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http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-29-124/Trade-Rumors-are-Fun-.html
Trade Rumors are Fun!
January 30, 2008 6:38 PM
So, thanks to ESPN's Chris Broussard on last night's Coast to Coast, the
Bergen Record, Yahoo, and other outlets, we have a massive trade to discuss.
After spending some time with ESPN's salary cap people I can tell you that
none of the published versions make perfect salary cap sense as is. But the
general gist of all of these rumors is:
Jason Kidd and minimum contract Nets to Dallas.
Devin Harris and maybe something else to Portland.
Travis Outlaw, Jarrett Jack, Channing Frye, and possibly a pick and/or
another player to New Jersey.
Devean George, Jerry Stackhouse, and some low salary Dallas players, and
maybe a pick, to New Jersey.
I heard some of this talk this morning and said no way, doesn't sound
realistic at all.
This is a massive gamble for Dallas, which has one of the best teams in the
NBA right now. They'd be entering "win now or else" mode as Kidd aged into
mediocrity.
For New Jersey, there would be some salaries to pay, and some roster spots to
find, but a whole team's worth of talent to play around with while you try to
figure out how to get someone else to pay Vince Carter so you can lure a
big-time free agent.
But for Portland? For the team I follow most closely?
In the NBA, there are only a handful of young, affordable players. Of those,
there are only a few who have shown signs they can really play. Of those,
only a few are known to be solid citizens in the locker room and off the
court. Of those, even fewer have been part of winning teams.
People almost never give those guys up. To give up three or four of them in
one trade?
What's more Travis Outlaw, lately, has been something of a marvel. He has
been almost perfect at both ends of the floor in crunch time. He has a
reasonable contract. He is young. His vastly improved shot shows he works.
And he plays one of the few positions on the floor that lets him contribute
alongside Portland's keepers Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Greg Oden.
If you give up a player like that, at this early stage of his career, you'd
think it would be for something really special.
Devin Harris is a nice player, don't get me wrong. But he doesn't knock my
socks off like that.
So that was my first thought. This is just crazy talk. Happens all the time
in the NBA.
Also, there are some problems with this trade. Play with the trade machine
all you want -- it's not working, as described, under the rules. In addition
to the basic problem of salaries not matching, Devin Harris has a "poison
pill" contract, which means his salary in any trade is small to the outgoing
team, but much bigger -- an average of his entire extension, to the incoming
team. Devean George has one-year Bird rights, which means (now we're deep in
the backwaters of the Collective Bargaining Agreement) that he could decline
to be part of any trade, and the teams would have to honor that.
But as the day has progressed, evidence has been popping up that something
like this might really have legs.
So I spent a chunk of the afternoon researching Devin Harris, trying to get
in the mind of Portland's GM, Kevin Pritchard.
Pritchard, bless him, is not like most fans.
For one thing, he has his own convictions about players, and that is king.
He's not like us people, who think: well, gee, that Sergio Rodriguez sure had
a nice game against Atlanta! He has his own metrics, and he believes in them
to his core, and will make decisions accordingly.
For another thing, he knows the current Blazers better than almost anyone. If
there is some flaw that would prevent this or that player from thriving
long-term in Portland, Pritchard would know. For instance, when Oden comes
back next year and minutes and shots are harder to come by, who is going to
become a problem and who is not? Or when people start getting big contracts
the year after that, who might become the jealous pouter? These are the
things he has to worry about.
As satisfied as Portland fans might be with making the playoffs and seeing
some fun basketball, Pritchard has to be all about winning a championship.
Not just making it to the conference finals, but winning the whole darn
thing. That takes a bunch of players peaking together in a special way, not
just some guys who play well once in a while.
Portland clearly has to move some pieces -- I recently put them on a list of
teams most likely to trade before the deadline. They are on a course to have
22 players soon, and of course, you are only allowed to carry 15.
Also, the point guard position is a question mark. Steve Blake has been
something of a rock -- he's an excellent shooter, and this team can get
shooters open -- but backups Jarrett Jack and Sergio Rodriguez are both
sometimes on and sometimes off.
Synergy Sports has very detailed statistics about how different players shoot
from all over the floor. Harris is rated as a "very good" catch-and-shoot
scorer. He also gets a lot of points at the rim. His mid-range game is more
average. He is among the league's best at catching the ball while diving to
the rim, catching on the run, and scoring.
So, in essence, it sounds like he'd be a good guy to have catching passes
from a double-teamed Brandon Roy.
He's long for his position, and super fast with or without the ball, with a
little hint of Tony Parker in how he can create his own fast break by zipping
through a crowd and finishing at the rim. He also has a reputation as a good
defender, and has played in the NBA Finals. In terms of straight PER, Devin
Harris is currently the ninth best point guard in the NBA. 82 Games has a
bunch of statistics that show the Mavericks are far better when Harris is on
the floor vs. when he is not.
Not a lot of 24-year-old point guards can say all that.
If you're Kevin Pritchard, getting a little tired of question marks at the
point guard position as you envision your title-winning team, I could see
getting a little excited about Devin Harris.
Pritchard is from the school that says you identify the players you want, and
then you go get them.
Maybe, just maybe, Devin Harris is someone who lights up the spreadsheets
that the Blazer scouting staff looks at. Maybe, in some fashion, he shows up
as the perfect guy to play alongside the likes of Brandon Roy in the
backcourt.
And maybe, just maybe that's worth shipping out a ton of young talent.
But if these rumors are real, and some version of this does take place --
Pritchard and his staff had better be right. Those young players Portland
will give up will be around for a long time with the potential to make
Portland look bad, and Harris has a contract that lasts into 2013.
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