Re: [情報] John Sickels' 2014 top 20 prospects

[vg175 (非典型廢言)]

Washington Nationals Top 20 2014 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/9/14/6076905/
washington-nationals-top-20-2014-pre-season-prospects-in-review

By John Sickels on Sep 14 2014, 1:15p

引述《vg175 (非典型廢言)》之銘言：

1) Lucas Giolito, RHP, Grade A-:
: Has the stuff to be a number one starter but I want to see how he holds up to a
: full workload coming back from Tommy John and how his changeup develops before
: going with a straight A. Even with a few questions to answer, he ranks among
: the very elite and with a good season he could be the top pitching prospect in
: baseball six months from now. Let's give him some time first.
: 擁有一號stuff但我要看到他TJ後能投完整個球季，
: 與上1A前變速球練得如何。
: 即使問題還有待釐清，他的級別也在超頂尖之上。
: 未來六個月若能好好表現他將是最好的頂級投手新秀。
: 先多給他點時間吧。

Proved he was healthy from Tommy John recovery, 2.20 ERA with 110/28 K/BB in 98
innings for Low-A Hagerstown, 70 hits. All systems look go from here. Age 20.

證明已從TJ術後復原，
1A Hagerstown 98局 2.20ERA 70H 110/28三振保送比
年僅20，可以就此起步。

2) A.J. Cole, RHP, Grade B:
: Borderline B+. Could wind up with B+ depending on how I want to slot him on the
: Top 50 pitching prospect list, so I should have a final grade here next week.
: Still some concerns about breaking ball consistency but he’s made a lot of
: progress over the last year and could develop into a number two starter.
: B+邊緣。能不能升到B+得看我把他塞在Top50投手新秀的哪裡，
: 下週應該就有答案了。
: 變化球穩定度依舊是問題，但他去年有很大進展，有機會成為二號。

Borderline B+. Effective in both Double-A and Triple-A, combined 3.16 ERA with
111/32 K/BB in 134 innings. Ready for a trial next year. Age 22.

B+邊緣，
2A與3A都表現得十分有效率。
2A/3A 134局 3.16ERA 111/32三振保送比
22歲，已經準備好明年挑戰大聯盟。

3) Brian Goodwin, OF, Grade B:
: Excellent tools but baseball skills remain erratic/inconsistent, particularly
: with his swing mechanics. If a time traveler told me Goodwin became an All-Star
: , I’d believe it. I’d also believe it if they told me he became a fifth
: outfielder.
: 超棒tools但skills還是不穩，特別是揮棒機制。
: 若有未來人告訴我他會成為全星星，我相信；
: 但如果他們告訴我他是五號外野手我也會相信。

Hit .219/.342/.328 with 50 walks, 95 strikeouts in 274 at-bats for Triple-A
Syracuse. Disappointing and injury-plagued season, still draws notice for tools
but needs to boost bat. Age 23.

3A 274AB .219/.342/.328 50BB 95SO
不但令人失望還掛病號。
tools依舊引人注目但打擊得加把勁，23歲。

4) Matt Skole, 1B-3B, Grade B-:
: Power/patience hitter not likely to produce a high average in my opinion but
: should be productive in OBP and SLG. Needs to shake off rust after missing
: almost all of 2013 with wrist/elbow injuries suffered in a harsh collision.
: 有砲瓦也有耐心，
: 就我看來不會有高打擊率但應該能提供上壘跟長打。
: 得從幾乎因傷失落的整個2013年後振作起來。

Hit .241/.352/.399 with 14 homers, 78 walks, 127 strikeouts in 461 at-bats for
Double-A Harrisburg, shaking off injury rust after missing almost all of ’13
with wrist injury. Disappointing with power but need to study detailed reports
before commenting further. Age 25.

2A Harrisburg 461AB .241/.352/.399 78BB 127SO
因手腕受傷幾乎錯過整個2013球季後的復出年。
砲瓦令人失望，但要做更遠的預測還需要讀過更進一步的報告。
25歲。

5) Drew Ward, 3B, Grade B-:
: Another high ceiling power/patience bat, third round pick last year out of
: rural Oklahoma, has the arm to remain at third base and his hitting skills have
: looked surprisingly polished so far given his background.
: 另一個高天花板的砲瓦選球棒。
: 來自奧克拉荷馬鄉下的去年第三輪新秀，
: 有足夠的臂力續留三壘。
: 打擊技巧精緻得讓人驚訝，特別是考量到他的出身之後。

Hit .269/.341/.413 with 10 homers, 42 walks, 121 strikeouts in 431 at-bats in
Low-A. Age 19. I think he will improve.

