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http://www.baseball-intellect.com/st-louis-cardinals-top-prospects-2011/
今天剛出爐的排名，目前只有 Top 1-5
Rk. Name Pos. Age Grade
1 Shelby Miller RHP 20 A-
2 Zack Cox 3B 21 B
Advanced hitter doesn't have huge upside, but should be an above
average regular in the not-too-distant future.
3 Carlos Martinez RHP 19 B
Extremely young pitcher with huge helium as a prospect. Biggest
weapon is a upper 90's fastball that he commands well.
4 Tyrell Jenkins RHP 18 B-
One of the best athletes in the 2010 draft. He's raw, but his upside
is sky high.
5 Lance Lynn RHP 23 B-
...Stuff jumped in the middle of the season...
____________________________________________________________________
Shelby Miller
Fastball 65 now / 70 future
Curveball 55 / 60
Changeup 50 / 60
Control 45 / 55
Command 45 / 55
Pitchability 50 / 60
ETA Late 2012
Final Grade A-
Body Type
He's got a tremendous pitcher's frame. He's filled out some since he was
drafted in 2009, but looks like somebody who still has some room left to
grow and get stronger.
Stuff
Fastball - An outstanding offering that ranges anywhere from 94-98 mph with
excellent life. The pitch doesn't have any one type of movement.
It's a little straighter up in the zone, but the upper end of the
strike zone is typically when Miller's fastball has its best life
and is most difficult to pick up.
Thrown around belt high, you start to see some running action to
the pitch. Move a little lower, to around knee high, and the pitch
combines that running action with a little more sink, as it starts
to bore into right handed hitters.
And then there are instances where Miller ends up releasing the
ball late, starting it off on a low trajectory. When he does that,
the ball simply travels down hill and it's likely to end up around
shin high, where it's almost impossible to lift.
Curveball - Clocked in the mid-upper 70's, Miller's curveball grades out as
plus at its best. The pitch has a big, but sharp 12-to-6 break.
It needs to become a little more consistent, however. He doesn't
always get on top of the pitch, so it doesn't break in the way
it's supposed to.
The pitch comes out of his hand looking like a high fastball, and
he sells it well. At release, it actually looks like he throws
with more intent than he does with his fastball. Hitters see this
and react as if something hard is thrown, which gets them off-
balance and leaves them paralyzed with in-decision once they pick
up the pitch thrown was not a fastball.
Other than the lack of consistency, my main problem with Miller's
curveball is that it sometimes comes from a slightly higher arm
slot than the fastball,
Change-Up - This was an area of concern for Miller in high school, since he
didn't throw one then. Scouts who were projecting Miller's future
suggested his delivery and arm slot were well suited for a change-
up. Those scouts were right, as Miller featured a change-up that
would flash plus at times last year, featuring impressive sink
and fading action. Miller also did well maintaining a fastball
arm speed.
However, because the pitch was so new to him, consistency was an
issue. He needs time to establish a better feel for the pitch as
change-ups tend to get better the more you throw them. In addition
, he'll have to improve his command of the pitch.
Mechanics
I love what Miller does from a mechanical standpoint. They are a perfect
combination of power, control, and repeatability.
I stated prior to the 2010 season that Miller has plenty of velocity left in
the tank, and even though his velocity did tick up a bit last year from his
high school years, I still feel there is more velocity waiting to be unleashed
. Some of that will come with added strength. But some of that will also come
with mechanical tweaks, some of which have already happened. Below you see the
high school version of Miller on the left and Miller from last year on the
right…
http://goo.gl/RaXOl http://goo.gl/xRhi0
Two of the adjustments I particularly liked were also very simple to implement
. To start, you can see Miller is last year was stepping into his leg kick, so
he was able to build up momentum early. This enables him to get his hips
moving a little earlier as well, which is the second adjustment. He does a
better jof of drifting through his balance point, leading with his hips and
letting gravity do its work.
The third change is something the Cardinals' organization might as well patent
. Miller added a ball-pound, where he briefly takes the ball out of his glove,
pounds it, and then gets moving. It occurs at around the time where the front
leg begins to move downward. I believe it’s used as a timing mechanism to
begin aggressively and quickly moving the body forward.
The ball-pound is something many of the Cardinals’ power arms use. Jason
Motte does it, Francisco Samuel does it, and Chris Perez, when he was a member
of the Cardinals, used it too.
Other changes are more easily seen by looking at the behind the plate view of
Miller. Here are some things to take note of. Again, his draft video is on the
left and the 2010 version is on the right:
1. A shorter leg kick with the hands a little more out in front of the body,
rather than up against it. It's hard to the ball-pound when the hands are
pressed up against the body.
http://goo.gl/6VJma http://goo.gl/AEOqa
2. The bigger change might actually be the bending over of the torso at the
waist. This enables Miller to generate the necessary torque between his
torso and hips, and perhaps give his arm more range-of-motion so he can
achieve a deeper load. But if you compare the two versions, it's more
dramatic this year. And it's combined with another adjustment…
3. A little more reverse shoulder rotation. This is something that can not
only add more torque to his delivery, but also more deception. Notice how
his back turns a little more toward the hitter. This makes it more
difficult for hitters to pick up his release point.
This change also means he lands a little more closed than before. You can
decide whether that is a good thing or bad thing. There are points to be made
on both sides.
The one area I remain unimpressed with Miller mechanically is what he does
with his glove-side. Yes, he gets the job done - he does firm the glove up,
but rather than leave it out in front of the chest, he sorta curls it into
his side, which isn't ideal. I also notice he's not consistent with his
glove-side.
If you break down Miller on a pitch-by-pitch basis, you'll notice his glove
varies somewhat in the position it's in at release. That could be a
contributing factor to Miller's inconsistent command.
By the Numbers
Miller overwhelmed hitters in the Midwest League last year. He struck out over
31% of all batters faced and he strung together some extremely impressive
starts throughout. However, I was surprised by how well the league fared when
actually able to make contact. Miller's BABIP against was .357, far too high
for a pitcher with his stuff. That tells you his command must improve…and
that he needs a little more luck on his side.
Miller could start next year in A+ Palm Beach, but there has been talk of
giving him an aggressive assignment to Double-A Springfield. My guess is
probably something in-between. Start him in Palm Beach, and then move him to
Springfield if he starts strong.
Best Case Outcome - No. 1 starter
More Likely Outcome - No. 2 starter
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