[翻譯] Cardinals Insider:The shift is on (下)

[ck3300511 (迪恩)]

BY THE NUMBERS
數字會說話

Hurdle’s Pirates saved 77 runs with their defense last season, according to
Baseball Info Solutions. They ranked third in baseball. (The Cardinals were
minus-39, 14th in the NL.) Embracing baseball’s answer to the “prevent”
 defense, Pittsburgh had the shift on 494 times when a ball was put in play
last year. That’s up from 105 in 2012. The Pirates even move from pitch to
pitch, playing musical infield by stationing infielders different for a 0-1
pitch than a 2-0 pitch to Cardinals’ infielder Matt Carpenter.
Two teams in the NL Central, Milwaukee and the Cubs, shifted more often than
the Pirates in 2013. In the American League East, where designated hitters
roam, teams such as the Orioles (595), Rays (556), and Yankees (475) shifted
often.

根據Baseball Info Solutions，海盜隊的防守去年守住了77分，排名第三。(紅鳥則是
丟了39分，國聯倒數第一。)去年海盜佈陣了494次，比2012年增加了105次。海盜隊甚至
會依據不同的球數來做不同的佈陣，在球數0-1和0-2時變換不同的內野防守陣型來對付
紅鳥內野手Matt Carpenter。兩個國中的隊伍-酒鬼和小熊比2013年的海盜更常使用佈陣。
在美聯東區，有指定打擊的地方，一些隊伍像是金鳥(595)、光芒(556)和洋基(475)常常
使用佈陣。

The Cardinals’ 107 shifts ranked last in their division, 10th in the NL.
It’s twice as many as they used in 2012 and still they’re off pace.

紅鳥使用佈陣107次在國中排名最後，國聯第10。他們在2012年已經比以往更常使用佈陣
，但增加的速度還是很慢。

end of 2013, 8,134 shifts had been counted. Entering the weekend, the Houston
Astros had shifted 112 times this season, putting them on pace for 1,814 alone
just three seasons after all 30 teams had approximately 2,300 combined.

2013年季末，一年來總共有8134次的佈陣。太空人這季總共佈陣了112次，使得近三年的
佈陣總數達到1814次，同樣的時間大聯盟30隊合計2300次而已。(這段是這樣翻嗎?)

“What you’re seeing right now is just availability,” said Tampa Bay manager
Joe Maddon, an early shifter. “A lot of it has been some teams won’t do it
because they’re just stubborn. It’s just a stubborn moment. ‘It’s never
been done before. Why should we do it now?’ … Within three, four, five years
at most, I’d be surprised if anybody does not do it.”

"你可以看到佈陣就是有用的，"很早就開始使用佈陣的光芒總教練Joe Maddon說"很多隊
不去使用佈陣因為他們只是固執，這是一個頑固的時刻。以前都沒有使用過佈陣，為什麼
我們現在要去用?經過三年、四年、五年，我會對還不使用佈陣的人感到驚訝。"

According to BIS stats, the Cards shifted 14 times during their first nine
games. That’s already more than half the 27 shifts they had through 98 games
last season.

根據BIS的數據,紅鳥在開季以來的九場比賽使用了14次佈陣，已經比去年的98場使用27次
的一半還多。

Throughout the organization this year, the Carls will be using shifts so that
minor-league pitchers and infielders get used to the look. Shifts should be
second nature.

紅鳥也會在小聯盟開始使用佈陣讓投手和內野手去習慣。

At the big-league level, though there never was “mass dissension,” Matheny
said he spent the spring selling his pitchers on the shift to erase lingering
reluctance. Third-base coach Jose Oquendo said the first step of the shift was
shifting perceptions: “Guys on our (pitching) staff had to get comfortable
doing it. That’s the start.”

在大聯盟沒有一個決定是無用的。MM說他花了整個春訓讓投手抹去對佈陣的不情願。三壘
指導教練Jose Oquendo說佈陣的第一步就是轉變觀念:"我們的投手會越來越習慣去做它，
這就是開始。"

A Cardinals starter can veto the shift — during the pregame meetings when
coaches and catchers outline who and when they will use imbalance on the
infield.

“You don’t have the right to give a dirty look or look frustrated or anything
else after that,” Matheny said. “They had their chance.”

紅鳥的先發投手可以在賽前會議時，當教練和捕手討論出誰和何時要使用佈陣時否決它。
。"在會議結束後你沒有權力去鄙視或對所有佈陣的決定感到沮喪，"MM說"已經給他們機會
了。"

Those communications have erased the “shock” factor Lynn felt.

Part of pitching the rotation on the shift has been the use of piles of data
available, as Maddon said. Matheny and his staff have access to metrics that
are the Google to a spray chart’s card catalog.

At Busch Stadium, the Cardinals have a TrackMan system, which is described by
its manufacturer as a “military-grade Doppler radar.” The Cards also
subscribe to an expanded Pitch F/x package. That information includes not just
where batters hit pitches, but what pitches they hit and how fast they hit
them, when an out was made.

