[外電] 關於絕殺(請把球給RAY或PP)

[SexyCassell (其實我很帥)]

Game Winning Shots



by Roland Beech, 82games.com

http://82games.com/gamewinningshots.htm


此篇文章主要在談「絕殺」，包含：絕殺出手次數、絕殺命中率以及絕殺出手球員。
僅翻譯部分片段如下，對全文有興趣者請至原文連結。

翻譯若有錯誤或不妥，還請大家指正^^~


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Ah yes, when it comes to requests for updated stats on features we've done in
the past, nothing comes close to the clamor for another look at "game winning
shots" in the NBA. The last time we investigated this was way back on 4/13/2006
as part of the Random Stat collection, and Carmelo Anthony came out on top for
the most shots made by the definition we used (see below) as well as doing it
with a wonderful .647 field goal percentage. That is a long time ago though, so
let's see what the current word is!

是的，當我們回憶過往那些偉大時刻的時候，沒有什麼比絕殺更能吸引人們的注意。上一次
我們關於這份歷史統計是在2006年4月13日作出， 當時Carmelo Anthony榮膺絕殺王
—─當然， 評定的方法是我們自己定義的。 不過這也是一個了不起的成就，melo的
絕殺命中率達到64.7%。 不過這是以前的事情了，來看看現在又是什麼情形吧！


First off there's really one main issue -- what exactly do we want to define as
a game winning shot? If we make it too restrictive, as in a real last second
shot at the buzzer, then you are dealing with tiny, tiny sample sizes. So
instead, we proposed the following filter:

首先我們需要面對的問題是： 如何定義絕殺？ 如果太嚴格，只算最後一秒的話，
，那麼很多偉大的進球將被抹殺。所以我們提出以下的計算方法：


Game Winning Shot Opportunity = 24 seconds or less left in the game, team with
the ball is either tied or down by 1 to 2 point.

絕殺機會=比賽剩下時間為24秒或者24秒以下，兩隊打平，或者擁有控球權的球隊落後1~2分
。


Why use this definition?

With 24 seconds or less, then it truly is a "last possession" situation
potentially

With a margin from tied to down 2, the team can take the lead with a made
basket (including 3's)

By excluding a down 3 situation, we don't have the "gimme two point buckets"
that defenses will sometimes yield to the quick bucket/intentional foul
strategy option you often see exercised.


為什麼這樣定義呢？

首先，24秒或者24秒以下的剩餘時間，即使在沒有投籃的情況下，球權可能不會再轉換。

其次，平手，或者落後1-2分，意味著比賽有翻盤的可能。

第三，排除落後3分的情況，(因為)這樣可以投兩分然後犯規，或者領先方戰術犯規等等…
(為避免製造統計上的困難，故排除此種情況。)


The first thing to note is that these types of shots are very difficult on a
league wide basis: a .298 Field Goal percentage doesn't exactly inspire
confidence!

首先，我們要知道，絕殺成功率很低，聯盟平均29.8%.


Part of this is that game winning chances may come with just a couple of
seconds or less remaining in the game from the inbounds. So manufacturing any
shot at all in some cases is to the player's credit. In some cases it can even
be a half court heave!

有時候可能只有幾秒鐘，甚至更少的時間來完成所謂的「絕殺」，所以球員們的信心
經常破表，會過半場就出手，或後場直接投籃。


LeBron James was just 4-19 in our previous look at game winning shots, so in
the ensuing two and a half seasons, he has come up with a very respectable
13-31 (.419) record and just the other day had a pure game winner at the buzzer
to top the Warriors. In addition he has six assists and a healthy number of
free throws earned.

LBJ在06年的記錄是19投4中。但是他這兩個半賽季的表現進步很大，成績是31投13中（
41.9%），而且就在前幾天（1月23號）還絕殺了勇士。除此之外，他還有6次助攻隊友絕殺
，並且十幾次在罰球線上幫助球隊取得勝利。


Vince Carter doesn't get a lot of love from fans for the most part but is
actually #2 in the standings for most game winners over this period.

Vince Carter在多數時候並不特別受到球迷青睞，除了他的扣籃和……絕殺！他在絕
殺榜上排名第二。


Ray Allen is in third overall but also leads in most 3's made under our game
winning defined situation specifics, with eight three pointers. Long live the
NBA's arguably best pure shooter (Ray also currently leads the NBA in Midrange
2pt FG%).

Ray Allen在第三名，不過他投中的三分球是最多的，一共有8個。作為一個(現役)高齡
純射手，他是最出色的，同時他還保持聯盟2分球的命中記錄。


...and then we get to Kobe Bryant. Kobe fans don't like to hear it, but while
their man is #4 in the league in total game winners hit, he holds the top spot
in a less glamorous category: most game winning opportunity missed shots!

