[外電] C's 的薪資表與現實主義

[NLchu (Network Layer)]

新聞出處(必填):http://goo.gl/2aPZrq

作者: dangercart

I see a lot of comments in a lot of places about our cap space and the free
agents we could pursue. Those comments are usually followed by the standard
back-and-forth on if the player would fit; if they would fit into the
"Celtics Way" and if they would fit with Rondo or Sully, or into coach
Stevens's system. The problem is that I don't see enough discussion on if
they would fit into our cap space. Which is a problem, because we aren't
going to have any cap space. I mean that... we aren't going to have ANY cap
space.

我在許多地方看到很多評論──關於我們的薪資空間以及可以追求的自由球員，那些評論
通常都是在那些可以適合的球員間來往：如果它們適合C's的風格或是與RR跟Sully搭配、
或是Brad的戰術系統；問題是我看不太到關於適合我們薪資空間的評論，而那卻是個重點
，因為我們並不會擁有任何薪資空間──我的意思是，我們將不會有一丁點的薪資空間。

It's easy to look at the contracts we have next season and do some quick math
and think we could maybe get enough space to make a run at Gordon Hayward.
From there you can make the leap to putting together an offer for Carmelo
Anthony. Hey, maybe he'd take a slight discount if we got Kevin Love first
and... no. Those things are not happening. The moves we make this offseason
will be via the draft and/or via trade. It's extremely unlikely that there
will be any free agents signed for more than $5,305,000.

我們可以很容易地看著薪資表並做點簡單數學，然後說明年也許會有足夠空間去追逐像
黑娃這樣的球員，也許可以跳躍的說提供一個價碼給甜瓜，嘿，也許他會接受些許的降薪
如果我們先得到愛......不，這些事情並不會發生，這個休賽季的動作要嘛是選秀要嘛是
交易，要簽下任何價碼高於$5,305,000的自由球員都是非常不可能的。

Let's do some math (math is fun) to figure out why:

我們來做點算數﹝數學粉好玩滴﹞來看看為什麼：

The salary cap for next season is estimated to be about $62 million dollars.
It won't be exactly that but in the end a few dollars isn't going to matter
so let's take that. We'll also say we're going to have the fifth worst record
in the league and the Nets will send us the 18th pick in the draft.

下賽季的薪資帽粗估會在六千兩百萬美元，當然不是完全精確但實際的零頭也沒甚麼要緊
，所以就先這樣算，並先預測我們將落在第五順位然後籃網將送來第十八順位。

2014 Commitments

2014年休賽季仍有的保障合約

PLAYER            SALARY
---
Rajon Rondo     $12,909,090
Gerald Wallace  $10,105,855
Jeff Green      $9,200,000
Brandon Bass    $6,900,000
Joel Anthony    $3,800,000
Vitor Faverani  $2,090,000
Kelly Olynyk    $2,075,760
Jared Sullinger $1,424,520
---
TOTAL           $44,705,225

That right there is the lowest we can get our salary commitments without
giving away draft picks to get another team to take a player, paying someone
to not play for us and hurting our cap sheet in future, or convincing Joel
Anthony to pull a "Ryan Dempster" and go on sabbatical for unknown reasons.
Now, you may look at that and think "GREAT!" we've got $18 million in cap
space. Unfortunately it's not that easy.

在不簽進任何新秀以及不提供任續約、以及不給付任何在未來會傷害我們薪資空間的情況
下的底限就這樣了，這甚至包括說服JA去執行像Ryan Dempster那樣原因不明的合約跳脫，
現在你也許會說：「太棒了！我們將擁有一千八百萬的薪資空間！」但其實沒這麼簡單。

Roster Cap Holds

輪值球員薪資限制

At the bare minimum, the league makes you fill twelve roster spots on your
cap sheet. We only have eight players in the above list so even if we get rid
of every one of our other assets and obligations, which I'll get to in a
minute, the league would add four "roster holds" of $507k each. That would
drop our theoretical caps space from $17.3M down to $15.3M. People might
throw out the fanciful idea of Melo taking $14M to play in Miami; he's not
taking an $8M/year discount to come to Boston.

