[情報] Fangraphs Braves Top 10 prospects

[Roawen (清不掉的待辦事項...)]

來源：http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/atlanta-braves-top-10-prospects

General Manager: Frank Wren
Farm Director: Kurt Kemp
Scouting Director: Tony DeMacio

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)
The Braves organization is not churning out the pitching prospects like it
once did, but there are some interesting power arms in the system. The club
has had some problems with injuries amongst its young pitchers, especially
recent draft picks, which is a little worrisome. The two bats at the top of
the Top 10 list have a chance to be impact bats – especially Heyward. He
could be an absolute monster at the plate. Many of the prospects on the Top
10 list are still a few years away.


1. Jason Heyward, OF, Triple-A
DOB: August 1989 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 1st round – Georgia HS
MLB ETA: Early-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

I loved Heyward on draft day in ‘07 and I like him even more now. Despite
being drafted out of high school, he’s flown through the system and reached
triple-A in ‘09 at the age of 20. He began the year in high-A where he hit
.296/.369/.519 in 189 at-bats. Heyward then moved up to double-A and produced
a line of .352/.446/.611 in 162 at-bats. His season ended with three games in
triple-A. The outfielder showed outstanding power with an ISO rate of .222 in
high-A and .259 in double-A. He also displayed the potential to provide five
to 10 steals and Heyward had a double-digit walk rate, which topped out at
14.7% in double-A. His BB/K rate of 1.47 at that same level was outstanding.
There are few holes in his game. Heyward’s durability is currently surrounded
by question marks after be was dogged by minor injuries during the season and
in the Arizona Fall League.


2. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Double-A
DOB: September 1989 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2007 2nd round – California HS
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Freeman’s season began very well in high-A when he .302/.394/.447 in 255
at-bats. The first baseman found the going much tougher in double-A and he
hit just .248/.308/.342 in 149 at-bats. His power also dropped with his ISO
rate going from .145 to .094. Even at its peak last season, Freeman’s power
output was below-average for an impact first baseman, but he projects as a
20-homer guy — not a true slugger. One reason for his poor numbers in double-A
was the drop in BABIP, from .341 to .273; he was also playing with a hand
injury. On the positive side, his strikeout rate actually dropped from 16.1 to
12.8%, so he wasn’t completely over-matched. He’ll head back to double-A in
2010.


3. Julio Teheran, RHP, Low-A
DOB: January 1991 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Colombia)
MLB ETA: Early-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

There is no question that Teheran has the stuff to be a dominating starter in
the Majors, but his durability is in question, as he’s been slowed by shoulder
soreness. He made just 14 starts in ‘09 and he split the year between rookie
ball and low-A ball. At the senior level, Teheran posted a 3.68 FIP and allowed
42 hits in 37.2 innings. He showed good control with a walk rate of 2.63 BB/9
but his strikeout rate was just 6.69 K/9. The right-hander has a good change-up
but his breaking ball still needs work, which is one of the reasons for the low
strikeout rate. Teheran is loaded with potential but he’s just 18 years old
and will likely develop slowly, especially with the organization being cautious
with his health.


4. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Short-Season
DOB: November 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-95 mph, plus curveball, change-up

Vizcaino had a very impressive season as a teenager in short-season ball. He
missed a lot of bats with a strikeout rate of 11.06 K/9 and he kept the walks
in check at 3.19 BB/9. In 42.1 innings, Vizcaino allowed just 34 hits and two
homers (0.43 HR/9). His ground-ball rate improved 10% over his debut season in
08 to 48%, which is a positive trend that will hopefully continue in 2010. If
he reaches his potential, Vizcaino has the stuff to be a front-line starter…
but he’s also a ways away from the Majors. He was the key player acquired
recently in the Javier Vazquez deal with the Yankees.


5. Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Triple-A
DOB: May 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Wallace State CC
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 91-95 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Kimbrel has flown through the system since signing in ‘08. The right-handed
reliever has posted outstanding strikeout rates throughout the minors,including
17.10 K/9 in 20.0 low-A innings and 15.38 K/9 in 26.1 high-A innings, both in
2009. His control, though, has been more spotty. Kimbrel posted a walk rate of
2.70 BB/9 in low-A but it rose to 9.57 BB/9 in high-A. He also pitched 11.2
innings in double-A and walked seven batters with 17 Ks. Overall on the year,
he allowed 30 hits, 45 walks and struck out 103 batters in 60.0 innings.Kimbrel
needs to sharpen his control before reaching the Majors, but he has closer
potential with a blazing fastball and good slider.


6. Randall Delgado, RHP, Low-A
DOB: February 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Panama)
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 91-95 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

Another good arm, Delgado proved his durability in 09 by making 25 starts in
low-A ball. He allowed 123 hits in 124.0 innings and posted a FIP of 3.20. He
also showed a consistent ability to miss bats with his good fastball and he
posted a strikeout rate of 10.23 K/9. His control was OK, especially given his
experience level, and he had a walk rate of 3.56 BB/9. Delgado also did a nice
job of keeping the ball in the park (0.65 HR/9). He was particularly effective
against left-handed hitters, who managed to produce an average of just .225
against him. He also posted a strikeout rate of 10.92 K/9 against them,compared
to 8.87 K/9 against right-handed batters.


