[外電] 一篇ESPN總結Shaq miss兩個月的可能影響

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    Can Cavs cope without Shaq?
    PER Diem: March 1, 2010
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    By John Hollinger
    ESPN.com

    Looking for a game-changer for the playoffs? Well, we're past the
    deadline for trades, so those are out, and we're past the point
    where a team can make a wholesale identity shift. But there's
    still one big destiny-shifter left on the table: injuries.
        過了季中交易，唯一能影響到季後賽的不穩定因素，就是傷病了。

    We saw a doozy on Thursday night, when Boston's Glen Davis chopped
     down on Shaquille O'Neal's hand hard enough to tear ligaments in
    Shaq's thumb; amazingly, no foul was called on the play. O'Neal
    will need surgery and miss six to eight weeks, effectively ending
    his regular season and suddenly leaving the Cavs scrambling for
    frontcourt help.
        在禮拜四的夜晚，我們就看到了這不幸的一幕。
        波士頓的大娃娃的一個犯規撕裂了大歐的手筋，
        讓人驚訝的是竟然還沒有被吹犯規。 =.=
        大歐將會錯失6-8個禮拜，嚴重影響到騎士未來的前場調度。

    First, let's look at the immediate ramifications.
        先來看看立即的影響。

    Cleveland already traded Zydrunas Ilgauskas and can't re-sign him
    until March 22. While all indications are that Big Z will return
    to Cleveland, the Cavs play 11 games prior to Ilgauskas'
    eligibility. It's a fairly easy stretch of schedule, but it's
    possible a few of those games -- at Milwaukee, at Chicago, home
    against Boston and San Antonio -- could hinge on Cleveland's
    sudden lack of size inside.
        騎士在三月22號之前估計都沒有中鋒，因為大Z的交易。
        如果大Z順利回來，在這之前騎士也有11場比賽要打，
        總的來說這11場比賽並不難，重點是對上有強硬前場的球隊該怎麼辦，
        這包括了公鹿和公牛的客場，以及波士頓和馬刺的主場。

    Anderson Varejao will start at center (likely costing him any
    chance he had of winning the NBA Sixth Man Award), while
    traditional 4s like Leon Powe, Darnell Jackson and J.J. Hickson
    will be pressed into service as backup 5s. It's an imperfect
    arrangement that leaves the Cavs vulnerable to bullish centers;
    fortunately for Cleveland, the likes of Dwight Howard and Andrew
    Bynum aren't on the schedule 'til Z comes back.
        大V將會在這段期間扛中鋒（也可能讓他失去了任何還有可能
        拿最佳第六人的機會），而傳統的大前鋒，如砲哥，Jackson和JJ
        也有可能被拉去打中鋒。這當然對騎士來說是不完美的情況，
        不過好運的是，這段時間不會遇到像是魔獸或是拜男這種力量型中鋒。

    After that date, however, Cleveland may still have issues. The
    34-year-old Ilgauskas has declined noticeably this season, and
    while he makes a decent backup for Varejao he's not suitable for
    extended duty in the middle.
        然而過了3/22，騎士還是大有問題。
        大Z本季的衰竭非常明顯，即使他和大V共扛中鋒，
        他也不可能扛太久了。

    But as we commonly see with injuries, the biggest problem is not
    the replacement, but the replacement's replacement. Swapping out
    Shaq for Varejao isn't huge in itself, but it has several knock-on
     effects. For one thing, it takes one of the Cavs' most effective
    lineups off the table: Virtually every group that pairs Varejao
    and Ilgauskas has a superior plus/minus. When teaming those two
    with the three perimeter starters, Cleveland outscores opponents
    by a whopping 28 points per 100 possessions.
        傷病帶來的困擾，通常不是替補，而是替補的替補。
        用大V代替大歐問題本身還好，重點是這個替換帶來的負面效應。
        最明顯的是，當大V和大Z替補上陣時，在加另外三隻已經證明是
        騎士最有效贏對手的陣容，平均每100個攻守交換裡，這樣的陣容
        可以慘贏對手28分。如今，因為大歐的出局，這種陣容很難出現。

    That option won't be on the table for another three weeks, and
    even then the pairing will be rare if Ilgauskas is backing up
    Varejao. Additionally, it forces undersized players into the
    center rotation until Ilgauskas returns, and Shaq's absence
    eliminates a go-to option when LeBron James is off the floor.
        第一，至少大Z回來前看不到。第二，大Z回來後估計也只有一人
        會在場上。更別提要用小個兒去扛中鋒，大歐不能打也讓其他隊
        更好防守LBJ。

    The Cavs are running away with the East, standing six games ahead
    of Orlando with only 22 to play for each side, and thus are
    virtually assured of the top seed in the East, Shaq or no Shaq.
    Home-court advantage in a potential Finals matchup with the Lakers
     may be a casualty of O'Neal's injury -- Cleveland has only a
    one-game lead, which effectively becomes two games when one
    factors in the tiebreaker advantage -- but as far as the regular
    season goes, that's the main concern.
        騎士隊估計是能拿下東區最佳勝率，無論有沒有大歐與否。
        重點是他們能不能拿下聯盟最佳勝率，尤其湖人才落後一場勝差。

    Instead, the more crucial question is how Shaq's absence might
    affect Cleveland in the postseason.
        最重要的是，大歐的傷會如何影響騎士的季後賽。

