[情報] 90W TCFA

[tytony (混沌的大氣)]

原文    http://ppt.cc/8pCD
預測圖  http://ppt.cc/IPyr

WTPN21 PGTW 022000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.0N 148.2E TO 12.0N 143.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 021732Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.5N 147.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 148E
IS NOW  LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 147.7E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM SOUTHEAST OF
GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY-
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH ADDITIONAL
FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTERLY WIND BURST FEEDING
INTO THE SYSTEM AS EVIDENT IN THE 021210Z ASCAT PASS. A 021609Z AMSU
89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD
AND POORLY DEFINED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES STEADY INTENSIFICATION AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
032000Z.//
NNNN

--
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→ airua       :擦邊球?
推 ZEALOTGO    :一路向北掰掰啦
推 chiy16      :jma發布颱風生成預告 另外似乎有冷低通過巴士海峽
推 chiy16      :jtwc升格為08W
推 killseven   :應該不是擦邊球  目前預報是遠海轉北
→ killseven   :而另一個低壓似乎減弱了  真是皆大歡喜 都躲過
推 chiy16      :氣象局7號8號改外圍環流 似乎不認為會那麼偏東
→ chiy16      :還有變數 偏東或更靠近等形成颱風結構穩定後再說
→ keroromoa   :勿忘菲特
推 vaughn      :這時間評斷會有多靠近還太早
推 bking       :浣熊？...............
推 albert0208  :觀望中
推 wsderfgt    :目前預測都是日本貨
推 markshian   :準浣熊可能要以巔峰之姿直接衝擊那霸=_=,近幾年似乎
→ markshian   :很多大強颱直接侵襲那霸,天佑琉球群島
→ markshian   :不過對台灣的影響還是要觀察,畢竟還沒順利轉上去之前
→ markshian   :,還是留意些好@"@
推 AruBan      :好喜歡壯壯的熊~~(羞
→ hsr7016     :這隻熊要直接來台依現在來看可能性不高
→ hsr7016     :至於影響多大就看到時高壓強度吧@@(希望不要來)
推 killseven   :越強越容易轉上去  對台灣也越好  現在高壓還不夠強
→ killseven   :大到把這隻泰迪熊壓著死死的 如果八月就難說了
推 aa1477888   :還早(茶)
推 s0614xxs    :所以台灣又要吃沉降氣流了?
推 markshian   :不一定是沉降,剛任伯伯提到,下周一可能受到外圍環流
→ markshian   :影響,帶來些偏北風,迎風面可能短暫陣雨且溫度略降...
推 ZEALOTGO    :不會來啦 高壓不可能強那麼多天
→ Imhuang     :北部可以稍微喘息一下了
推 killseven   :外圍雲系的確有機會影響  但本體說真的應該機率不大
→ killseven   :不過這隻泰迪熊可能會很大隻 哈哈  期待中
推 Bioee       :希望帶來些北風，解酷暑
推 Laincast    :這時節北風消不了暑 冷空氣已退縮到北方
→ Laincast    :這與九月初颱風從台灣東方北上 能引導冷空氣南下不同
推 markshian   :下午EC系集出爐，最西點到台灣，但大部分還是在那霸
→ markshian   :一帶北上
推 aa1477888   :怪了 NRL和FNMOC的TC頁面都連不上去
推 aa1477888   :08W環境場還不錯 幅散幅合都很好 只是範圍有點大
→ aa1477888   :好像有拉扯到91W 會把他吃掉吧...
推 aa1477888   :CWB WRF那個線也太嚇人了XDDD
→ aa1477888   :https://i.imgur.com/d4fTPJy.gif
推 ej03xu3     :區預模式很容易高估 參考就好阿
→ youngscott  :這隻真早就被判定不來了 以往都還要觀察幾天...
推 web2312     :多國數值模式統整  (白線為平均)
→ web2312     :http://i.minus.com/icgObFKfGTR0W.png
推 web2312     :JMA_TEPS颱風模式系集預測
→ web2312     :http://i.minus.com/iUs4WOePcKpeO.png
→ hsr7016     :看來是走日本了 在菲律賓的低壓如果沒掛應該也不會
→ hsr7016     :對路徑造成多大影響了吧?
推 tony77998   :不要阿  下禮拜要去日本T_T
推 Jack10      :影響台灣最大時是幾號呢
推 aa1477888   :要看颱風本身夠不夠大隻才知道隊台灣的影響程度
→ aa1477888   :如果路徑沒有明顯西修 問題就不大了
推 killseven   :越大隻也越容易偏北  其實...各有利弊
→ killseven   :看起來這隻泰迪熊會又強又大  影響可能外圍有機會吧
→ killseven   :本來看起來目前各家預報...那距離應該影響不到
→ tytony      :週一到週三比較接近 外圍雲系有機會帶來些雨
推 muching     :91W殺進巴士海峽了
推 AruBan      :肉熊哩來來來~