2009-10 Recap
Between an injury-racked season and a rocky changing of the guard in the
front office, the Blazers' hitherto runaway success of a rebuilding project
encountered its first stumbles in 2009-10.
Yet the big picture is unchanged: Portland remains one of the deepest, most
talented teams in basketball. If anything, the events of last season and this
offseason -- acquiringMarcus Camby, Wesley Matthews and Luke Babbitt, and
winning 50 games despite myriad injuries -- only cemented that impression.
Similarly, while owner Paul Allen and his henchmen (the invisible,
Seattle-based "Vulcans" that help run his businesses) botched handling months
of rumors and the eventual draft-day dismissal of general manager Kevin
Pritchard, the organization as a whole still seems to be in decent shape.
Pritchard was wildly successful right up until the end, making his dismissal
all the more unusual. He nabbed Camby for two expiring contracts at the trade
deadline and then extended him before he could get into an overheated
free-agent market. Then, Pritchard ran Portland's draft as a dead man walking
but still executed a solid trade for Babbitt. As a result, most of the hard
work has already been done. Portland's roster is loaded; it just needs a few
tweaks around the edges to be a perennial contender.
The Blazers were so deep, in fact, that they were able to win 50 games
despite a comedy of injuries that would have crushed most other teams. There
was a nice symmetry to it: Portland's season kicked off with a terrible
season-ending knee injury to Greg Oden and concluded with knee surgery for
Brandon Roy. In between, the Blazers endured a laundry list of maladies that
came right out of a country music song, including a torn Achilles that
sidelined the head coach and a severe knee injury suffered by Joel Przybilla
while showering.
On the court, the Blazers continued to be one of the most distinctive teams
in basketball under Nate McMillan. The Blazers played a slow, methodical
style, crashed the offensive boards and rarely turned the ball over. McMillan
maintained that style through countless personnel changes last season,
resulting in the league's fewest fast-break points at just 9.5 per game.
Portland played the league's slowest pace at 90.2 possessions per game (see
chart), and employed a snail-like approach to defense as well -- the Blazers
finished last in steals per minute (see chart).
The slow pace masked the fact that Portland was, at its core, a volume-driven
offense. The Blazers counted on being able to take more shots than opponents
because they rarely turn it over with their slow style, and because they're
good offensive rebounders. True to form, Portland ranked third in shot
attempts per possessions (adjusting for free throw attempts), allowing the
Blazers to post the league's eighth-best offense despite average shooting
numbers.
Defensively, the Blazers had few distinctive traits other than the lack of
steals, but that may be because they shuttled so many players in and out.
When Camby and Nic Batum were in the lineup at the end of the season,
Portland's defense was quite robust, and one imagines it will be even better
if and when Oden rejoins the frontcourt mix.
In fact, three of the league's top five rebounders by rebound rate were
Blazers -- Oden, Camby and Przybilla. Theoretically this should allow
Portland to dominate the glass. In reality only one of the three is likely to
be healthy on any given day, so Portland's rebound advantage likely won't be
so steep.
The one disadvantage of McMillan's system, however, is that it appears
awfully predictable in the playoffs. At times the Blazers seem to have only
two plays -- a high pick-and-roll for Roy and a post-up for Aldridge -- while
the secondary players wait their turn for a catch-and-shoot or an offensive
rebound.
While it's an effective way to get off a bunch of shots in the regular
season, prepared opponents seem to bottle it up fairly easily come spring.
The Blazers' offense has underachieved in the postseason each of the past two
seasons, and while last season can be partly excused given Roy's knee injury,
it's telling that the most similar club stylistically (Atlanta) has had
similar trouble in the postseason.
The Blazers should have a lot more weapons at their disposal now, especially
if Oden is healthy. While varying the offense may take their performance down
a notch in the regular season, it could boost their performance in the
playoffs.
Of course, the other way to boost their performance is to secure better
players. On that front, the Blazers made a solid choice in hiring Oklahoma
City assistant GM Rich Cho to succeed Pritchard. Cho is a cap expert whose
main task will be converting Portland's two large expiring contracts (Andre
Miller and Joel Przybilla) into a point guard who can shoot. His addition
provides one more reason to think last season's stumbles won't derail the
Blazers for long.
HOLLINGER'S '09-10 STATS
W-L: 50-32 (Pythagorean W-L: 52-30)
Offensive Efficiency: 108.0 (7th)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.0 (13th)
Pace Factor: 90.2 (30th)
Highest PER: Brandon Roy (21.36)
Offseason Moves
Portland had no general manager through most of free agency after the
draft-day divorce with Pritchard. Instead team president Larry Miller and
scouting chiefs Michael Born and Chad Buchanan teamed up to form an interim
administration that executed one major decision, an offer sheet to Utah's
Wesley Matthews, before Cho took over.
Traded Martell Webster for No. 16 pick and Ryan Gomes; drafted Luke Babbitt;
waived Gomes. Pritchard's final salvo as general manager was dumping
Webster's contract to help lower the Blazers' luxury tax burden (Portland may
end up in the tax, depending on how it utilize its expiring contracts) while
lifting the talented Babbitt from the Timberwolves' paws. Babbitt is exactly
the kind of floor-spacing 4 that McMillan loves to use late in games, so
he'll have a chance to contribute immediately.
Drafted Elliot Williams and Armon Johnson. Williams was a late first-round
pick who offers some potential as a scorer, while Johnson landed in Portland
after the Blazers paid Golden State $2 million to move up 10 spots from No.