1A 431AB .269/.341/.413 10HR 42BB 121SO
19歲，我認為他會成長。

6) Michael Taylor, OF, Grade B-:
: Outstanding defensive outfielder, stole 51 bases in High-A last year. Has some
: power potential as well, although hitting skills less refined than defense/
: baserunning. Contact troubles may prevent high batting average but his broad
: base of tools will get him to the majors eventually. I am optimistic about his
: bat but it will take more time.
: 守備傑出的外野手。去年在A+盜壘成功51次，有些砲瓦天賦，
: 但尚待磨練的打擊技巧還是不如防守跟跑壘。
: 揮空率可能會導致打擊率無法提升，
: 但基礎tools終究會引領他上MLB。
: 我樂觀期待他的棒子不過需要多花些時間。

Hit combined .304/.390/.526 with 23 homers, 37 steals, 57 walks, 144 strikeouts
in 428 at-bats between Double-A and Triple-A. 3-for-19 in the majors.
Power/speed skills have blossomed and the tools were always here. Age 23.

2A/3A 428AB .304/.390/.526 23HR 37SB 57BB 144SO
MLB 3-for-19
綻放砲瓦與速度而tools一直都在，23歲。

7) Steven Souza, OF, Grade B-:
: Older prospect turns 25 this month, held back earlier in his career by injuries
: , PED suspension, excessive strikeouts, and makeup issues. The Nationals
: didn’t give up on him because he has intriguing power/speed combination and
: will take a walk. High-shelf tools here and the skills have improved a lot.
: Just needs to keep himself together.
: 本月將滿25歲的老新秀。早期受傷勢，禁藥，過多三振，
: 跟心理問題阻礙。國民沒有放棄他，因為他有速度有砲瓦也能選保送。
: 高規格tools就擺在這裡，skills也有不小進步，
: 只要他自己能維持住就好。

Hit .350/.432/.590 with 18 homers, 26 steals, 52 walks, 75 strikeouts in 346
at-bats in Triple-A. 1-for-14 in the majors. Older at age 25 but tools are
sound and skills have developed nicely.

3A 346AB .350/.432/.590 18HR 26SB 52BB 75SO
MLB 1-for-14
25歲年紀不小，但tools響亮而skills也培養得很好。

8) Felipe Rivero, LHP, Grade B-:
: Venezuelan lefty acquired in trade with Tampa Bay Rays. I like him better than
: the numbers say I should but with command refinements I think he can be a solid
: number three or four starter, or at worst a power reliever.
: 從光芒交易來的委內瑞拉左投。
: 應該說我喜歡他更勝過這個排名，
: 只要他能改進控球我想他會是個可靠的三四號，
: 最壞也會是火球牛。

4.12 ERA with 38/18 K/BB in 44 innings for Harrisburg, had injuries but
finished well. Age 23.

2A 44局 4.12ERA 38/18三振保送比
雖然帶傷但球季結尾收得不錯，23歲。

9) Tony Renda, 2B, Grade B-:
: Undersized 5-8 second baseman from University of California shows baseball
: skills, polished hitter with good plate discipline and some gap power,
: 48-for-57 in steals so far in his career, gets on base, steady glove, terrific
: makeup. We need to see him at higher levels but he has outperformed
: expectations in college as well as pro ball. Consistently plays above his tools
: and I think that will continue.
: 來自加州大學的矮小的5呎8吋二壘手。
: 擁有skills，本壘板紀律佳，也能把球打到外野空檔。
: 生涯到目前為止57次盜壘48次成功。
: 能上壘，穩定的手套，心理素質也相當了不起。
: 我們得看他在更高層級會打得如何，
: 但從大學至職業他已經大大超出預期。
: 他的表現始終高於tools而我想這也將持續下去。

Hit .307/.381/.377 with 19 steals, 43 walks, 59 strikeouts in 414 at-bats for
High-A Potomac. Lacks power but an efficient OBP player, age 23.

