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midableakseasonforNewYorkYankeesfans,scienceoffers
somesolace--thewrongteam,theFloridaMarlins,beatthem
in2003'sWorldSeries,findsastudy.
"Theworldofsportsprovidesanideallaboratoryformodeling
competitionbecausegamedataareaccurate,abundant,andaccessible,"
answersthestudyinthejournalPhysicalReviewE."Evenafter
alongseriesofcompetitions,thebestteamdoesnotalways
finishfirst."
READTHESTUDY:Efficiencyofcompetitions
LOSALAMOSNATIONALLAB:Randomnessincompetitions
Theproblem,saystudyauthorsEliBen-NaimandNickHengartner
oftheLosAlamos(N.M.)NationalLaboratory,isthatthebaseball
season,atamere162games,istooshort.Instead,thenumber
ofgamesthatwouldkeepalucky-but-lousyteamfromdethroning
astatisticallysuperiorteamis265.
Thestudyauthors,whospecializeinstudyingrandombehaviorin
complexmaterials,pluggedtheoddsoflow-seedteamsbeating
high-seedones,44%inbaseballoverthelastcentury,intoa
mathematicalmodelofatypicalseason.
Themoregamesplayed,thebetterthechancesthatthehigher
seededteamswillbecomechampions,accordingtothestudy.
Anditbecomeslesslikelythataweakteamwillweaselitswaytothetop.
ButtoensurethatthebestMajorLeagueBaseballteamwins,
alongerWorldSeries,say11games,wouldbemathematically
appropriate."Thesameistrueforothercompetitionsinarts,
scienceandpolitics,"writethestudyauthors.
Amoreefficientcompetitiveprocesswouldbetoschedulea
preliminaryseriesofcompetitionstoculltheobviouslybad
teams,andthenfollowwithalongerseasondevotedtoonlythegoodones.
"Inreallife,wehavetocompeteallthetime,rankpeople,
rankproposalsandotherthings,"Ben-Naimsays.Thestudy
suggestsamoreefficientapproachinsuchcaseswouldbeto
throwouttheworstcompetit.
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