[新聞] Celtics' risk-taking could pay off

[rainingdayz (小雨)]

Celtics' risk-taking could pay off

新聞出處(必填):ESPNBoston.com

作者:Jeremy Lundblad



With one trade, the most tested starting lineup in the NBA broke up.

一個交易
就破壞掉了NBA最具有考驗能力的先發組合(沒有之一)


Kendrick Perkins, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo
started 221 games together for the Boston Celtics, including the postseason,
easily more than any other unit in the NBA over the past four seasons.

Together, they boasted a 128-46 regular-season record and were 30-17 in the
postseason, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.(如表)


Most Common Starting Lineups, Regular Season Since 2007-08
Team         Lineup                                   Games
Celtics      Allen-Garnett-Perkins-Pierce-Rondo       174
Hawks        Bibby-Horford-Johnson-Smith-Williams     159
Thunder      Durant-Green-Krstic-Sefolosha-Westbrook  127
Jazz         Boozer-Brewer-Kirilenko-Okur-Williams     82
Grizzlies    Conley-Gasol-Gay-Mayo-Randolph            73
>>Source: Elias Sports Bureau





Through almost four seasons, they shared the court for 4,349 minutes. In that
time, the Boston Celtics outscored their opponents by 1,102 points.

That era ended Thursday when Perkins was shipped to Oklahoma City, a move
that leaves major questions on defense.

KP走了 防守是最明顯的問題

While Rondo orchestrated the offense and the Big Three provided the scoring,
Perkins garnered accolades for his intangibles: grittiness, intimidation and
defense. It's far more difficult to gauge a player's effectiveness on
defense, an area in which typical stats such as blocks and steals don't
provide a proper measure.

軟豆負責當指揮官
三巨頭穩定供輸
KP則提供無形的資產：韌性 恐嚇 防守!
防守效率有時候不會真的在典型的數據(火鍋 抄截)中顯現出來


So just how valuable was Perkins to the Celtics' defense? Let's focus on the
post, where Perkins did most of his prowling on defense.

他到底多重要?
我們來看看數據吧



In the previous three seasons, the Celtics' post-up defense ranked either
first or second in the NBA in opponent points per possession. This season,
with Perkins missing 43 games, Boston has dipped to fourth.

這一季缺席的43場
讓全隊 post-up 的防守能力下滑到第四~

Celtics' Defense in Post-Up Situations, NBA Ranks in Past 4 Seasons
Season        Opp. PPP        Ranking
2010-11         0.80           4th
2009-10         0.81           2nd
2008-09         0.79           2nd
2007-08         0.72           1st


In that span, Perkins established himself as an elite post defender. He
ranked third in both 2007-08 and 2008-09 in points allowed per play in
post-up situations. Last season, he was sixth.

KP個人方面 前三年依序是 第三 第三 第六
Kendrick Perkins Pts Per Play Allowed Post-Up Situations (min. 150 plays)
Season          PPP         NBA Ranking
2009-10         0.76          6th
2008-09         0.73          3rd
2007-08         0.67          3rd
>> 0.85 in 12 games in 2010-11

It's hard to find any scenario in which the Celtics have improved their post
defense with this move.

As John Hollinger noted Thursday, this move signifies an eye on the Miami
Heat and San Antonio Spurs -- more perimeter-focused offenses.

Yet, the Celtics might still need to contend with elite post players in the
Eastern Conference.

火靈哥說 這是為了因應外圍會帶來比較多麻煩的熱火和馬刺
但是普賽還是需要內線球員應付東區的競爭


According to Synergy Sports data, Dwight Howard has scored 656 points when
posting up this season. That's nearly 200 more than the player with the next
most (LaMarcus Aldridge at 469). Meanwhile, Amare Stoudemire is putting up
1.12 points per post-up play, third best in the NBA behind Nene and Dirk
Nowitzki.

你怎麼能不想到魔獸


Most Points Scored in Post-Up Situations, This Season
Player                     Pts
Dwight Howard              656
LaMarcus Aldridge          469
Brook Lopez                397
Pau Gasol                  380
Zach Randolph              371
>>Source: Synergy Sports


Without Perkins, how will the Celtics manage against teams with traditional
post threats?

沒有KP
普賽要怎麼面對這些內線的威脅?
(安吉~我也想知道阿QQ)


Perkins was the Celtics' best answer for Howard, winning the battle in the
post. Since 2007-08, Howard is averaging 0.89 points per play when posting up
and shooting 48.9 percent. But against Perkins, those numbers plummet to 0.62
PPP and 34.8 field goal percentage. Already one of the best post defenders in
the game, Perkins only gets better against Howard.

KP是對付魔獸最好的答案，句號。

Dwight Howard in Post-Up Situations Since 2007-08
                                   Points Per Play         FG Pct.
Overall                                    0.89              48.9
vs. Perkins                                0.62              34.8
vs. current Boston big men                 0.81              44.4

Compare that to the current post defenders on the Celtics' roster. In that
span, Howard is averaging 0.81 points per play, while hitting 52 of 117 shots
(44.4 percent).

Will this group be able to stop Howard? It's worth noting that he scored only
six points against the Celtics on Christmas Day, a game in which Glen Davis
played almost 40 minutes.

值得一提 聖誕大賽DH只得6分 但BBD打了40分鐘
(Celtics 78 : Magic 86 )

But the concern should extend beyond Howard. Opponents post up on the Celtics
less often than against any other team in the NBA. Will this change without
Perkins looming in the paint?

Nenad Krstic won't make anyone forget Perkins, especially on the boards.

新同學Krstic絕對不會讓任何人忘記KP的，特別是籃板能力


For the past three seasons, Perkins -- not Garnett -- has been the Celtics'
top rebounder. In that span, he has averaged 13.3 rebounds per 48 minutes,
compared to Garnett's 12.8. Meanwhile, Krstic is hauling in only 9.8 rebounds
per 48 minutes this season, which puts him on par with the recently departed
Semih Erden.