A+ Potomac 414AB .307/.381/.377 19SB 43BB 59SO
缺乏砲瓦但是個有效率的上壘者，23歲。

10) Drew Vettleson, OF, Grade C+:
: Acquired from Rays after he hit just four homers in the Florida State League.
: Supplemental first round pick in ’10 has across-the-board average tools, cut
: down on his swing and reduced strikeouts last year but lost power in so doing.
: Change of scenery could help but off to a slow start in Double-A (3-for-23).
: 在A+僅擊出四轟後被光芒交易到國民。
: 來自2010年三明治選秀，擁有全面而平均的tools。
: 去年減少揮棒以求降低三振但也同時扼殺他的砲瓦，
: 轉換環境也許有所幫助但今年在2A的起步相當緩慢（23打數僅3安打）。

Another injury case, hit .246/.275/.423 with eight homers, 11 walks, 73
strikeouts in 248 at-bats for Harrisburg. Age 23, looks like a tweener unless
he can develop more power or enhanced OBP skills.

另一個傷痛case。
2A 248AB .246/.275/.423  8HR 11BB 73SO
23歲，除非能強化砲瓦或上壘技巧否則不會有什麼機會。

11) Jake Johansen, RHP, Grade C+:
: Power arm drafted from Dallas Baptist in 2013, second round, can hit 98-99 MPH.
: Erratic in college due to shaky secondaries but looked better in New York-Penn
: League. Could be very impressive starter if slider and changeup develop
: properly with relief a backup option.
: 2013年第二輪被選進的達拉斯浸信會大學火球男，能催到98-99。
: 大學時期雖因不穩的第二球種慘遭海扁，但在A-看來好多了。
: 如果滑球跟變速發展方向正確有機會成為非常優秀的先發，
: 後援也是預備選項。

Age 23, posted 5.19 ERA with 89/55 K/BB in 101 innings in Low-A, 120 hits.
Upper-90s fastball but weak secondaries and shaky command hamper him.

23歲，
1A 101局 120H 5.19ERA 89/55三振保送比
有high-90s速球但第二球種很虛而且控球差勁。

12) Eury Perez, OF, Grade C+:
: Very fast, .303 career hitter in Triple-A, good glove. Lack of power and a very
: aggressive hitting approach are problematic but even with his present skill
: set he should be useful on a bench.
: 速度非常快，生涯在3A擁有.303打擊率，好手套。
: 缺乏砲瓦跟過於積極的打擊策略是問題，
: 但基於他的skill套件他應該能成為有用的板凳。

Hit .311/.372/.406 with 20 steals in 57 games, 212 at-bats for Syracuse. Very
fast, good glove, lacks power, age 24.

13) Zach Walters, INF, Grade C+:
: Versatile infielder on defense. Stereotype of a utility infielder is a contact
: hitter who lacks power but Walters is more of a Mirror Universe utility-man,
: featuring impressive power but lots of strikeouts and a low OBP/batting average
: .
: 能站多個位置的內野手。
: 通常這種老調工具人多半是缺乏砲瓦的contact hitter，
: 但Walters更像是從star trek裡跑出來的工具人。
: 特色是優異的砲瓦，伴隨著一堆三振跟低上壘與低打擊率。

Traded to Cleveland Indians, hit .310/.361/.619 with 17 homers, 20 walks, 67
strikeouts in 268 at-bats in Triple-A, .175/.238/.417 with nine homers, nine
walks, 46 strikeouts in 120 at-bats in the majors. Power stands out, versatile
glove, strikes out a lot, shaky on-base skills, age 25.

14) Aaron Barrett, RHP, Grade C+:
: University of Mississippi product off to good start in big league bullpen and
: has multi-year track record of successful relief work. Velocity has picked up,
: command is also much sharper than earlier in his career.
: 密西西比大學出產。MLB起步得不錯，
: 也有多年成功的小聯盟牛棚經驗，
: 球速跟控球比起生涯早年都有所提升。

Solid year in major league bullpen, 2.87 ERA with 48/19 K/BB in 38 innings.
Should be effective middle man going forward.