7. Ezekiel Spruill, RHP, Low-A
DOB: September 1989 Bats: B Throws: R
Signed: 2008 2nd round – Georgia HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Spruill had a nice first season out of rookie ball with a 3.37 FIP in low-A.
He was a little too hittable, though, and he allowed 120 hits in 116.0 innings.
Spruill is always around the strike zone, though, and the hitters in the low
minors tend to be free swingers. He showed outstanding control with a walk rate
of 1.86 BB/9. The right-hander backed that up with a strikeout rate of 7.37 K/9
.He also posted an outstanding ground-ball rate just shy of 57% on the year.
Spruill's stuff is more solid than electric and he projects to be a No.3
starter in the Majors.


8. Christian Bethancourt, C, Rookie
DOB: September 1991 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 non-drafted international free agent (Panama)
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Bethancourt had a solid debut season in the low minors. In rookie ball, he hit
.275/.340/.443 in 166 at-bats. The right-handed hitter did struggle against
left-handed pitchers and he posted an OPS of just .577. For a teenager,
Bethancourt showed a good eye at the plate and intriguing raw power. He's known
as a good leader behind the plate and he also has promising arm strength, as he
threw out 30% of base stealers in 09. He’ll likely move up to low-A in 2010,
where he’ll be one of the youngest players in the league.


9. Cody Johnson, OF, High-A
DOB: August 1988 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2006 1st round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

People seem to either love or hate Johnson as a prospect. Just 21, he slugged
32 homers last year, and has gone deep 58 times over the last two seasons.
However, his strikeout rate actually rose from his 37.8% mark in ‘08 to 40.6%
in ‘09 as he moved up from low-A to high-A. On the plus side, his walk rate
also rose, from 7.9% to 13.2%. Johnson will need to tone down his swing if he's
going to succeed even in double-A, but he’d still have above-average power if
he swung with one hand tied behind his back. With a .242 batting average in
high-A, he’ll likely struggle to hit even .220 in 2010 if he doesn’t make
some adjustments. At this point, he’s a long shot to be an impact player in
the Majors but he’s fun to follow.


10. Adam Milligan, OF, High-A
DOB: March 1988 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 6th round – Walters State CC
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Milligan did not get into game action after signing in ‘08 so ‘09 represented
his debut season. The outfielder had an outstanding season while spending the
majority of the season in low-A where he hit .345/.393/.589 in 197 at-bats. He
also posted an ISO of .244 but he was raw on the base paths and got caught five
times in nine attempts. The left-handed hitter did OK against southpaws, but he
still posted much better numbers against right-handers (.870 vs 1.013 OPS on
the year). His walk rate was low at 5.7% but his strikeout rate was OK at 21.8%
given his power output. Milligan received a taste of High-A ball and he should
return there in 2010. With just 256 pro at-bats, we still don’t no exactly
what this intriguing prospect has to offer.


--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 114.24.2.175
※ 編輯: Roawen          來自: 114.24.2.175         (01/08 13:26)
→ Roawen:結果竟然沒有Mike Minor.....
推 synchron:因為..2009 Draft Picks Not Included
推 synchron:不過Cody的Power有沒有這麼誇張阿..原文寫說只用一隻手
→ synchron:揮棒,另一隻綁在背後..他都有超過平均的Power
→ Roawen:眼殘..XD 貼文還沒看到第一句..
推 bounds:10個有5個是投手
推 synchron:10個只有三個已經到達2A+...變數很大的農場
推 Rodriguez:農場在鐵爺案發生後.就.....
推 ddmal:                               條子農場成為TOP1
推 RubenGotay:誰都想不到Feliz 可以長到那麼好
推 ashidaka:不單是Feliz而已,那個包裹裡有3個high ceiling prospect
→ ashidaka:加上一個near ready的LHP,在沒有啥競爭對手下拿出來換幾
→ ashidaka:乎不會續約只能用1年多的鐵爺跟一個打工仔RP,這對近幾年
→ ashidaka:預算很吃緊的勇士根本就是輸面居多的大賭博,最後我們真的
→ ashidaka:也輸光光了
推 simonown:當初覺得最傷的是Salty 結果現在看來Feliz跟Andrus更傷..
推 OalexO:反正c跟ss目前都很不錯 我覺得損失還可以接受 至少有過鐵爺
推 Gerrard1004:結果最後鐵爺只換了一個科取曼~~~~~~~~
推 ddmal:一排新秀 =>鐵爺 =>烤雞 =>臘肉 =>空氣  = =
→ ddmal:不過鐵爺和回鍋的臘肉是真的狠猛
推 darkerson:慘.........
推 silentk:預算吃緊還跟一個老人簽4yrs/60M結果被套牢，而且還是最貴
→ silentk:如果沒有一批質量好得新秀上來，永遠沒有多的錢簽大咖補強
推 synchron:跟Lowe簽約是沒有錯的..當初的狀況我們五個SP只有一個JJJ
→ synchron:可信賴，Hudson，川上，Hanson的好都是在當時不可預期的
→ synchron:只是Lowe後來濫掉也是在當時不可預期的....
推 bounds:簽Lowe這決定沒錯，只是簽貴了點
推 a127n:但Lowe如預期的完成他工作馬的工作 也給了不錯的局數
推 synchron:哈..簽Lowe是希望他丟的像第一場對PHI那樣..15M簽工作馬
→ synchron:也太貴了一點, 簽他真的是要他來當我們的Ace的
推 simonown:只能期待Lowe觸底反彈了...(順便期待Vazq高點反轉..)
推 vf3:Lowe觸底反彈是看彈多高  老大跟格老子明年能恢復最重要
推 Gerrard1004:我比較推樓上XD老大阿老大~~~~~~~~
推 acmonkey:要不是去年打線很有力 JJJ Vaz 川上 數據都會非常好看