[情報] 92W TCFA

[v63718x4 ()]

警報原網址：http://goo.gl/ncJhd9

圖：http://goo.gl/GlTt8A

WTPN21 PGTW 100730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.5N 152.7E TO 12.9N 146.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 100700Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.9N 151.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8N
152.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 151.7E, APPROXIMATELY 455 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 100608Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH
FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. AN OLDER 092308Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED 10 TO 15 KNOT CIRCULATION AND ISOLATED 20 TO
25 KNOT WIND BARBS OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL OUTFLOW, ONE ENHANCED BY
A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND A WESTWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH. NUMERIC WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS DEVELOP THIS
DISTURBANCE IN VARYING DEGREES WITH THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BEING GFS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO
PERSISTENT CONVECTION, IMPROVING ORGANZIATION AND FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110730Z.
//
NNNN

最近西太越來越熱鬧了XD

這隻看起來前景大好阿......準雷馬遜(Rammasun，原意為雷神)!!

reference:
颱風命名, http://goo.gl/sWutAe
聯合颱風警報中心, http://goo.gl/zFhE57

--
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※ 文章網址: http://www.ptt.cc/bbs/TY_Research/M.1404979960.A.A85.html
推 killseven   :索爾要來了嗎...?? 不過時間距離尚遠  持續觀察
推 maverick01  :太平洋高壓強弱是關鍵...會...退嗎
→ v63718x4    :目前看GFS的預測明顯往台灣來 不過變數大 觀望吧
推 keroromoa   :這隻目前在強度和路徑上都有分歧，雖然環流小但通過
→ keroromoa   :的是浣熊之前經過的海域，而路徑從通過巴海到琉球轉
→ keroromoa   :向去日本都有數值跑出，唯一可以確定的是小鋼砲一枚
→ keroromoa   :目前大多數看好的是具有一定強度，路徑有可能像02年
推 aa1477888   :因為太遠了 這段期間高壓的推移變化太大
→ aa1477888   :台灣要中就現在高壓夠強讓他平西 快到的時候慢慢退
推 aa1477888   :讓它轉上來 不然就是強度夠且剛好突破在台灣上空的弱
→ aa1477888   :點 反正時間還很長數會東調西調的...
→ v63718x4    :現在就慢慢觀察這隻雷神了!!
推 AruBan      :v6你做的颱風命名表好像漏了雷伊的港譯阿希望能補上
→ v63718x4    :那個是台灣颱風資訊中心的資料 所以我沒辦法改XD
→ v63718x4    :香港翻譯好像也叫做雷伊 應該是還好啦~
推 markshian   :發展得頗迅速，未來接上季風加持，範圍蠻有機會擴大
推 Eeli2008    :CWB暫時一周畫成會接近菲律賓東方
推 hsr7016     :等他靠近一點再看看@@
推 keroromoa   :CWB的數值也放上92W了，目前跑出通過巴海，可能被呂
→ keroromoa   :宋吸引，另外GFS略為東調