[外電] Rodney's Fortune On Called Strikes

[JakeMcGee (Jake McGee)]

Other Side Of The Coin: Rodney's Fortune On Called Strikes
Sam Waters |  Friday, May 18, 2012 At 2:18AM

http://tinyurl.com/7mqcsad

Fernando Rodney has been one of this season's most pleasant surprises in
relief, as Mr. Golebiewski noted yesterday. An average to below-average
pitcher for most of his career (4.13 ERA, 4.07 FIP), Rodney suddenly sports a
0.48 ERA with 9.16 K/9 and 1.45 BB/9 through the first quarter of the 2012
season. The strikeouts are not too far out of line with his career profile,
but the lack of walks are shocking from a guy who has never flashed even
average control. His career BB/9 is 4.73, so the main question here is the
sustainability of Rodney's newfound command.

Rodney是這季RP裡的亮點。一位生涯ERA低於聯盟平均的RP(4.13ERA)
目前繳出0.48ERA 9.16 K/9 1.45 BB/9 的亮麗成績
他的K/9看起來跟生涯差不多 但~是~~Rodney生涯BB/9是驚人的 4.73
所以他的成績是否能夠維持 要看他的控球

One good indicator of truly improved command would be an increase in number
of pitches thrown in the strike zone. From 2008 to 2011, Rodney's respective
Zone Percentages (Pitches in Strike Zone/Pitches) were 48.2%, 51.2%, 49.7%,
46.2%. This year he finds himself at 48.6%, which doesn't seem at all out of
line with his previous rates. So if Rodney is not getting the ball in the
zone more often, what is he doing differently?

一個好的觀測投手控球方式 就是看投手投進好球帶的數量。
從Rodney過往的數據來看

2008   48.2%
2009   51.2%
2010   49.7%
2011   46.2%   (並不超過5成)

那這季呢?   48.6%  並沒有看出來他控球有變好
所以為什麼Rodney投進好球帶差不多的好球 但是BB卻下降?

Golebiewski does a great job of covering one of the main changes- batters are
chasing more of Rodney's pitches out of the zone, turning would-be balls
into strikes. But Rodney has seen another key change in his profile that is
playing an important role in his success.  He has recorded a called strike
rate of 17.2% on pitches taken out of the zone. Assuming that the In Depth
Baseball platform is both accurate and unbiased in its pitch location
tendencies, 17.2% of these pitches are “missed calls”- called strikes that
should have been balls. Out of 305 pitchers with at least 100 pitches outside
of the zone, Rodney stands at tenth in called strike rate (Brett Lawrie got
some first-hand experience with Rodney's luck on called strikes this week,
and was not too pleased about it.) For Rodney to sustain such a low walk
rate, he is going to have to continue to get the same amount of leeway from
umpires that he has been receiving up to this point.

Golebiewski這位先生發現了驚人的事實?! 1.就是打者增加了去打Rodney壞球的次數
2.更重要的是 被主審判定是好球的 有「17.2%」是在好球帶外面的。

在305位投手中(都至少投在好球帶外100球以上) 壞球被判好球排名 Rodney在前十傑
[Lawrie就是受害者之一]

Many pitchers do consistently get more respect than others from umpires when
it comes to the fringe of the strike zone. Mariano Rivera, for example, has
always gotten some breathing room from umps, posting above-average called
strike rates on pitches outside of the zone every year since 2008 (when In
Depth's data starts). A player's pitch selection can also affect this rate,
as certain types of pitches are called incorrectly more often. The problem is
that Fernando Rodney has never demonstrated an affinity for getting generous
calls on pitches outside of the strike zone.

主審有時候會對某些球員投在好球帶邊緣的球更尊重(也就是會多判好球)
(當然這些球員具備一致且良好的控球)
舉例: Mariano Rivera，  Mo自從2008年以來被判好球大概高於平均一些
另外打擊者的選球當然也會影響主審的判定

問題是Rodney從來就不是這樣的球員 也沒有近似的情形

Rodney's Pitches Outside of the Strike Zone
        G    P    PA   ClStk%
2012   18   133   27   17.2%

2011   39   332   67   4.2%
2010   72   643  131   6.1%
2009   72   650  127   7.5%
2008   36   388   80   9.2%

Total 237  2146  432   7.4%

His career called strike rate of 7.4% outside the zone is significantly lower
than his 2012 rate of 17.4%. The heat maps below do a good job of
demonstrating the difference between the more familiar Rodney of old and the
Rodney of 2012 in their luck with strike calls. The first map shows the calls
Rodney has gotten this year in a sample of just 133 pitches, while the second
map shows Rodney’s calls received over the previous four seasons with a
sample of about 2,000 pitches:

他的生涯投在好球帶外面被判好球大概是7.4% 遠低於今年的17.4%
下方的圖可以更清楚表示出2012年版的Rodney跟舊的Rodney的差別
但今年他的樣本是133球 但前四季是2000球的樣本

