[新聞] GOP strategists mull McCain ‘blowout’

[swallow73 (吃素，減碳，救地球)]

這篇共和黨選舉專家預測McCain在普選票有可能小贏或小輸，但在
選舉人票計算上壓勝的分析看來是有一定程度的說服力。

不過我認為共和黨也沒有絕對樂觀的理由。

首先是雖然2/5號當天，McCain即篤定拿下提名，民主黨仍陷入纏鬥狀態
至今，不過McCain似乎並沒能因此拉開在民調上的領先差距。
2/10號Obama vs McCain的RCP民調平均是47%:43.7%；目前是47%:44%。雖然在
這幾個月中的幾個時間點有趕上並超前，不過現在看來等於是又回到原
點。情勢在民主黨提名抵定後會有何轉變是值得觀察的。

當然共和黨策士說的是選舉人票爭奪上的優勢，不過就幾個常被提到的
swing state各別民調來看，對民主黨而言，Michigan的確是比較脆弱，
雖然目前RCP平均仍由Obama略為領先，不過最新的民調McCain已領先
1%；另外Florida McCain守的很穩，平均有8.3%的領先，Pennsylvania
方面Obama的領先雖然比McCain在Florida略少，不過仍然相當穩定。
值得注意的是，McCain vs Obama的對戰中McCain一向占上風的Ohio，最
新的SurveyUSA民調，McCain已呈39%:48%落後。Survey USA在該州的民
調McCain是由3/14的7%領先降到四月上半的2%，目前又落後了8%。如果
同樣的趨勢持續下去，Obama又奪回在Michigan的領先；McCain在選舉
人票的競爭上應該還是很難獨走。


標題:GOP strategists mull McCain 'blowout’

新聞來源:http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10585.html                                 (需有正確連結)

It sounds crazy at first. Amid dire reports about the toxic political
environment for Republican candidates and the challenges facing John McCain,
many top GOP strategists believe he can defeat Barack Obama — and by a
margin exceeding President Bush’s Electoral College victory in 2004.

At first blush, McCain’s recent rough patch and the considerable financial
disadvantage confronting him make such predictions seem absurd. Indeed, as
Republicans experience their worst days since Watergate, those same GOP
strategists are reticent to publicly tout the prospect of a sizable McCain
victory for fear of looking foolish.

But the contours of the electoral map, combined with McCain’s unique
strengths and the nature of Obama’s possible vulnerabilities, have led to a
cautious and muted optimism that McCain could actually surpass Bush’s
35-electoral-vote victory in 2004. Though they expect he would finish far
closer to Obama in the popular vote, the thinking is that he could win by as
many 50 electoral votes.

By post-war election standards, that margin is unusually small. Yet it’s
considerably larger than either Bush’s 2004 victory or his
five-electoral-vote win in 2000.

“A win by 40 or 50 electoral votes would be an astonishing upset, just a
watershed event with all the issues that were stacked against him from the
very beginning,” said David Woodard, a Republican pollster and Clemson
University political science professor. “But it could happen. I know this
seems like wishful thinking by Republicans. I’m thinking that Republicans
could win by 40 electoral votes. But I dare not say it,” he added. “
Certainly what is possible could come to pass.”

A top strategist with the Republican National Committee, who asked that his
name be withheld to speak candidly, explained that by his own examination, “
we’re actually sitting pretty well in most states.”

“There are a lot of scenarios that look good for McCain, and I almost would
go so far to say that there are a lot more scenarios [than for Obama],” the
strategist added. “I don’t think anybody over here wants to let themselves
get too excited about it. It is an eternity between now and November. But
McCain looks a lot stronger than our prospects as a party.”

It is virtually impossible to find an established GOP strategist who believes
McCain will win in a landslide. But in light of the circumstances, more than
a few Republicans are pleasantly surprised to find that McCain is at all
situated to defeat Obama.

“The broader environment clearly favors the Democrat,” said Whit Ayers,
another veteran GOP pollster. But Ayers argued that “a state-by-state
analysis actually makes McCain a narrow favorite to win the Electoral College
majority.”

“That would certainly run against the grain of history, if he pulled that
off,” Ayers added. “But it’s also clearly plausible and a manageable
outcome partly because of John McCain’s strength among independents and
partly because of Obama’s weakness in culture, ideology and association.”

Some Republican strategists can envision a scenario in which Obama wins the
popular vote but loses in the Electoral College — he might galvanize
Southern black turnout, for example, but still fail to switch a state in the
region.

Among the 10 strategists interviewed by Politico for this story, there was
near-uniform belief that had any other Republican been nominated, the party’
s prospects in November would be nil.

“No disrespect to the other candidates,” said GOP pollster Glen Bolger, “
but if anyone else had been nominated we’d be toast.”


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■所有荷蘭人如果每週一天不吃肉，就可達到荷蘭政府希望家家戶戶一年所減少的二氧化
碳排放量目標。
■南美洲約有四億公頃的黃豆作物是種給牛吃的；如果是提供給人類食用，則只需兩千五
百萬公頃就可以滿足全世界所需。
「不吃肉、騎腳踏車、少消費，就可協助遏止全球暖化。」 by Dr. Rajendra Pachauri

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推 ncyc:目前狀況下，個人是不覺得任何競爭者能夠在選舉人票上面獨走
推 hawardhsz:看一些新聞台的評論 說萬一BO獲得提名 他們要重新介紹BO
→ hawardhsz:給選民認識 以爭取藍領勞工階級支持...哈 太可笑了 最好
→ hawardhsz:有這麼多美國時間可以去重新開始 之前負面的新聞EX:牧師
→ hawardhsz:BO太太白目發言 不戴美國國旗胸章 Elite發言.....
→ hawardhsz:當之前選民是白癡就對了 現在一筆勾銷 重新來 要他們拋
→ hawardhsz:棄成見 重新認識BO 然後11月去投票給他 哈 天真到可怕!!
→ hawardhsz:BO現在的領先還不都是靠2~3月 負面新聞報出來前 跟媒體
→ hawardhsz:聯合一起騙出來的 可憐的HC包袱太多又不討媒體歡心 唉~