[情報] Will Dice-K suffer the same fate as past JAP flameouts?

[Westmoreland (Westmoreland)]

http://0rz.tw/rvvfb

The Red Sox can blame the World Baseball Classic all they want for the
shoulder fatigue of right-hander Daisuke Matsuzaka, and to a certain degree,
they do have a point. It wasn't so much that Matsuzaka threw 65, 86 and 98
pitches in his three WBC starts -- with seven and six days of rest between
his second and third starts, respectively. That workload is not excessive.

What concerned the Red Sox even before those starts was that the club had no
control over Matsuzaka's training regimen. After throwing 408 innings and
pitching deep into the postseason two straight years -- when Boston wanted to
give his body more recovery time, as Tampa Bay did with its starters coming
off a long 2008 season -- Matsuzaka reported not to Boston's camp but to
Japan's WBC camp on Feb. 15. The club's attempts to monitor his throwing
program were futile, giving way to Japan's national fervor to win another WBC.

The Red Sox, however, better hope it is only the WBC that caused Matsuzaka's
fatigue. When Boston placed him on the disabled list, I thought not only
about the WBC, but also about a story I did about Matsuzaka prior to the 2007
season, his first in the majors after a distinguished, and grueling, career
in Japan. What stuck with me is how both the Red Sox and Scott Boras, the
agent for Matsuzaka, were concerned about the ominous track record of
Japanese starting pitchers when they jump to the big leagues. Both the club
and the agent knew about a pattern in which Japanese starters have success in
the majors for a year or two, but wear down in years three and four.

"The greatest concern is ensuring his health," Boras said then, "not just
this year but over the life of the contract and beyond. The history of the
Japanese [starting] pitchers who have come here is concerning."

The Red Sox, who study these things exhaustively, correlated the decline to
age, with the dropoff occurring in the early 30s. But general manager Theo
Epstein, when asked about the trend of third and fourth year declines, said,
"We may be talking about a similar thing, just measured differently."

Matsuzaka was 26 when he joined the big leagues, the same age as when Hideo
Nomo made his jump. The other relevant comparisons are Kaz Ishii (28 when he
joined MLB), Hideki Irabu (28) and Masato Yoshii (33).

Nomo, Ishii, Irabu and Yoshii all had initial success. But the third and
fourth seasons became treacherous. Nomo was much worse in his third year and
released by the Dodgers in his fourth year. Ishii was done after his fourth
year. Irabu made only five more starts after his fourth year. Yoshii was
released after his third year.

Here is one way to measure the track record that concerned Boras two years
ago. I took the combined stats for the pitchers in question for their first
two seasons. (In the case of Irabu, who made only nine starts in his first
season, 1997, I took his 1997-99 numbers.) Then I compared those numbers to
how they pitched in their third season. Take a look at the comparison:



STAT COMPARISON        SEASONS 1-2           SEASON 3

Pitcher             W-L    ERA   K/9     W-L    ERA   K/9

Hideki Irabu       29-20  4.80   7.2     2- 5  7.24   6.9

Kaz Ishii          23-17  4.07   8.5    13- 8  4.71   5.1

Hideo Nomo         29-17  2.90  10.1    14-12  4.25  10.1

Masato Yoshii      18-16  4.17   5.8     6-15  5.86   4.7

Daisuke Matsuzaka  33-15  3.72   8.6            ？


In every case, the third year was a pothole. Their ERAs soared and, in all
but one case, their strikeout rate dropped. Nomo did recover to post two good
seasons with the Dodgers later in his career, but otherwise he was mostly
ordinary after the initial burst.

The biggest concern for such a track record is the difference in how pitchers
are used in Japan and in the majors. Matsuzaka pitched every sixth or seventh
day in Japan in a shorter season, but his individual pitch counts wouldn't be
allowed in America. He threw, for instance, 250 pitches in a high school
game, 189 pitches on Opening Day 2003, 160 pitches in his second start of
2005 and 145 pitches in his penultimate start before signing with Boston.
Perhaps most ominously, Matsuzaka threw 588 innings as a pro in Japan as a
teenager.

As former Red Sox teammate Curt Schilling said back in 2007, "He is a big
league ace in the making. The question is, does he throw his last pitch at 31
or at 39?"

The Red Sox for now have no serious concerns about Matsuzaka, not with his
current shoulder fatigue and not long term. Said Epstein, "We think he'll be
fine after taking a break for a couple of weeks. He went through a similar
period last year."

The Red Sox, it should be noted, are considered to run industry
state-of-the-art maintenance and rehabilitation programs for pitchers.
Perhaps Matsuzaka, as Pedro Martinez did, will need these periodic down times
to manage his way through long seasons and the every-fifth-day routine. But
if Matsuzaka retains his strength and elite pitching through the next season
or two, he will be bucking the trend that concerned Boras upon Matsuzaka
signing with the Sox.



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◆ From: 118.160.67.110
推 AMDKX:野茂真厲害~
→ AMDKX:同樣是直球搭配指叉，不知道上原早一點來，直球還有145+的
→ AMDKX:得時候威力怎樣，成績會如何~~
推 Roshiel:野茂跟上原的控球等級完全不同啊
推 YioiY:野茂前兩年有夠殺的
推 Fukudome:野茂靠外星人指叉+尾勁十足的145直球殺翻MLB
→ Fukudome:上原的快速指叉應該沒野茂的大叉來的sharp ...
→ Westmoreland:Nomo 剛到美國應該有 95 mph嗎
推 saxer:記得應該92~93吧
推 abc12812:野茂只有前兩年猛，後來幾年就不如意了，或許是舊傷關係
→ abc12812:而且後來變超肥的，根本是右投版的David Wells
推 AGZ:樓上這樣說不完全對  至少2001~2003 野茂這三年也投得很不錯
→ AGZ:97,99,00算是表現平平 98,04,05,08就真的是非常不如意了
→ greengreen42:上原跟野茂是不同類型的指叉球投手~一個肥一個瘦!!!
推 jacobhsu:03年道奇16W6L 3.39ERA 和O.Perez 石井一久共投出45勝
推 jacobhsu:02年抱歉
推 ucccoffee:野茂在道奇都很殺  96年03年都有進入賽揚獎投票
推 AMDKX:六樓靠選球和偶然的長打博得板友的喜愛XDD
→ AMDKX:人都會老，即便最後幾年不如意，野茂還是我的最愛~~~
推 AGZ:樓樓上 根據 baseball-reference Nomo 95,96年進入過CYA投票
推 AGZ:03年沒有 你記錯了;但怪的是 02年Nomo怎麼會沒進入CYA投票呢?
→ AGZ:02年Nomo 16W6L 3.39ERA  卻沒在當年CYA票選拿到一張票
推 greengreen42:因為2002年是RJ  ERA 2.32 24-5  334K 260IP
→ greengreen42:那年只有腦袋秀斗才會投NOMO吧XD = =