賽前的溝通已經抹去了Lynn對佈陣所感到的驚訝。

(這段不會翻lol)

在Busch Stadium，紅鳥有一個TrackMan system，被它的製造商形容為"軍用等級的都普勒
雷達"。紅鳥還訂購了一個廣大的Pitch F/x package。它能提供的資訊不只有打者擊球的
落點，還有打者打了哪種球路和擊中球後球飛行的速度會造成出局。

The Cardinals can make decisions based on whether the hitters are likely to hit
ropes to shallow right field or dribblers to second. Once already this season,
the Cardinals moved Wong to shallow right and had Carpenter near the second
baseman’s position because Carpenter had a better chance of fielding the
potential slow-roller with a bare hand.

紅雀可以基於打者打出多強勁和哪個方向的球來做決定。這季的比賽中有一次紅鳥把Wong
移到較淺的右外野，小木匠移到靠近二壘壘包，因為小木匠有較大的機會徒手接到緩慢的
滾地球。

The Cardinals also cross-pollinate the data so that they limit the use of small
sample sizes. For example, Sunday starter Michael Wacha has limited experience
against all big-league hitters. The Cardinals can look for similar pitchers or
similar pitches to see what lefthanded and righthanded hitters do. That builds
a profile for what that hitter’s tendencies will be against Wacha. Shifts
ensue.

紅鳥還交叉比對數據來讓他們能最有效的使用小樣本的數據。舉個例子，禮拜天的先發投手
Wacha對所有聯盟的打者經驗都不太夠，所以紅鳥可以找相似的投手或相似的球種來看左打
者或右打者會怎麼面對他們。這些資料會建構打者們面對Wacha的打擊習性，而佈陣隨之而
來。

'STATISTICS DON'T LIE'
數據不會說謊

“We’re playing the odds,” Matheny said. “We understand that it’s not a
perfect science, but we definitely know it’s an educated guess. … Statistics
don’t lie. They may not tell the whole story. But they don’t lie. We’re
learning.”
This is not the first Cardinals club to embrace the shift, not by decades.
During the 1946 World Series, the Cardinals would move all but one infielder to
the right side when Boston’s Ted Williams came to the plate. This was called
the Boudreau Shift — after Cleveland manager Lou Boudreau — or, these days,
the Ted Williams Shift.

MM說"我們知道這不是一個完美的科學，但是我們肯定知道這是一個有憑有據的猜測。數據
不會說謊。它可能不會告訴你全部，但它不會說謊。我們正在學習。"這不是紅鳥第一次相
信佈陣，至少幾十年來不是。在1946年的世界大賽，當紅襪隊的Ted Williams上場打擊時
紅鳥把所有的內野手叫去右外野，只留下一個內野手。這被叫做Boudreau佈陣-在笑臉總教
練Lou Boudreau之後-或者今天人們管它叫做Ted Williams佈陣。

Cardinals manager Eddie Dyer didn’t have access to a Doppler radar or
megabytes of info on what Williams did against sinkerballers, but had the guts
to play against tradition. The shift frustrated Williams so that it was
headlines when he bunted trying to beat it. He hit .200, with only singles, in
that World Series — which the Cardinals won in seven.

紅鳥當時的總教練Eddie Dyer並沒有都普勒雷達或資料庫的數據資訊來得知Williams是如何
面對伸卡球投手，但是他有種不照傳統的方法去做。佈陣讓Williams頭痛不已所以當他使用
觸擊嘗試去破陣的時候，這可是大新聞。他在那次世界大賽只交出了.200的打擊率，安打通
通都是一壘安打-而紅鳥在第七戰拿下了世界大賽冠軍。

The past is present again.

Shifting is their future.

“If you’re taking three out of every four hits away then, yeah, I’m OK with
it,” Lynn said, grinning. “I love following the percentages — if they work
for me.”

過去的事情再度呈現在今日。

佈陣就是未來的趨勢

"如果你能從每四隻安打中抓到三個出局數，對我來講佈陣OK der"Lynn說，露齒而笑。"我
喜歡追隨數據-如果它們對我是有用的。"

--
翻錯的地方還煩請高手指證 肛溫m(_ _)m

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推 j0a8c2k1:
推 keepbusy:推翻譯
※ 編輯: ck3300511 (36.226.187.121), 04/14/2014 22:53:11
推 yenchenchou:有一句應該是:已經比去年的98場使用27次"的一半"還多
→ yenchenchou:翻譯辛苦了~
→ ck3300511:感謝指正
※ 編輯: ck3300511 (36.226.187.121), 04/14/2014 23:50:04
推 bh962603:推
推 brillanmela:太空人本季布陣 112次，預計球季結束達 1814次
→ brillanmela:三年前整個大聯盟僅2xxx次