MLB 38局 2.87ERA 48/19三振保送比
在大聯盟表現很好，
應能繼續當個有效率的中繼牛。

15) Rafael Bautista, OF, Grade C+:
: Toolsy outfielder from Dominican Republic off to fast start at Low-A Hagerstown
: (.343/.395/.486), following up successful ’13 GCL campaign (.322/.400/.391
: with 26 steals). Speed stands out but he could develop more punch as he matures
: . A bit under the radar right now but I think that will change.
: 這個來自多明尼加共和國的toolsy外野手去年在GCL相當成功
: （.322/.400/.391）。
: 今年從1A也很快就進入狀況（.343/.395/.486外加26盜）。
: 速度卓越但他一旦成熟就能提供更全面的表現，
: 雖然目前還不起眼但我想這將會改變。

Hit .290/.341/.382 with five homers, 69 steals, 33 walks, 72 strikeouts in 487
at-bats in Low-A. Fine campaign, power still developing but speedy, age 21.

1A 487AB .290/.341/.382 5HR 69SB 33BB 72SO
有個不錯的球季，砲瓦還在養但速度有夠快。
21歲。

16) Sammy Solis, LHP, Grade C+:
: I’d rank him higher if he could stay healthy. Good changeup and breaking ball,
: fastball velocity varies depending on health status, knows how to pitch.
: Potential number four starter with good makeup if his body lets him do it.
: 如能保持健康我會給他更高的名次。
: 變化球跟變速球都夠好，球速依健康程度上下擺盪。
: 了解如何投球，擁有四號潛能心理素質也很好，
: 重點還是身體狀況。

Still hampered by health problems, pitched just 18 innings at four levels.

依然傷病纏身。今年四個層級合計只投18局。

17) Blake Treinen, RHP, Grade C:
: Borderline C+ Decent results as a minor league starter but in the bullpen now
: and looks like a good contributor in that role, picking up grounders with
: fastball and slider. Up to 97 MPH in relief role.
: C+邊緣。不錯的小聯盟先發但已經轉到牛棚，
: 看來能以這個角色作出貢獻。靠速球跟滑球製造滾地，
: 當RP時能催到97起跳。

Borderline C+: Solid big league season, 2.18 ERA with 26/11 K/BB in 41 innings,
2.33 GO/AO. Age 26, should take a larger role going forward.

C+邊緣，
MLB 41局 2.18ERA 26/11三振保送比 2.33滾飛比
26歲，今年在大聯盟表現很好，
未來應能獲得更重要的角色。

18) Jefry Rodriguez, RHP, Grade C:
: Borderline C+: Very projectable high-ceiling arm, 6-5, 185, performed well in
: Gulf Coast League last year. Age 20, secondary pitches need development but
: could wind up as a guy with a 95-MPH fastball and at least one other plus pitch
: . Watch for a breakout in the New York-Penn League, much higher grades possible
: eventually.
: C+邊緣。非常有希望的高天花板6呎5吋185磅右投，
: 去年在GCL表現很棒。第二球種還需要磨練，
: 但可能長成速球95加上至少一種plus球種的投手。
: 期待他在A-大爆發，也許最後能得到更高的評價。

Borderline C+: 20 year old projectable prospect, pitched 33 innings between
Hagerstown and short-season Auburn, 4.86 ERA with 20/9 K/BB, 43 hits. Didn’t
pitch after July 1st, need to research this one.

C+邊緣，20歲，還會繼續成長。
A-/1A 33局 4.86ERA 43H 20/9三振保送比
7/1後就沒再出賽過，還要再研究看看。

19) Randy Encarnacion, OF, Grade C:
: Borderline C+: Another GCL guy heading to the NY-P, hit .349/.437/.523 last
: year at age 19. Good solid tools across the board. Began his career under the
: name Randy Novas.
: C+邊緣。去年19歲在GCL打出.349/.437/.523，
: 今年也將朝A-前進。全面且優秀的tools，
: 以Randy Novas這名字開始職業生涯。

Borderline C+: Age 20, hit .216/.272/.311 in 74 at-bats in the Gulf Coast
League but hit .349/.437/.523 at the same level in 2013. Another one for the
research list.

