Astros likely to regret Oswalt's 5-year deal

[Berkman (味全龍迷)]

Astros likely to regret Oswalt's 5-year deal
Story Tools:
  Print    Email    Blog This    Subscribe
Ken Rosenthal / FOXSports.com
Posted: 2 days ago



It's easy to understand why the Astros felt compelled to sign right-hander
Roy Oswalt to a five-year, $73 million extension. But chances are, it is a
move they will regret.

Good as Oswalt is, five-year deals for pitchers stink.

The Astros likely view the contract as a necessary evil — either they met
Oswalt's demands or risked losing him as a free agent after next season when
some other club surely would have met his price.

Oswalt, 29, is eight months younger than right-hander A.J. Burnet, a much
lesser pitcher who received a five-year, $55 million free-agent contract from
the Blue Jays last off-season.

What's more, Oswalt might be the Astros' only accomplished starting pitcher
next season if right-hander Roger Clemens and left-hander Andy Pettitte
retire or depart as free agents.

The moment a team parts with an Oswalt, it begins scrambling for a
replacement. And while young Astros pitchers such as Jason Hirsh, Fernando
Nieve and Troy Patton show promise, they'll face less pressure with Oswalt
signed long-term.

Here's the problem: Oswalt, 6 feet and 185 pounds, could be the next Tim
Hudson, another smallish right-handed power pitcher who hasn't been less
effective with the Braves than he was with the A's.

Oswalt shows no overt signs of wear-and-tear — he's headed for his third
straight season of 30-plus starts despite missing time earlier this season
with a back strain. He also has worked nearly 50 innings in the past two
post-seasons.

But, like Hudson, Oswalt exerts a significant amount of energy in his
delivery. He made three trips to the D.L. in 2003 due to a recurring groin
problem. And as he gets older, his chances of injury will increase.

Only a month ago, the Astros were ready to trade Oswalt, shortstop Adam
Everett and a third player to the Orioles for shortstop Miguel Tejada.

Why?

Because they feared giving Oswalt this type of contract. Tejada, 30, offered
more certainty — he's a durable everyday player who is signed for three more
years.

Very few pitchers prove worthy of a five-year investment — left-hander Randy
Johnson did with the Diamondbacks after signing a four-year deal with a club
option, and right-hander Mike Mussina has been consistently good if not
spectacular for the Yankees during his six-year, $88.5 million deal.

Mussina, 6-2 and 185 pounds, is somewhat similar to Oswalt, though even in
his prime, he was less reliant on power stuff.

David Cone, 6-1 and 190, also enjoyed a long career with a relatively small
build, but like Mussina, he developed into more of a craftsman than Oswalt is
right now.

Perhaps Oswalt will make that transition in the coming years; all great
pitchers reinvent themselves, producing different phases to their careers.

This much seems certain:

One way or another, Oswalt will be a different pitcher in five years.

Ken Rosenthal is FOXSports.com's senior baseball writer.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5918768

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) 
◆ From: 218.166.122.206
推 FreeFly:..是簽太長了 5年很久.. 確實風險超大
→ FreeFly:一年1.6m年年簽的  不至於搶不到吧 1.6m 太有誠意了 XDD
→ FreeFly:我看到這價碼的時候 第一時間就想到肥仔 @.@ 相對該多少啊
推 FreeFly:還好肥仔還要依段時間才要擔心 XDD
推 Herlin:Berkman 去年就續約了, 請見本版992
推 Ayukawayen:1.6m一點誠意都沒有吧 XD