2012, Outside of Strike Zone
http://tinyurl.com/7wzwqx3

2008-2011, Outside of Strike Zone
http://tinyurl.com/7cvlnny

If Rodney regresses from the results of the first map to those of the second,
or even to a middle ground around the league average of 10%, he should
experience a precipitous decline in strikes and a corresponding rise in
walks. Just remember that this comes with a caveat- if Rodney really has
changed his approach and is, for example, getting a lot more movement on his
pitches, it is possible that umpires will continue to have a difficult time
calling his pitches correctly. One adjustment that stands out is Rodney's
decision to transfer about 7% of his arsenal from change-ups to fastballs. A
look at pitchers over the last five years shows that fastballs outside the
zone are called strikes at an above average rate (about 12%), while
change-ups outside the zone are called strikes at a below average rate (about
8%). While this might explain some of Rodney's jump in incorrect strike
calls, it doesn't seem to justify a 10% leap.

如果Rodney從一張圖移動到第二張圖 或是移動到聯盟平均的10%
他將會面臨到BB增加的問題

但是記得 如果Rodney真的改變了他投球方式 讓他的球有更多的位移
那麼主審很可能繼續在判壞球還是好球的困境中
Rodney今年也增加使用直球的數量
在近五年的分析中 直球投到好球帶外被判成好球的機率是12%(高於平均)
變速球投到好球帶被判成好球的機率則是8%(低於平均)

當然這可以是Rodney被判好球增加的原因 但不太可能增加10%

It will be interesting to see if Rodney's strikeout rate on would-be balls
regresses to the mean over the rest of the season. Even if this initial spike
was just a result of luck or randomness, it is plausible that Rodney's
early-season success translates to umpires giving him the same respect over
the rest of the season that they give pitchers like Mariano Rivera.

如果剩下的賽季中Rodney "被判好球的壞球"調整回平均 那他的三振率將會很有趣

就算Rodney一開始的數據是幸運或是隨機
不能把它看成Rodney剩下的球季有了等同Mo被主審青睞的程度

Continuing along this line of speculation, if Rodney continues to get an
expanded strike zone, hitters may be forced to continue chasing pitches
outside of the zone, compounding the positive effect of Rodney's luck on
called strikes. But if umpires start to call a “normal” size strike zone
for Rodney, this could lead to an adjustment by hitters, as they no longer
feel compelled to chase balls. This would leave Rodney with both less called
strikes and less swinging strikes.

如果Rodney持續擁有比較大的好球帶 那麼打者將會去追打原本好球帶以外的球
這將會加強Rodney投壞球卻被判好球的結果
但如果主審開始回復「原本大小」的好球帶 也會讓打者去做揮擊上的調整(不去追打壞球)

Of course, it is important to remember that this is mostly educated
guesswork. The only real takeaway here is simply that umpires are calling a
lot of strikes for Fernando Rodney on pitches that should probably be balls.
There are plenty of reasons to declare this change an aberration, but it is
not impossible that Rodney keeps this up. Just don't be too surprised if
umpires start giving him a normal amount of leeway outside the zone, his BB/9
settles in closer to his career rates, and Fernando Rodney, closer
extraordinaire, doesn't look quite so dominant by September.

當然 很重要的 你必須知道 這只是猜測
事實是主審舉了很多原本是壞球的球 還有很多原因會導致這樣的結果
但是他不太可能繼續保持這樣的成績
然後別太訝異 主審開始會給他正常的好球帶

====
Jose Molina接補統計文章
http://tinyurl.com/84k93zo
之前有版友分享過就不再翻譯
====

是不是摸二哥接補讓Rodney變強? 不管你信不信

反正我是信了

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) 
◆ From: 1.171.108.232
推 maxspeed150:Rodney一直都是抖到爆的控球啊......
推 cd12631:摸二哥:手套移一次10鎂
推 bio91:原文居然一個字沒提Molina
推 yeng1217:摸二哥這麼幫忙也不到50%
※ JakeMcGee:轉錄至看板 Rays                                       05/24 13:43
推 hunterqiji:非常清楚的記得Rodney對紅襪的最後一個人時
→ hunterqiji:用5顆壞球K掉了Cody Ross. 當時Ross極其憤怒。
推 ForgerEames:這文章好專業。
推 richard1003:所以只能說今年特別有愛?
推 PTTerme:最後一段意思是主審像老師看到好成績學生寫的就自動打鉤？
推 ohmyya:印象是帽子戴歪歪
→ SULICon:               雙手插口袋
→ sdiaa:大牌投手好球帶是會比較大阿 不過Rodney...
推 Alif:最後一段應該是說等老師發現被耍的時候，就會盯得比較緊...
推 kauw:去年大翻薯翻板? 跟魔鬼談好條件?
→ god2:裁判被鞭慘了
推 linmelissa:二哥實在太...ˊ_>ˋ
→ EEERRIICC:火哥表示:
推 KI780804:喜歡她的拉弓
推 dufflin:怎麼沒有訪問一下Lawrie
推 star01:(賽後) R: 裁判走吃宵夜啦