    On this front, the news is mostly good. O'Neal is likely to return
     by late April, during the first round. Cleveland doesn't figure
    to have too much trouble getting out of Round 1 without him, even
    if a nemesis, Charlotte, is the first-round opponent. (The Bobcats
     beat Cleveland three out of four times this season.)
        如果從這個角度看，或許這不是太糟。大歐估計會在四月底回歸，
        也就是第一輪的時間。騎士第一輪有沒有大歐估計都沒問題，
        即使遇到季賽的剋星山貓。

    By the time the second round starts, O'Neal should be back, but
    his return might come at what could be the trickiest time of the
    season. Cleveland will be working him back in the rotation while
    locked in a tough series against (most likely) Atlanta or Boston.
    Atlanta, in particular, could prove a difficult environment for
    working a big center back into playing shape, because the Hawks'
    frontcourt players run the floor so well.
        最晚大歐在第二輪也會付出了。但是這卻是一件很巧妙的付出時間。
        因為騎士要學習怎麼在對付第二輪強敵時，不管是老鷹還是Bos，
        把大歐重新排回輪值，這將會是一個非常困難的情況，尤其老鷹
        的前場跑動很快，不會給大歐太多找回最佳狀況的空間和時間。

    Here's the silver lining: By the time we get to mid-May and
    Cleveland has to face Orlando and/or the Lakers -- the two teams
    Shaq was brought in to match up against -- the Cavs should have a
    healthy Shaq. What's more, they should have a rested Shaq. The big
     fella had missed only five games this season before the hand
    injury and was on track to play his most games in a decade; the
    two-month break should allow all his other sore limbs to heal
    before the games that matter most.
        當然最佳狀況是，騎士第二輪辦到了，大歐也藉由第二輪的磨練
        恢復了身手，那就到五月中以後遇到魔術或是湖人了，這兩隊是當初
        騎士簽下大歐的主因。而到時候騎士會有一個很健康的大歐。不只如此，
        還是一個休息夠久體力夠好的大歐。
        受傷可以讓大歐在打最重要的季後賽之前得到足夠的休息。

    Whether that silver-lining scenario becomes relevant depends on
    what kind of shape he'll come back in, and how quickly the Cavs
    can regain their on-court chemistry with Shaq. Newly acquired
    Antawn Jamison, in particular, will barely have played with Shaq
    when the conference finals begin, while all the other Cavs will
    have to adjust to shifting roles when he returns.
        當然上面最佳情況存在於否在於大歐以什麼樣的體態回來，和騎士
        能在多短的時間內讓磨合大歐回來後的陣容。
        別忘了，傑米神幾乎沒跟大毆打過幾場。
        其他隊員也要重新適應大歐回來後他們的新角色。

    If Shaq returns as the force he was in January and February, that
    won't be an issue. O'Neal played some of his best basketball
    before the injury, shooting better than 60 percent from the field
    with nearly 14 points a game after Jan. 1. Unfortunately, he has a
     habit of letting himself go when he's not in-season. If that
    happens again and he returns as the slow, plodding Shaq of
    November and December, the Cavs could have a serious problem.
        如果大歐以一月或二月的狀態付出，那這些都不是問題了。
        大歐在2010年平均命中率破六成，每場能得14分。
        不過大歐有個壞習慣就是當他不打球時，他就會變成歐肥。
        如果到時後是歐肥回來，那騎士的季候賽就有很大的問題了。

    Thus, while this injury tremor isn't of the magnitude of Kevin
    Garnett's season-ending knee injury last spring, Shaq's absence
    could have a major impact on the postseason. Losing him at the
    same time Ilgauskas serves his 30-day furlough could end up
    costing Cleveland the home-court advantage in a Finals matchup
    with the Lakers, and it could sidetrack the increasingly
    comfortable on-court chemistry among the Cavs' offseason pickups.
        所以雖然大歐的傷不會像去年假奶的傷造成一樣嚴重的影響，
        但是也會有很巨大的效應，尤其在季候賽裡面。
        最糟的狀況是，騎士失去了主場優勢，而且化學效應也被打亂。

    But mostly, it could allow Shaq to tack on a few pounds and reduce
     his effectiveness for the games that matter most. If he can keep
    up his conditioning, the impact of his injury should be
    negligible. Based on his history, however, that outcome is very
    much in question.
        不過現階段最有可能的是，大歐變成歐肥。如果復健中的大歐
        能保持身體狀態，那受傷造成的影響就會減到最低。
        不過以往年的大歐來看，大歐變成歐肥的機會不小....囧。




        基本上，我覺得後兩段就是我最擔心的，雖然大歐變成功能性球員
        不過就因為這樣，所以「功能」在不在很重要阿，
        而且還不能影響到其他功能才行，這個傷真的不是時候，哎～

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推 victor21835:大歐很好用阿 打20分鐘 10/10左右的數據~
→ victor21835:偶而還可以爆發一下  XD 還有很多數據上看不到的
→ kenta10:希望大歐這段期間要督促自己。手指受傷還是可以練體能吧
推 TiangLei:個人覺得沒有大歐是非常不好的..... 大歐實在太重要了
推 arenasis:也還好不是更晚一點,要不然進入東區冠軍戰沒大歐就難辦了