Re: [Fan Graphs] Wang Presents Risks Beyond Injury

[kkk3kman (recover)]

小弟來獻醜翻譯一下

※ 引述《yyhong68 (come every now and then)》之銘言：
: 這篇是加盟國民隊記者會前的文章
: Chien-Ming Wang Presents Risks Beyond Injury
關於王建民傷後復出的風險
: by Joe Pawlikowski - February 16, 2010
: For two years, Chien-Ming Wang looked like a top of the rotation starter.
: He didn’t blow away hitters, but instead fed them sinker after sinker,
: forcing them to hit the ball on the ground. Keeping the ball out of the air
: meant keeping the ball in the park, leaving Wang with the best HR/9 rate in
: the AL for both 2006 and 2007. This, combined with a low walk rate, kept his
: FIP under 4.00, despite the poor strikeout rate.
那兩年，小王就是個王牌先發，他不會動不動把人三振，
但總是能不斷用伸卡球讓打者把球往地上打
不讓球飛高也代表能把球留在場上, 這也讓小王成為06和07年美聯最難全壘打王
加上低保送率，讓小王的FIP低於4.00, 儘管他還是不習慣動不動把人三振

: Wang then opened the 2008 season in grand fashion, allowing just 19 runs,
: including one home run, and walking 19 in 59 innings. Making matters worse
: for opposing batters, he also started striking out more hitters, 38 in those
: 59 innings. It appeared he was taking another step forward. But then
: something changed.
小王08年又展現出勢如破竹的開季姿態
在59局的投球裡只被打一支全壘打, 保送19個, 僅僅掉了19分的優異表現
而且他也解開封印－開始三振打者
在59局的投球裡三振了38個打者
這些數據都顯示了小王變成了turbo版小王,
然而好景不常.......

: On May 18 Wang gave up seven runs in seven innings to the Mets. He followed
: that by allowing five or more runs in his next three appearances. Those
: unconvinced that Wang’s true ability matched his early season performance
: might have called it a statistical correction, but there seemed to be more
: at play. In 2006 and 2007, and even earlier in 2008, Wang released his
: pitches from a three-quarters arm slot. Beginning with his May 18 start,
: that release point move upward, as shown in the following three graphs.
5月18日，小王面對大都會的那場比賽，七局狂掉七分
接著的三場比賽，他每場都掉了五分以上
這很難說服大眾說之前的好表現是小王真正的實力，不是賽到的
讓我們來深入探討一下
在小王全盛時期，他的放球點大概是在3/4的位置
但自從518慘案之後
你可以發現他的放球點變高了，請看下面三張專業分析圖
http://tinyurl.com/yaleyvd
http://tinyurl.com/yaff3gv
http://tinyurl.com/y86ktrx

: Those graphs, as you can see, also contain 2009 data, which we’ll get to
: in a moment. The higher arm angle didn’t seem to work for Wang, though we
: didn’t get a large enough sample to make any real determination. On June 15,
: during an interleague game in Houston, Wang fractured his lisfranc, ending
: his season.
即使我們數據母體數不足，所以討論不出什麼偉大結論
但你還是可以看到這些數據都顯示出高放球點對小王來說是行不通的
六月十五日台灣球迷國殤日
在面對太空人的那場比賽
小王受傷, 結束了他2008的球季

: Wang appeared ready to return in 2009, and looked fine in spring training.
: His first three starts, however, went as poorly as possible, as he allowed
: 23 runs over just 6 IP. The Yankees placed him on the disabled list with
: what they termed “hip weakness,” but the move was really to buy them time
: to figure out what was wrong. He returned on May 22, but continued to
: struggle. His season eventually ended on the Fourth of July, as he dueled
: with Roy Halladay in the Bronx. Later that month we learned he would need
: surgery to repair a torn ligament in his shoulder capsule.
小王2009年復出, 在春訓看起來都一切正常
然後他開季後的頭三場先發
宇宙霹靂無敵驚死人的六局掉23分
洋基嚇到趕快用屁屁不適的理由把小王放到傷兵名單
但實際上是爭取一些時間讓他們可以檢查出小王到底中了什麼邪
5月22他又復出掙扎了一下, 旋即在7月4號宣佈09年球季結束
七月底的時候我們得知他得動手術以治癒肩膀的韌帶撕裂傷

: Back to the above graphs, it’s clear that Wang released his sinker from an
: even further over the top arm slot in 2009. This caused many of his pitches
: to fall flat. So flat, in fact, that PitchFx categorized many of them as
: two-seam fastballs. Wang had thrown just under 5 percent two-seamers in
: 2008 — which could also have really been flat sinkers — and that number
: jumped to 22.9 percent in 2009. His fastball took a somewhat corresponding
: hit, as he threw it 73.6 percent of the time in 2008 and only 56.8 percent
: in 2009.
讓我們回到上面的三張精美專業圖
這很明顯可以看出小王09年丟伸卡的放球點都嘛很高
這導致了他的伸卡球平平，不會下沉
平到甚至很多伸卡球還被誤認為是二縫線速球
09年數據顯示小王丟了22.9%的二縫線
但事實上小王08年才丟不到5趴的二縫線
09年他的速球比例也不如以往


: We learned earlier today that the Nationals will announce that they’ve
: signed Wang at a press conference on Friday. While his recovery from shoulder
: surgery remains the foremost concern, the Nationals also have to work to get
: his release point back to where it was in 2006, 2007, and early 2008. It
: seems that’s a big part of his sinker’s success. Without that bread and
: butter pitch Wang has a much lesser chance of recovery to his previous form.
: A big thanks to my buddy Jay Gargiulo and my friend and colleague Mike Axisa
: for putting together much of this data. The three of us are going to miss
: having Wang in the Yankees’ rotation.
: http://tinyurl.com/yatn4tr
我們得知國民隊將要宣佈簽下小王
即使他的肩膀手術仍然讓大家心驚驚
國民隊還是毅然決然地梭了, 就跟你賭這把小王可以恢復到全盛時期
看起來似乎小王的伸卡很有機會復活
說實在的如果沒了這項吃飯的武器小王就真的別混了
感謝我的好友跟同事熱情贊助這些資料

我們三個會想念小王待在洋基先發輪值的那段美好時光的~

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◆ From: 114.42.62.167
※ 編輯: kkk3kman        來自: 114.42.62.167        (03/27 12:12)
推 hammer311:推
推 dogmoon:  推
推 sean302:有看有推^^
推 saew:推:)!!
推 ahiru:所以說，其實洋基教練團要求放球點要高根本就是唬爛
推 sunmanbk:
推 cski:3/4側投是for sinker. 高壓式投法for slide. 是否這是關鍵點
推 phix:高壓投真的不適合王啦...