......然後才是Kobe，這是科迷不願意看到的，但他們的男人確實在這個排行榜上
位列第四，不過他保持著另外一個第一名：絕殺失敗次數。


(以下補充絕殺失敗次數排行：)

42 - Kobe
35 - Vince Carter
33 - Joe Johnson, LeBron
32 - Crawford
31 - Billups


Now we're not Kobe haters by any means and I will readily give him his due as
one of the best NBA players (note however, I didn't say the best) but he
certainly has an overblown reputation when it comes to the clutch shot: people
remember the ones he hits, but not the ones he misses, and heck you think a 56
FGA to 1 assist ratio might be part of the problem? He does have a better
record in the playoffs though, which we'll get to down below.

我們沒有貶低kobe的意思，我覺得他依然是NBA當中最好的球員之一（注意：是之一)
但是他的絕殺顯然被誇大了：人們只記得他投進的，不記得他沒投進的。而且56次
出手嘗試和1次助攻的數據也似乎說明了些什麼。不過他在季後賽的表現仍然精采。


Carmelo Anthony has slipped from the former top spot, but still a worthy
challenger with the best fg% of any player with at least 10 makes.

Carmelo Anthony的排名有所下滑，不過他仍然是10次以上絕殺選手中，命中率最高的。


Beyond that, you see a lot of familiar names, most with low success rates, and
a lot of players with very low assists.

Paul Pierce is an exception as he stands at the head of the class for 'game
winning assists' with nine, ahead of Nash, Kidd, Billups, and the rest.


以上一長串熟悉的名字當中，大多數絕殺成功率都很低，而球員們很少有助攻絕殺。

但Paul Pierce 就是一個意外了，他助攻絕殺次數最多，甚至領先於Nash, Kidd, Billup
等助攻高手。



#

---------------------------------------------

關於絕殺這檔事情
超賽非常幸運有超過一個以上的進攻適合選擇~

RAY的部分，我沒有記錯的話，RAY來到超賽以後有3次成功絕殺對手
而這三次助攻絕殺全部來自PP

PP的部分，過去他已經拯救塞爾提克太多次了~
最近一次是本賽季在主場絕殺老鷹~

(在此先不談KG，不過事實上KG在灰狼時期絕殺對手的次數也不少~)

RAY和PP的絕殺，決定性的不同在於這兩個人的出手速度和打球特性

RAY的出手比PP快(而且快很多XD)，剩下時間越短越應該給RAY

反之，如果要耗掉進攻時間，則應該給PP，或者可以換到罰球機會
PP的絕殺不需要教練設計繁雜的戰術，簡單的擋人、換防對他就很足夠
但是需要注意他偶爾會有無腦失誤的老症頭......囧 (比如持球過久而失誤......)
不過比起他曾經為這支球隊創造的奇蹟，這毛病就算了吧.......

根據過去的紀錄，PP的絕殺以中距離為主，他的三分絕殺不常見
但RAY卻是以三分絕殺著稱

如果考量到一個完整的戰術(尤其需要三分球的時候)，RAY的執行力也很出色

由PP吸引對手包夾而傳出的助攻絕殺──RAY從來沒有失手過呀呀呀!!!!!


GO GO CELTICS ~~~

啊啊~~~我們有這麼多人選可以絕殺對手也是很奢侈的煩惱呀~~~~~XDDDDD






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--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 220.136.87.150
推 bri         :http://0rz.tw/1b3Yq   參考一下
→ david760615 :說allen是高齡純射手還蠻令人不認同的
推 Ayowaya     :不是高齡 原文是"萬歲"的意思
推 AngeLucifer :PP還在溜馬戰的時候投進追平三分呀XD 還有.........
→ AngeLucifer :誰跟你高齡啦@皿@
推 bri         :是"Long live the King"(吾皇萬歲)這樣的用法
推 Haskell     :我覺得他定義有很大問題  落後三分投進的三分沒算到
→ Haskell     :可落後兩分投進兩分又有算  不單純算是超前情況而已
※ 編輯: SexyCassell     來自: 220.136.87.150       (02/14 00:44)
→ SexyCassell :但是到底萬歲那句要怎麼翻譯才好??? 囧
→ SexyCassell :我本來是以為長青射手 這樣子的意思嗎??? XDDDD
推 tzar        :說印象的話，我對KG的絕殺真的沒有多少印象耶
推 timothy80329:我最近有印象的KG的絕殺是在灰狼的最後一年,囧布還騎
→ timothy80329:到KG身上
推 dodomax     :Allen不只是個純射手吧....
推 hope452162  :突然覺得看到絕殺是幸福的事…
推 wagner      :KG絕殺我看過好幾次
推 fascinated  :KG也有 去youtube找 至少看到兩球game winning shot
推 fantasy411  :穩定度KG可能比較好的樣子