誰真的能爆出來？
Drew Ward需要更多關愛的眼神，而國民的A-也將非常吸引人。

The Nationals do some outside-the-box thinking, bargain hunting in Latin
America for example (although they did spend more money last year, beginning
with third baseman Anderson Franco) and taking gambles on pitchers with injury
histories. That latter strategy has paid dividends in the past and should do so
again with Giolito, although Matt Purke hasn’t panned out as hoped.

國民也朝向外發展的方向思考，
例如在拉美尋找好手（他們去年已經花不少錢在三壘手Anderson Franco身上）
與將籌碼賭在有傷病史的投手。
後者已經開始回收，Giolito應該也是如此，
雖然Matt Purke並未如預期般成功。

Overall I think this is an average system currently but it has the potential to
improve quickly.

總而言之我想目前這是個平均的農場系統，但有潛力快速成長。

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※ 編輯: vg175 (1.34.47.100), 09/18/2014 07:55:00