原文網址如下
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-100330
Normally at this time of year, we would be writing breathless
articles about the MVP race, rallying our support behind one
candidate or another and sifting through torrents of angry e-mails
supporting that player's rivals.
通常每年這個時候大家都在討論年度MVP,並且為幾個有可能的得獎人
爭論的激烈不休。
Not this year.
今年不然。
The MVP race has been over since about mid-January. LeBron James
has run so far away from the pack that he could shoot 0-for-100
from the field over his final eight games and still win the award
going away. (For fun, I fact-checked this: Even with 100 straight
misses, no assists and no rebounds in his next 200 minutes, he'd
still lead the league in PER.)
今年的年度MVP爭奪賽基本上在一月中就可以說劃上休止符。
喇叭詹遠遠的把所有人都拋在後頭,就算他最後八場比賽
投100球零命中也不影響他得獎。
(基於好奇,我還真的做了這樣的測試,如果喇叭詹最後八場是
在兩百分鐘內連續失投100球,而且八場比賽傳不出一個助攻
也抓不到一個籃板,他的PER值還是樂勝所有球員。)
Only two items of interest remain. First, will some sycophant
homer screw up what should be a unanimous decision with a
completely indefensible vote for his local guy? And second, is
this the best individual season a player has ever had?
所以只剩兩件事情讓人感興趣了。第一,會不會有哪個愛鄉
愛家的死忠記者讓喇叭詹全票當選MVP的可能性破功?
第二,LBJ的數據是不是歷年來最好的個人數據?
As you might suspect, today's topic deals with the second of those
questions. Some of this may sound familiar, as this time a year
ago I mentioned that James was en route to one of the best
statistical seasons in history.
(依照我一貫的筆觸,)你可以猜到,今天的主題討論的是第二個問題。
尤其去年我也寫了一篇類似的文章。
Here's the thing: This season, he's been better.
即便如此,今年的喇叭,比往年更喇叭!
Once again, a hallowed record (at least in my world) is in play
for James as we enter the final eight games: He could surpass
Michael Jordan's 1987-88 campaign for the greatest single-season
PER in the modern era. I have to add the "modern" qualifier
because the league didn't keep track of things like blocks and
individual turnovers before 1973-74, rendering the PER exercise a
guessing game for players from previous eras.
如同以往,喇叭詹今年依然有可能打破老喬在1987-88年所創造的
「現代」籃球裡最高的PER值記錄,之所以加註「現代」,只追溯到
1973-74年,是因為在73年以前的NBA並沒有記錄火鍋和失誤這兩項重要數值。
James' current PER of 31.81 is second best in "modern" history,
and with eight games left (of which he'll probably play only five
or six), he retains an outside shot at breaking Jordan's all-time
mark of 31.89. At the very least, he's going to be within hailing
distance.
以這標準來看,喇叭詹目前的PER是31.81,僅次於老喬于87-88年的31.89。
雖然說最後八場比賽他可能輕鬆應對,不過不可否認球季結束後他的PER
值離最佳記錄理應是咫尺之遙。
Top All-time PER Seasons
歷年來最佳的PER值記錄
Player Year PPG RPG APG MPG PER
Michael Jordan 1987-88 35.0 5.5 5.9 40.4 31.89
LeBron James 2009-10 29.8 7.2 8.6 39.0 31.81
Michael Jordan 1990-91 31.5 6.0 5.5 37.0 31.79
LeBron James 2008-09 28.4 7.6 7.2 38.6 31.76
Michael Jordan 1989-90 33.6 6.9 6.3 39.0 31.31
Michael Jordan 1988-89 32.5 8.0 8.0 40.2 31.29
Regardless, James will almost certainly set another record: The
best two-year PER stretch of any player in history. James was no
slouch last season, finishing at 31.76 for the third-best PER ever
(well, until he bumped it down to fourth this season); combined,
that gives him a two-year average of 31.78. The best Jordan
mustered was 31.55.
不過不論今年結果如何,LBJ可幾乎確定的是將保有另一項記錄:
歷來連續兩年最佳PER值的平均。LBJ今年和去年的平均目前是31.78。
老喬最好的連續兩年平均也只有31.55。
Obviously, the larger James versus Jordan argument won't be much
of a debate until LeBron picks up some hardware in the postseason.
