推 lucky0623: 推!! 12/04 09:19
The Numbers Game: Give the offense some time
從數據看比賽: 給進攻一點時間
By John Schuhmann, NBA.com
Posted Dec 3 2008 1:00PM
I've read a couple of published articles in the last few days either praising
teams for taking a lesson from the Celtics and strengthening their defense
this season or lamenting the lack of offense that we have seen across the
league so far.
最近有許多篇文章稱讚聯盟球隊從塞爾提克身上學到經驗, 強化本季的防守. 也有許多
文章哀悼本季球隊進攻的低落.
Comparing the league-wide offensive rating (points scored per 100 possessions)
through October and November of this season (107.3) to the league-wide rating
from last season (109.1) would tell you that offense is down. Last week, in
looking at which teams had improved or worsened on either side of the ball,
we noted that only six teams had improved over their offensive rating from
last season.
從本季十月和十一月全聯盟的進攻表現(107.3)和去年整季的數據(109.1)做比較, 可以
看出進攻數據是下降的. 在上週一篇比較球隊攻防兩端進步與退步的文章中, 可發現只
有六隊目前的進攻數據比上一季好.
Maybe, in general, teams have decided that they need to be better defensive
teams in order to compete in today's NBA.
也許, 大致上來說, 各球隊決定加強防守來增加他們在聯盟中的競爭力.
Not so fast.
但別這麼快下結論.
If you break down last season's numbers month by month, you will see that the
league started out slowly and became more efficient offensively as the season
went on. And when you compare this season's first-month rating of 107.3, it's
actually up from last season's first-month rating of 106.5.
如果把上一季的數據拆開來看單月成績, 你會發現整個聯盟是相當慢熱的, 進攻會逐漸
加溫. 而當你比較本季首月的進攻數據(107.3), 事實上比上季首月的數據(106.5)要來
的高.
2007-08 Offensive Ratings
Month Offensive Rating
October-November 106.5
December 107.8
January 109.0
February 109.8
March-April 111.3
Season 109.1
Of the 30 teams, only four (Dallas, Memphis, Milwaukee and San Antonio) had
higher offensive ratings on Dec. 1, 2007 than they did at the end of the
season. The other 26 all became more efficient after the first month.
在30支球隊中, 只有四隊(小牛, 灰熊, 公鹿, 馬刺) 在上季的首月進攻數據比球隊全季
數據來的高. 其餘26隊都在隨後提升了進攻數據.
Further, in every season since the lockout-shortened '98-99 campaign, the
league-wide offensive rating has increased from the first month. In 2002-03,
it increased by more than three points per 100 possessions. The average
increase over the nine seasons is 2.2 points per 100 possessions.
更進一步來看, 自從98-99縮水球季之後的每個球季, 全聯盟的進攻數據在首月之後都是
上升的. 02-03年, 全季數據比首月高了三分, 九年來的平均全季進攻數據比首月高了
2.2分.
Offensive Rating Through The Years
Oct.-Nov. Season Increase
2007-08 106.5 109.1 2.6
2006-07 106.6 108.0 1.4
2005-06 105.2 107.7 2.5
2004-05 105.1 107.4 2.3
2003-04 102.0 104.2 2.2
2002-03 101.5 104.9 3.4
2001-02 104.4 105.8 1.4
2000-01 101.6 104.4 2.8
1999-00 103.9 105.5 1.6
It's fairly easy to come up with reasons for improved offensive efficiency as
the season goes on. At the beginning of the season, teams are trying to
integrate new personnel, either new players or new coaches. Chemistry and
cohesiveness are clearly keys to a sharp offense. Just think about all the
turnovers you see in Summer League or All-Star games, when guys are playing
with each other for the first time.
這種現象是相當合理的. 在球季之初, 球隊需要整合新成員, 不論是新球員還是新教練.
球隊的化學效應與球員默契是提升進攻的關鍵. 只要看看夏季聯盟和全明星賽的失誤率就
知道, 和陌生的隊友打球會發生什麼事.
Last October and November, teams turned the ball over 16.5 times per 100
possessions. That number was down to 15.4 by the end of the season. Shooting
also improved as the year went on.
去年的十月和十一月, 全聯盟球隊在100次進攻中, 平均發生16.5次失誤. 到球季結束時,
這個數據下降到15.4次. 命中率也是在球季中會逐漸提升的.
At the beginning of the season, coaches have also added new offensive sets
that the players need to adjust to. And in October and November, coaches
haven't even put in all of their sets, so a team may be working with an
abridged playbook. As the season goes on, new sets, plays and options are
added to what each team does offensively.
在球季之初, 教練也會加入一些新戰術. 在十月和十一月, 教練甚至還沒嘗試完所有新花
樣.
I think that's what makes the Cavs' improvement from last year so impressive.
A week after our most improved analysis, Cleveland is still the best offensive
team in the league and still the team that has shown the greatest improvement
on that end of the floor.
這也顯得騎士隊今年的進步是多麼難得. 在上週關於球隊進攻方面進步程度的分析文章之
後, 騎士仍然保持著全聯盟最佳的進攻數據, 同時也是與上季相比進步最多的.
They're doing that while integrating a new point guard, as well as
implementing some new offensive sets. You had to think that they would be
improved by adding a scorer like Mo Williams to the lineup, but to be this
good this early, especially when you consider the league-wide trend of
starting slowly and getting better with time, makes what they've done that
much more impressive.
在提升進攻的同時, 騎士還要整合他們的新控衛和適應一些新戰術. 在得分好手Mo的加入
之後, 你可以預期到騎士的進攻會有進步, 但不會想到效果這麼好, 來的這麼快. 尤其是
在考量到整個聯盟的慢熱情況下, 騎士目前的數據更顯可貴.
Imagine how good Cleveland could be if Daniel Gibson, shooting just .364 from
the field and .260 from downtown, starts finding his shot. The thought is
pretty scary.
想像一下如果Gibson (目前命中率0.364, 三分命中率0.260)恢復手感, 騎士將會變得相
當可怕.
So, for those who think games have been a little too ugly for their taste so
far this season, have patience. The offense will come around. The numbers
don't lie.
所以對於那些覺得本季比賽乏味的人們, 請多點耐心. 進攻將會提升. 數據不會騙人.
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