Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

[abc12812 (Sudba tseloveka)]

http://tinyurl.com/3lbanl


Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Blue Jays.  Here's the roster:

C - Rod Barajas - $2.5MM (club option)
C - Curtis Thigpen - $400K
1B - Lyle Overbay - $7MM
2B - Aaron Hill - $2.59MM (cleared for physical activity in October?)
SS - Marco Scutaro - $1.1MM
3B - Scott Rolen - $11MM
IF - John McDonald - $1.9MM
IF - Jose Bautista - $1.8MM+
IF/OF - Joe Inglett - $400K
LF - Travis Snider - $400K
CF - Vernon Wells - $10MM
RF - Alex Rios - $5.9MM
DH - Adam Lind - $400K

SP - Roy Halladay - $14.25MM
SP - Jesse Litsch - $400K+
SP - Dustin McGowan - $404K (shoulder surgery July '08)
SP - Casey Janssen - $404K (shoulder surgery March '08)
SP - David Purcey - $400K

RP - B.J. Ryan - $10MM
RP/SP - Scott Downs - $3.75MM
RP - Jesse Carlson - $400K
RP - Jason Frasor - $1.125MM+
RP - Brian Tallet - $640K+
RP - Jeremy Accardo - $400K
RP - Brandon League - $400K+


Other bullpen candidates: Brian Wolfe - $400K, Shawn Camp - $412K+

Other rotation candidates: Scott Downs, Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil

I have the Jays with about $80MM committed plus arbitration raises to Bautista,
Litsch, Frasor, and League.  After that they'll still be under $85MM.  The Blue
Jays entered '08 with a $98MM payroll, so they should have over $13MM+ to spend
.  '09 payroll will apparently be "appropriate, but not significantly higher"
than in '08.

Let's start with the rotation.  Looks shaky, which shows you how quickly
starting pitching depth can evaporate.  The Jays will need one of McGowan
and Janssen to return successfully from shoulder surgery, or for Downs to
convert successfully back to starting.  They'd look a lot better with another
veteran starter.  But do the math - if payroll stays the same the Jays will
barely be able to squeeze in A.J. Burnett at $15-18MM.  I don't see Burnett
remaining with the Jays.

The Blue Jays had a below-average offense in 2008.  Maybe full seasons of Wells
, Lind, Hill, and Snider can remedy that.  The clearest position to upgrade
via free agency is shortstop, where Rafael Furcal is tempting.  A DH type like
Milton Bradley, Jason Giambi, or Raul Ibanez could work if the Jays don't mind
sitting Snider or Lind.

Toronto seems to have a surplus in the bullpen, though not as much if Downs
goes to the rotation.  If he stays in the pen, J.P. Ricciardi should
aggressively shop Ryan.  Ryan at two years, $20MM looks decent in a weak
closer market.  That'd free up $10MM in '09 payroll without weakening the
team much.  With that the Jays might be able to afford Furcal plus a free
agent starter.  Even then they'd need a lot of things to go right to snag a
playoff spot in 2009.