Nonetheless, I can't emphasize enough what an extraordinary
accomplishment James' past two seasons represent. We've flinched
at comparing current players to Jordan after several previous
"next Jordans" were found wanting. But that has put up a mental
barrier to a declaration that the numbers see as obvious: In terms
of regular-season performance, we're watching the next Jordan.
當然我們都知道,很多鄉民都認為在LBJ拿到那個冠軍戒指前,
把喇叭詹和老喬相比或許沒有意義。不過不論如何,我認為LBJ這兩年
的不凡成就還是值得贊許。畢竟在後老喬時代,人們找了一堆
「下一位喬神」出來。但是從季賽的表現來看,無疑LBJ才是最接近
喬丹的人物。
I'd argue that we can extend that comparison further. When Jordan
was at the same stage of his career as LeBron, the press treated
him almost exactly the same. Like James, he was a wondrous
regular-season performer who had never won anything important and
thus couldn't be compared with the likes of Magic Johnson and
Larry Bird.
我甚至可以從另一個角度切入來做比較。老喬當年在LBJ這個生涯階段時,
受到媒體的批評幾乎如出一輒。就如同現在的喇叭詹,媒體認為老喬只是
個沒得過冠軍戒指的數據魔人,跟魔術強森和大鳥柏德不在同一個天平上。
Looking back, that whole notion seems laughable, if not downright
quaint … yet we're falling in the exact same trap. Jordan,
remember, didn't win a title until his seventh season. As luck
would have it, James is in his seventh season, and his odds of
winning a crown have never looked better. With the Lakers
faltering down the stretch and the Celtics succumbing to age, only
James' nemesis from a year ago -- Orlando -- would rate as an
even-money proposition to stop him from winning the trophy.
當我們往回看,媒體的那些批評顯得可笑。然而我們現在也在做同樣的事。
別忘了老喬在他第七年才拿到冠軍,巧合的是,喇叭詹也正處於第七個球季。
而今年跟往年相比也是他最可能拿冠軍的一年。
尤其湖人似乎陷入低潮,普賽在跟年紀賽跑,除了魔術是目前最有可能的
程咬金。
That part of the James-Jordan comparison won't be settled for
another two months, his regular-season one in a little more than
two weeks.
當然關於冠軍於否的爭論會一直延續到季後賽,不過關於季賽的爭論,
兩個禮拜後就可以見分曉。
James leads the league in scoring, at least for the moment (Kevin
Durant is only 0.2 behind, and if James rests the final couple of
games, Durant will have a number to shoot for, David
Robinson-style, in the season finale). But LeBron is not just
scoring. He's getting his 29.8 points per game with incredibly
high-percentage shots. James' true shooting percentage of 60.4
ranks in the league's top 25, and most of the players ahead of him
are snipers with much smaller offensive roles.
喇叭詹目前在得分榜上領先群倫,至少目前如此(KD只落後0.2分,
如果LBJ最後幾場輕鬆打,KD或許有機會超前,甚至扮演當時大羅
最後一場球的戲碼。)
不過在我看來LBJ不只是得分,他得分的效率超高。他的「真實命中率」
(True shooting %)有60.4%,排在聯盟前25名,而在他前面的選手
大多只是扮演狙擊手,在進攻上的角色遠小於LBJ。
Yet for me, his passing is the most amazing part. In fact, for a
wing player, it's eye-popping: James has cracked the league's top
15 in pure point rating even though he plays small forward.
(Except for James and San Antonio's Manu Ginobili, every player in
the top 40 plays the point).
對我來說,我認為他的傳球技巧才是最高明的。事實上,以一個小前鋒來說,
簡直是驚人!他在控球上的評比(pure point rating)屬於聯盟前15名,
即使他是打小前鋒。(除了LBJ和Manu,其他前40名的選手都是控球後衛)
Or try this one on for size: No forward in league history has ever
averaged more than eight assists per game until this season;
Larry Bird's 7.6 assists per game in 1986-87 came the closest.
James is averaging 8.6, even though he's playing in one of the
slow-paced eras in league annals and averages a relatively modest
39.0 minutes per game. Put him at Bird's pace in 1986-87, and he'd
be averaging a whopping 9.3.
