[外電] 70勝的機會

[chucloud (楚雲)]

PER Diem: Dec. 5, 2008
 By John Hollinger
 ESPN.com

We've heard the whispers all season: Can the Lakers win 70?

With the L.A. juggernaut off to a 15-2 start that includes an average scoring
margin of a staggering 12.8 points per game, and with the Lakers adding star
center Andrew Bynum to a mix that already was good enough to win the West a
year ago, it's becoming an increasingly relevant question to ask.

Certainly the capability seems there. The Lakers have one of the game's best
players in Kobe Bryant, two All-Star caliber big men in Bynum and Pau Gasol,
and a second unit so capable that it could probably make the Eastern
Conference playoffs on its own.

While Lakers coach Phil Jackson downplayed his team's chances of winning 70
this week, noting the difficulty of the travel for Western Conference teams,
the Playoff Odds still see a chance for L.A. In playing out 5,000 simulated
seasons, the Playoff Odds have the Lakers winning 70 or more games 515 times,
or 10.3 percent of the time (see chart).

As for equaling the 1995-96 Bulls' mark of 72-10, the Lakers pull that feat
off in 187 instances, or 3.7 percent of the time. And to win 73 or more games
is still faintly possible as well -- they did so in 2 percent of the
simulations.

Of course, there's one problem with that analysis: It ignores strategic
considerations. Several recent teams have seemed on pace to break the 70
barrier, only to fall short when they began resting their starters in
anticipation of the playoffs. With nobody pushing L.A. for second in the
Western Conference, it appears likely they'll be following the same
blueprint. Since even the littlest bit of late-season backsliding makes the
goal of winning 70 far more daunting, it stands to reason that the Lakers'
odds are really much lower than the ones I stated above.


---------------------------以上在講湖人的分隔線------------------------------


In fact, the ideal scenario for a team to win 70 or more would be a situation
where a great team has a second team closely pushing it for the conference's
top seed, because then each team has an incentive to keep playing its top
performers heavy minutes straight through April. In the absence of a
once-a-century collection of talent and chemistry like Jackson's Bulls had,
winning 70 requires more than a great team -- it also requires great
competition.

產生70勝球隊的理想狀況是: 兩支同區強隊處於激烈的第一種子競爭之下. 除非是像當年
的公牛擁有百年難得一見的陣容, 否則激烈的競爭才是產生70勝球隊的重要因素.

That's why what's happening in the East is so interesting. Boston (18-2) and
Cleveland (15-3) have already run away from the rest of the conference, and
both are on pace to threaten the 70-win plateau. For each, the best chance of
breaking through would be if the other stays close enough to push them
through April. So far, it seems we might be headed for that outcome.

這就是東區目前的有趣之處. Boston (18-2)和Cleveland (15-3)目前遙遙領先同區球隊
. 兩隊都有機會拿下超過70勝. 兩隊能否拉鋸持續到四月將是超越70勝的關鍵. 目前來看
是有機會的.

According to the Playoff Odds, it's Cleveland, not L.A. or Boston, that has
the best chance of breaking the 70-win barrier. The Cavs did so in 20.8
percent of the simulations, giving them better than 1-in-5 odds. They match
Jordan's 72-win team in 9.4 percent, and break the record with 73 or more in
5.1 percent.

根據Playoff Odds(季後賽機率, 應該是某個軟體)模擬的結果, Cleveland比LA和Boston
更有機會超越70勝. 在5000次的模擬當中, 騎士有20.8%的機率超越70勝, 超過1/5的機會
. 9.4%追平Jordan當年72勝的成績. 5.1%創下73勝的紀錄.

Odds of winning 70+ games*
    Team     Winning 70+      Winning 72+     Winning 73+
  Cavaliers     20.8%            9.4%           5.1% 
  Lakers        10.3%            3.7%           2.0%
  Celtics        5.9%            2.6%           1.2%
* Based on Playoff Odds tool, through Wednesday's games

Boston is right behind them, projecting to win 70 or more games 5.9 percent
of the time, and busting through with 73 in 1.2 percent of simulations. And
because the Celtics and Cavs can push each other all winter long, these odds
seem a bit more realistic than the ones for the Lakers.

Boston緊追在後. 有5.9%的機會超越70勝. 1.2%創下73勝紀錄. 由於騎士和超賽的競爭,
現實中達成的機會看來比湖人更有希望.

Of course, by far the most likely outcome remains that nobody wins 70.
Today's Playoff Odds see all three clubs settling between 62 and 66 wins,
which makes sense -- while everything has gone right for the league's power
trio so far, too many things can go awry in an 82-game grind for a 70-win
season to be probable.

當然, 最有可能的結果是沒有人超過70勝, 而是介於62-66勝之間, 比較合理的結果. 到
球季結束之前有太多的變數會使希望幻滅.

Besides, the ultimate goal is to be on top not in April, but in June. Even if
Boston and Cleveland are fighting for the East's top seed, neither club
should be expected to sacrifice its chances in May and June just to scratch
out an extra W in February. That's why the Bulls' 72-10 mark was such an
extraordinary achievement -- and why, even with two dominant Eastern teams
pushing each other, both are likely to fall short of it.

此外, 球隊的最終目標不是在四月, 而是在六月. 沒有一個球隊會為了爭奪第一種子, 而
犧牲五六月的勝利機會去換取二月的一勝. 這也是為何公牛當年的成績如此獨特, 即使兩
支強隊互相砥礪也難以達成之故.

--
  雖然模擬不等於事實  不過還是可以期待一下


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推 lucky0623:推!!挑戰不可能吧!!騎士!!!!!
※ chucloud:轉錄至看板 NBA                                         12/07 11:45
→ jinpenchi:那個軟體是2K9嗎?我模擬82連勝耶...
推 cherngru:推辛苦翻譯外電，也對有好的騎士文章多轉NBA板表示贊同!!
→ chucloud:轉NBA版心理都會毛毛的 怕被戰
推 cherngru:我覺得很多外電都有很獨到的觀點或不為人所知的新聞
→ cherngru:多轉總版可以增加那裡對騎士隊的認識，不然都很刻版印象
→ cherngru:我也覺得大家多在NBA板發言，也有助於那裡對騎士隊的觀感