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◆ From: 140.112.5.3
推 IHSV:我覺得還是從農場養球員比較划算。
推 l81311i:不想要Furcal
推 RoyHalladay:其實打線不受傷的話. 應該還是可以看阿.
推 nicksire:我覺得我們需要的是大砲  不是先鋒  雖然Furcal很強
→ nicksire:可是畢竟不是最需要的
推 mrroot:我對打線的補強感到悲觀...真的像Manny之類巨砲不但付不起
→ mrroot:簽太多年又把payroll綁死...那以後除非payroll增加 可以用
→ mrroot:金太少 那後幾年都不用補了吧...
→ mrroot:上面提到的Bradley這些"假巨砲" 突然變爛那也不意外...
→ mrroot:反正就是無法確定你買到什麼... 但如果決定要賭的話最好是
→ mrroot:短約就好... 如果能基本薪資低加incentive那最好...
→ mrroot:但是市場上應該沒有那麼好康的事... 所以大概就是死路一條
推 mrroot:我希望不管怎樣 don't give in to BIG and LONG contracts
→ mrroot:大不了不補  繼續賭賭看現有的打線會不會大爆炸...
→ mrroot:這個lineup表現得實在跟可以做到的差太多了...如果我們相信
→ mrroot:司馬季主的話...那麼期待一下物極必反應該也不太過份
→ mrroot:其實SP的補強也一樣  亂簽長約來不如不簽...
→ mrroot:JP的眼光那麼差 乾脆不要有什麼動作 等著被火就好了...XD
→ mrroot:只能期待: 整隊大爆發,老闆增資 不然就是農場的玻璃變鑽石
→ ACEP:同樣的打線成績要比今年差很難啦...除非整隊中邪
→ i895:怎麼沒有 Macum??
推 IHSV:對於補強打線，我也不看好；不是由於JP，而是市場的FA大物我
→ IHSV:們買不起。至於數年前的簽AJ,BJ；拿到Glaus和Overbay不知道算
→ IHSV:是誰的功勞？
推 IHSV:明年的打擊成績應該會回勇；Wells，Rios和Overbay有20HR的打
→ IHSV:績能力，加上Hill和Lind的年輕棒子，Rolen和Barajas的約10HR
→ IHSV:輔佐，打擊成績可以期待。反而是要留意在傷患出現的時候的安
→ IHSV:排：今年有Lind和Inglett的冒起，分擔了一些本來是大痛和Reed
→ IHSV:Johnson的貢獻；如果明年有類似的問題時候誰來頂替。
→ IHSV:Lind和Purcey也是Wells和Litsch休整時冒起的。明年我們農場
→ IHSV:能不能提供後備打擊力。
→ IHSV:但現在Gaston，JP和另外九名球員（BJ,Halladay,Wells,Overbay
→ IHSV:等）的約在2010賽季后到期，看來是臨尾大推的成分居多。
推 IHSV:更正：不包括wells（版主：為何不能修改留言？）
→ ACEP:我不知道耶，我沒改過啥設定
→ ACEP:修改留言應該是發文者本人可以修改
→ ACEP:推文的話聽說是不能修
推 l81311i:最近我在幻想JJ Hardy跟Saltalamacchia 剛好酒人跟遊騎兵
→ l81311i:都缺投手 不知道有沒有機會換到.
推 RoyHalladay:問題是我們也缺投手吧...一堆傷兵... ~"~
→ ACEP:Salty來要放哪？ 捕手？ 一壘？ DH?
→ ACEP:倒是哈滴可以拼拼看
推 soaringfish:要換Salty應該就順手把Barajas丟出去吧  有穩定的C也
→ soaringfish:是好事  不過Hardy應該還是比較前面的選擇
→ soaringfish:我們農場可能沒深到兩個人都撈得下來
推 gbpacker:簽下AJ是Arnsberg的功勞  簽下哈迪那今年打出的Inglett
→ gbpacker:不就沒有任何意義了?
推 l81311i:怎會沒意義?
→ l81311i:Hill短期不會回來 他可以守2B
推 IHSV:說真的，我想Hill守遊擊
→ ACEP:Hill還不知道要多久才能回到場上，即使回到場上，也不知道多
→ ACEP:久才能恢復應有的身手
→ abc12812:Hill怎麼了阿?
推 mrroot:Salty和Hardy都還年輕 可以被球團控制很久 要換的話對方也
→ mrroot:會要同樣年輕的投手 而且是有潛力沒開發出的...
→ mrroot:但我們哪來這樣的可以換?
推 mrroot:我覺得就跟這篇說的一樣  看來BJ我們手上少有的籌碼...
→ mrroot:而且牛棚應該比較健全 所以真有好的deal那交易吧
→ mrroot:不過我不是說要拿BJ換Salty或Hardy  是一般而言
推 soaringfish:我們也有一票年輕的好投手吧  並且BJ跳了就沒法用來換
→ soaringfish:不對  夜深了  我把BJ看成AJ......= =