你還不知道有多驚人?那看看這個記錄好了,
在聯盟歷史上沒有一位前鋒的平均助攻超過8過。
大鳥柏德在86-87球季的7.6次助攻是歷來最接近的一次。
而且別忘了LBJ的8.6次助攻還是現在這個年代的籃球步調比較慢的結果。
如果把他放到86-87年那種籃球步調,他的平均助攻將會是9.3次!
The same applies to most of James' numbers. On a per possession
basis, his triple-crown stats of 29.8 points, 7.2 rebounds and 8.6
assists crush Oscar Robertson's triple-double season in 1961-62 …
or Jordan's 32.5-8.0-8.0 season in 1988-89 … or just about any
statistical season in history.
當然同理可證,LBJ的數據放到跟大O的大三元球季相比或是老喬的
88-89球季相比也絲毫不會遜色。(作者意思是如果把籃球進攻步調算進去)
All except one, that is. James' output still trails Jordan's peak
campaign in 1987-88 by a whisker. He has a chance to glide past
him in the final two weeks but, with Cleveland throttling down to
coast into the postseason, probably won't.
當然LBJ還落後Jordan在87-88年的個人數據。或許他有機會,不過
看來騎士最後八場比賽會用來調整準備季後賽,所以機會不大。
Nonetheless, it's a season for the ages -- and his second of the
like in a row. We've held off on comparing James to Jordan for
some good reasons, especially since he hasn't won a title yet. But
at this point, there's nobody else left to whom we can compare
him.
不過不論如何,以個人數據來看,今年絕對值得名留青史。而且是
LBJ連續第二年得到那麼高的PER值。當然我目前只會把LBJ和老喬做
個人數據的比較而已,畢竟喇叭詹還沒有拿到冠軍。
不過說實話,至少目前看來,除了喇叭詹,也沒有人可以拿來和老喬比了。
======================================================================
PER Player Efficiency Rating is my overall rating of a player’s
per-minute statistical production. The league average is 15.00
every season.
PER值代表球員的效率,簡單來說是看每一分鐘球員的貢獻值。
並且以每一個球季全體球員該季的平均為15來做基準比較得出。
TS% True Shooting Percentage calculates what a player’s shooting
percentage would be if we accounted for free throws and
3-pointers. True Shooting Percentage = (Total points x 50) divided
by [(FGA + (FTA x 0.44)]
真實命中率的算法是把罰球和三分球一起考量進去的算法。
公式如下: (全部得分 x 50)除以(總投籃命中數+(罰球命中數 x 0.44))
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※ 編輯: kart 來自: 164.67.139.95 (03/31 06:26)
推 chucloud:推 03/31 06:36
推 kenta10:現在就真的只差一枚冠軍戒指了 03/31 08:22
推 ancientchina:加油!拿到戒指開啟王朝統治吧 03/31 09:17
推 k7117836:今年上一下心衝一發吧 大歐大Z好好調整!! 03/31 09:22
推 shyand:讓騎士迷也揚眉吐氣一番吧!默默忍受有冠軍隊伍嘴臉這麼久@@ 03/31 09:51
推 like1259:樓上 應該說是忍受冠軍隊伍護航軍的嘴臉才對 03/31 09:55
推 yihungsky:推!今年拿一個冠軍戒指吧!! 03/31 10:49
推 aimjvc:推~ 03/31 11:18
推 colorfulyi:今年拿冠軍吧!!!! 03/31 12:38
推 qwerewq:今年一定要拿下總冠軍! 03/31 12:47
推 zasx0929:快拿冠軍~~~ 03/31 14:29
推 Geel:MJ跟LBJ狂洗板...XDDDD 03/31 14:55
推 hung780502:不用跟那些人認真啦! 認真就輸了^__^ 03/31 15:08
推 KobeIchiro:今年一定要揚眉吐氣拿冠軍 接著繼續連霸!!! 03/31 15:14
※ DppisMinZhu:轉錄至看板 NBA 03/31 16:12
→ animalspell:加油吧,克里夫蘭好像等待45年了 03/31 17:06
推 godin073:等不及看季後賽了!!let's go cavaliers~we want champion 03/31 21:36
→ kart:Dpp轉錄要不要問一下先?而且NBA我發了一樣的文阿 = = 04/01 01:36