44 to No. 34. That seems awfully rich to stay in the second round, but
Allen's deep pockets have always been a competitive advantage for Portland on
draft day. Neither rookie is likely to play much given Portland's depth,
although a trade of disgruntled guard Rudy Fernandez could provide a narrow
opening for Williams.
Signed Wes Matthews for five years, $33 million. No, the Blazers don't do
this every year just to mess with Utah. Matthews fits an essential need as a
wing defender who can space the floor with his 3-point shooting, something
the Blazers need if their defensive skill can catch up to their offense. It's
a bit rich for a role player, but given the need this move filled and
Matthews' youth, it's tough to criticize too harshly.
Biggest Strength: Size
There's a good reason for the Blazers to play as slowly as they do -- they're
huge. I don't just mean tall, either; Portland brings the beef. The Blazers
have quietly become one of the biggest teams in basketball, and while a
likely trade or two may diminish their size a bit during the season, they
still can match up sizewise with anybody.
At center, the Blazers have at their disposal three of the best shot-blockers
and rebounders in the game in Oden, Przybilla and Camby. Oden in particular
is a massive force who can dominate games physically at both ends, although
his health is an obvious question. Przybilla faces a tough road back after
last season's multiple knee injuries and may not be ready for opening day,
but if he can retain his mobility, he'll be another force in the middle.
The real gem, however, was acquiring Camby late last season. While he's not
exactly Hulk Hogan, he can dominate defensively from two positions and has a
huge size advantage at the power forward spot in particular.
Next to those three, there's more size. Aldridge is one of the league's
biggest power forwards at 6-11; while occasionally accused of being soft, he
has the length to be a major problem for opposing defenses trying to check
him in the post.
On the wing, Batum is a long-framed 6-8 and Babbit is 6-9, while shooting
guards Roy and Matthews are two of the league's strongest players at their
positions. The only lightweight in the bunch is Fernandez, who may not be
around for long.
Even at point guard, the Blazers pack a punch. Andre Miller is one of the
best post-up point guards in basketball and can overwhelm smaller guards with
his physical play.
Biggest Weakness: Floor spacing
I don't mean shooting necessarily, because the Blazers have some guys who can
shoot. Rather, Portland has a more complex problem -- the Blazers nearly
always play with two guys who can't shoot, and that crowds the floor for
everybody else.
This was most notable at the beginning of last season when Roy bristled at
having Oden clogging things in the post and lobbied for Steve Blake to start
ahead of Miller. Injuries eliminated Roy's dilemma as Portland played with
better spot-up shooters in place of Oden and Przybilla, but we're likely to
face a redux this winter.
The starting lineup will feature Oden and Miller, neither of whom can shoot.
When they check out, we'll have Przybilla or Camby up front … or possibly
Oden and Camby together. That's two nonshooters in the frontcourt. And when
Miller checks out, another iffy shooter,Jerryd Bayless, checks in.
So at any given time, Roy will be running his usual high pick-and-roll with
the opponent basically disregarding two of his four passing options.
Similarly, Aldridge's post-ups are likely to be more constrained by the
multiple double-teaming options opponents have against him.
If you're wondering why Blazers fans clamor to trade Miller and his expiring
contract, this is why. The Miller-Roy backcourt has been an uneasy truce;
putting a more natural floor spacer along Roy would go a long way toward
making an already good offense a championship-caliber operation.
Outlook
Everybody is sleeping on Portland. For instance, Oklahoma City is the hot
team that most pundits project as No. 2 in the West, but compare the two
teams: Both won 50 games last season. Both are young, deep and talented. The
difference is that last season the Thunder had no significant injuries. None.
Meanwhile, the Blazers had everybody get hurt, including the coach; just for
good measure, Przybilla blew out his knee twice.
Presuming the injury luck is a bit more evenly distributed this season, one
has to like the Blazers' chances of moving back to the top of the Western
contender pack. In fact, if Oden stays healthy, they have a chance to outlast
the Lakers for the top playoff seed in the conference. I still don't think
they can beat L.A. in the playoffs, because the current Blazers roster is
much better constructed for the regular season than the postseason, but
Portland appears to be the biggest obstacle to a fourth straight Lakers
conference title.
Of course, it's foolish to just blithely pencil in Oden for 2,500 minutes. I
estimated only 1,200 minutes for Oden, or about 24 a game for 50 games. I was
similarly conservative with two other players (Roy and Batum) who missed a
lot of time last season. Additionally, I took a little steam out of a very
enthusiastic projection for Batum since it was based on a fairly small
minutes sample.
Even after accounting for all that, the Blazers rated as the league's
fourth-best team, and they can still get better. Portland has $15 million in
expiring contracts, two first-round picks, and a disgruntled but tempting
wing in Rudy Fernandez. If Cho can parlay some or all of those assets into,
say, Chauncey Billups, the Blazers can hang with anybody.
Failing that, the Blazers will still be very good. Even if Oden can't finish
the season, Portland has three rising stars in Roy, Aldridge and the rapidly
improving Batum. Plus, as last season proved, the Blazers' depth allows them
to survive virtually anything the regular season throws at them. This time I
suspect they'll be thrown a few more hanging sliders, and finally win a
playoff series or two.
Prediction: 55-27, 1st in Northwest Division, 2nd in Western Conference
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/trainingcamp10/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=TrailBlazersForecast1011
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數據大師 Hollinger 的拓荒者開季分析 他還蠻看好我們的
長文有興趣請自便 原文在ESPN insider
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