C+邊緣，
GCL 74AB .216/.272/.311
但去年同層級三圍可是.349/.437/.523。
另一個需要再研究的對象。

20) Osvaldo Abreu, SS, Grade C:
: Borderline C+: Another high-ceiling talent from the GCL, impressive defensive
: skills with good speed, hit .286/.369/.381 with 16 steals, age 20. Lacks pop
: but more may come, another guy to watch in the NY-P for a breakout.
: C+邊緣。又一個高天花板的GCL新秀。防守讚速度快，
: 20歲時打出.286/.369/.381外加16次盜壘成功。
: 缺乏砲瓦但有機會多長些出來，
: 也是個可以期待能在A-爆發的傢伙。

Borderline C+: Age 20, hit .229/.279/.305 with 10 steals, nine walks, 41
strikeouts in 210 at-bats for Auburn. I thought he was a breakout candidate but
it didn’t happen. Good tools but bat is currently weak.

C+邊緣，20歲。
A- 210AB .229/.279/.305 10SB 9BB 41SO
我認為他是個breakout候選人但沒發生。
tools讚不過目前打擊能力孱弱。

: OTHERS:
: Dakota Bacus,   RHP; Isaac Ballou,      OF; Robert Benincasa, RHP;
: Anderson Franco, 3B; Christian Garcia, RHP; Neil Holland,     RHP;
: Destin Hood,     OF; Richie Mirowski,  RHP; Brett Mooneyham,  LHP;
: Nic Pivetta,    RHP; Matt Purke,       LHP; Blake Schwartz,   RHP;
: Austin Voth,    RHP
: This is a system in a transitional phase, as many of their highest-ceiling
: prospects are just beginning their careers.
: 國民農場正處於過渡期，
: 許多高天花板的新秀才剛開始他們的職業生涯。
: The big star here (hopefully) is Lucas Giolito. It feels strange to consider a
: Grade A- ranking as "cautious." His talent is immense but I’d like to keep
: expectations from getting out of control until we see how he looks later this
: year. A.J. Cole has solid potential and there are several bullpen arms that
: project well. They could use more depth here, but keep an eye on Jefry
: Rodriguez as well as sleeper prospects Austin Voth and Nic Pivetta, who both
: have the talent to get out of the "Others" section and vault up the list this
: year.
: 這裡最大最有前途的星星是Lucas Giolito。
: 將一個A-的新秀標註＂小心＂感覺是有些奇怪，
: 他的天份無話可說，我會保持期待但不會過分樂觀，
: 直到我們看見他季末表現如何為止。還可以多增加些深度，
: 可以注意Jefry Rodriguez跟還不起眼的Austin Voth與Nic Pivetta，
: 後面兩個都有在今年擠進前20的天份。
: The hitting side doesn’t feature any projected stars at this point although
: there are quite a few potential regulars. Goodwin, Skole, Taylor, and Souza
: should all contribute eventually. All of them have breakout potential but which
: one will actually do it? Drew Ward needs more attention than he’s received so
: far, and the New York-Penn League team at Auburn should be very intriguing.
: 目前看不出有能長成球星的打者，但也有少數具先發潛力的選手。
: Goodwin，Skole，Taylor，Souza最後都應該長成這樣。
: 他們都有實力大爆發不過誰真的能爆出來？
: Drew Ward需要更多關愛的眼神，而國民的A-也將非常吸引人。
: The Nationals do some outside-the-box thinking, bargain hunting in Latin
: America for example (although they did spend more money last year, beginning
: with third baseman Anderson Franco) and taking gambles on pitchers with injury
: histories. That latter strategy has paid dividends in the past and should do so
: again with Giolito, although Matt Purke hasn’t panned out as hoped.
: 國民也朝向外發展的方向思考，
: 例如在拉美尋找好手（他們去年已經花不少錢在三壘手Anderson Franco身上）
: 與將籌碼賭在有傷病史的投手。
: 後者已經開始回收，Giolito應該也是如此，
: 雖然Matt Purke並未如預期般成功。
: Overall I think this is an average system currently but it has the potential to
: improve quickly.
: 總而言之我想目前這是個平均的農場系統，但有潛力快速成長。

The most important news for the Nationals farm system in 2014: Lucas Giolito
showed what he can do when he’s healthy. Other positives include valuable big
league pitching contributions from Aaron Barrett and Blake Treinen, outstanding
performance in the upper minors from outfield prospects Michael Taylor and
Steven Souza, and the emergence of pitching prospect Austin Voth (rated as a
sleeper pre-season, he posted a 2.77 ERA with a 133/38 K/BB in 127 innings at
three levels) as one of the rapid risers from the 2013 draft.