事實上 前三季
KP的平均籃板是隊上最多的(高於KG)
Perkins  13.3R / 48 mins
Krstic    9.8R / 48 mins


There were plenty of factors that went into this deal, including Perkins'
impending free-agent status. Injuries created a dire need for depth on the
wing, and Jeff Green should provide that going into the future.

這筆交易牽扯太多因素了
KP的 free-agent
受傷的情形(丹丹)不得不補強
還有Green能夠提供的未來性

(Green是目前唯一值得欣慰的一小點吧)


But for all the positives associated with the trade, there's no way to view
it as a net gain for the Celtics' post defense. That doesn't necessarily
spell doom for Boston, though.

再樂觀也無法弭補失去KP防守端的貢獻
但還沒那麼慘啦~

Keep in mind that the Celtics were 33-10 without Perkins this season, the
best record in the East.

別忘了
沒有KP普賽仍能33-10在東區領先
(可是...那時大小歐還有上幾場 鵝蛋也有補上 丹丹還沒傷...囧?)



In the end, it all comes back to Garnett's defensive presence

到最後
還是要看KG的了(I take 5!)

Over the past four seasons, Perkins was plus-13.0 points per 48 minutes when
on the court with Garnett. But without him, Perkins was minus-2.1 points per
48 minutes.

KP 有KG   +13.0  / 48mins
KP 無KG   -2.1   / 48mins

Now another Boston center gets to feed off KG. While Garnett leads the NBA in
plus/minus per 48 minutes at plus-13.0, Shaquille O'Neal is right behind him
at plus-12.5. Perkins, by contrast, is plus-6.3 through 12 games.

KG的+/- 13.0P / 48mins領先全NBA

KG 有大歐罩 +12.5 / 48mins
KG 有 KP 罩 +6.3  / 48mins (12場)



Shaq is still a defensive force down low. Opponents are shooting just 32.4
percent against him and averaging 0.70 PPP in post-up situations, according
to Synergy.

Even with his 39th birthday coming up March 6, O'Neal is still a far more
dynamic offensive threat than Perkins has ever been. If healthy (a legitimate
if), O'Neal more than capably fills the post on both ends.

大歐就算三月六號就要39歲了(!)
進攻還是比KP好
如果健康的話 攻守兩端都會很有貢獻


Consider the evidence: The Celtics' four main starters are plus-18.2 points
per 48 minutes when joined on the court by O'Neal. In 12 games with Perkins,
that's just plus-13.0.

In fact, the best plus/minus per 48 minutes for those four with Perkins came
in 2007-08, when they were plus-17.7. In other words, the group has been
doing better with Shaq than it ever did with Perkins.

48mins

        大歐 + 四巨頭  +18.2
        KP   + 四巨頭  +13.0
 07~08年KP   + 四巨頭  +17.7

(作者這比數據卻無法反映KP能夠上場的時間
還有軟豆成長的變因等等)


Ultimately, that's the gamble. With the trade, the Celtics are counting on
Shaq to get (and stay) healthy for the stretch run. The Celtics took a risk
by breaking up their core but seem likely benefit in the short term.

The true test might come in the postseason, particularly if Dwight Howard
looms in the paint.


結論，這是場賭博

1.大歐的健康(作者完全沒有提到小歐)

2.季後賽對上DH



同個網頁有個小問卷
What do you think about Celtic's deal sending Kendrick Perkins and
Nate Robertson to OKC for Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic?

Great deal ... the Celtics are now a better team 26%

Terrible ... Danny might have just ruined the team 74%

(total votes: 14,156)

--
                         ◤     ◥   ◢       ◣                              
        傑米，炸掉它吧。  ⊙▁⊙─    ─⊙▂⊙   碰到問題，用C4就對了！       
                      ╰  ∕皿﹨        ◥皿◤  ╯                            
                          ◥█◤◢    ◥  ︶◤                                
            Adam Savage ◤  ︶    ◥◤  ﹨▼∕◥ James Hyneman                
 ＭＹＴＨＢＵＳＴＥＲＳ  ◥             ◤＼◥                    by dajidali 

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) 
◆ From: 122.124.164.218
→ rayensighner:Terrible.
→ rainingdayz :簡單翻 希望版面沒太亂= =
推 rayensighner:哈哈 我只是在做問卷而已～
推 ignisfatuus :KP那寬大的身體對Ray來說也是很重要的 Q~Q
→ rainingdayz :其實我也投terrible一票XD 74%裡面有我~
推 hope452162  :Terrible                   有本事就拿總冠軍打我臉
推 steveparker :大歐是能上多久 而且年紀都那麼大了
推 MK47        :Terrible
推 momofishj   :那個句號翻的也太好._.
→ aringring   :Terrible!!!
推 cmid05      :作者完全沒有提到小歐XDDD
推 jghs121     :不期不待小歐有太多貢獻...只要能分擔上場時間就好
推 PikaRen     :不期不待小歐能分擔上場時間
推 oopday      :不是很想提起小o...
推 hawk920412  :最多先發場的前四名在今年都毀了..＝.＝
推 SL65AMG     :小歐真的很沒貢獻，又貴 ... = =凸
推 hslzh       :大歐再厲害也老了 季後賽一堆金身 會板凳坐到飽
推 bzeronj     :搞不好這樣可以刺激KG 讓他重返顛峰
推 mikazeray   :看到問卷我笑了XD  樓上這樣KG就要更燃燒了.未必好事
推 AbigMouth   :安吉普賽
→ muxiv: 小歐真的很沒貢獻，又貴 https://muxiv.com