國民農場2014年最重要的新聞是Lucas Giolito展現出健康時有多棒。
其它正面訊息包括在大聯盟呈現相當價值的Aaron Barrett與Blake Treinen，
小聯盟高階表現突出的外野手Michael Taylor及Steven Souza，
以及竄出的投手新秀Austin Voth：
季前評為sleeper，
三層級合計127局 2.77ERA 133/38三振保送比
他也是快速崛起的2013梯新秀之一。

22-year-old infielder Wilmer Difo had a fine season in Low-A, hitting
.315/.360/.470 with 14 homers and 49 steals, taking some of the sting out of
weak seasons from Randy Encarnacion and Osvaldo Abreu. Another positive came
from toolsy outfielder Destin Hood, who has tempted scouts for years and
finally came through with a .298/.348/.460 season between Syracuse and
Harrisburg.

22歲內野手Wilmer Difo今年在1A三圍.315/.360/.470 14HR 49SB
從表現不佳的Randy Encarnacion與Osvaldo Abreu身上撈走一些目光。
另一個正面消息是toolsy外野手Destin Hood，
多年來都能引起球探興趣，
今年終於打出2A/3A合計三圍.298/.348/460。

The 2014 draft class adds UNLV right-hander Erick Fedde, who hopes to duplicate
what Giolito did recovering from Tommy John, and highly-regarded catching
prospect Jakson Reetz.

2014選秀會後加入UNLV右投Erick Fedde，
希望複製像Giolito那樣的TJ術後成功。
另外高評價的捕手新秀Jakson Reetz同樣出自今年選秀會。

On the negative side, there were several key injuries as noted above. Brian
Goodwin did not have a good season. Matt Purke has gone the opposite direction
from Giolito with his health issues.

不好的一面是有許多需要注意的病號。
Brian Goodwin今年表現不佳，
Matt Purke也走向與Giolito相反的道路。

Pre-season, the farm system ranked slightly below average at number 22, clearly
in a transitional phase. I think enough positive things occurred to move them
up into the middle ranks, although we’ll have to see where things stand after
full analysis of all systems during the winter.

季前農場評價是稍遜於平均的22名，顯然處於過度階段。
儘管今年冬天還得先完成所有球隊的系統分析才能下定論，
我想還是有足夠的正面訊息顯示國民農場正往中間靠攏。

另外Sickels也有回顧季前被排進sleepers新秀的本季表現，
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/10/3/6904811/
2014-sleeper-alert-list-review-part-one
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/10/4/6908219/
2014-sleeper-alert-list-review-part-two-letters-m-through-z
國民農場有三位選手入選季前sleepers。

Osvaldo Abreu, SS, Washington Nationals:
Age 20, hit .229/.279/.305 with 10 steals, nine walks, 41 strikeouts in 210
at-bats for Auburn in the New York-Penn League. Weak season with the bat and
his glove was rather disappointing as well. From the Dominican Republic.

20歲。
A- 210AB .229/.279/.305 10SB 9BB 41SO
棒子跟手套都比令人失望還更糟糕，
來自多明尼加共合國。

Rafael Bautista, OF, Washington Nationals:
Age 21, hit .290/.341/.382 with 69 steals, 33 walks, 72 strikeouts in 487
at-bats for Low-A Hagerstown. More power would be nice but the speed is
standout, a successful jump from rookie ball. From the Dominican Republic.

21歲。
1A 487AB .290/.341/.382 69SB 33BB 72SO
砲瓦多點會更好不過速度超群，
從rookie ball層級有成功的出發。
來自多明尼加共合國。

Austin Voth, RHP, Washington Nationals:
Age 22, excellent season, 2.77 ERA with 133/38 K/BB in 127 innings between
Low-A Hagerstown, High-A Potomac, Double-A Harrisburg. Low-90s fastball,
sometimes faster, sharp control, good breaking ball. Fifth round pick in 2013
from University of Washington.

22歲，球季表現精采。
1A/A+/2A 127局 2.77ERA 133/38三振保送比
速球low-90s，有時會更快一些；
控球犀利，有不錯的變化球。
2013年第五輪來自University of Washington。

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