最少，聯盟規定最低的球員數量為十二位，就算我們擺脫任何一個資產以及義務，上面也
只有八位球員，而在這邊，聯盟將會加上四個「輪值限制」﹝我不太清楚這邊的翻法﹞，
每個將是$507000，那將會將我們理論上的薪資空間由17.3M降到15.3M，人們也許會幻想
甜瓜接受14M一年去為熱火打球，但他可不會為了C's接受8M的降價。

Free Agent Cap Holds

自由球員薪資限制

To even get to $15.3M in space we'd have to renounce our free agents, too. We
have a big pile of cap holds from long-gone players (I'm looking at you,
Roshown McLeod) that we could renounce with no consequences but it might not
be that easy when it comes to Avery Bradley and Jerryd Bayless. Renouncing a
player means you don't have their Bird Rights and you can't play the
sign-and-trade game with them. If we're opening cap space to use on a bigger
player, it's a good bet renouncing these players means they're gone.

就算有了15.3M的空間，我們仍必須放棄簽進受限球員；我們有一個關於早已離開的球員的
瘡疤﹝我就是在說你，Roshown McLeod﹞﹝這個人在01-02跟C's簽了一筆15M的合約，並且
立刻傷退﹞我們大可乾脆的放棄，但遇到AB以及JB的話這可不是這麼容易；宣布放棄簽約
權代表放棄他們的鳥權，而且你也不能進行先簽後換的操作，如果我們開放薪資空間去追
逐更大的明星，放棄權利會是一個不錯的賭注，這同時也代表讓他們離開。

For Bradley we could always extend a qualifying offer and rescind it if we
want the cap space but if someone else comes in and makes him an offer that
option comes off the table. Any sign-and-trade would be to a team over the
cap (a team under wouldn't need our help) so we'd have to take back salary in
that move, too.

對於AB而言，我們隨時可以給出一份延長合約，並在希望解放空間時宣布撤銷，但如果有
人對他提出報價時這個選項就不存在，任何超過上限的球隊都必須透過先簽後換﹝當然
低於下限的球隊則否﹞，所以我們也必須扣掉這部分的薪資空間。

Basically, getting to even $15.3M in space means letting both our established
shooting guards walk, but so be it.

基本上，擠出15.3M的空間就代表讓我們已確立的兩位SG走人，但就這樣吧。

Non-guaranteed contracts

不保證合約

You may have noticed the table up above doesn't have Phil Pressey or Chris
Johnson. Waiving them only clears us about $700k in cap space because they
get replaced by those roster holds but if we're going to do this, let's go
all out and let them walk.

你也許會注意到上面並不包含小PP以及CJ的合約，釋出這兩位只會空出0.7M的空間，因為
這部分會被上述的輪值限制取代，但我們就這樣幹吧，散散去。

Draft Holds

選秀限制

Now it's going to get difficult. First round draft picks are assigned a cap
hold for the rookie scale amount. A team with the fifth worst record will
have an average cap hold of $3,187,692 (multiply the odds of each possible
draft slot by the scale amount and add them together) and the 18th pick has a
hold of $1,325,600. In order to get rid of those holds we would have to trade
those picks for NOTHING this year. Trading for players just adds their
salaries and trading for different picks adds those holds. We'd have to trade
high picks in this draft for unknown picks in future ones. This isn't
happening. These holds equal about $4.5M so let's cut our theoretical cap
space down to $11.8M, even with letting AB, Bayless, Pressey and Johnson walk
for nothing.

現在開始會變得困難了，第一輪選秀將占去一部份的薪資空間，前五順位平均將花掉$3.1M
的薪資空間，而第十八順位則是約1.3M，為了清出這部分空間我們將無條件的交易掉他們
，如果交易到任何球員或選秀都將占掉相對應的空間，我們必須將高順位選秀權去交易未
來那些未知的選秀；當然這不會發生，所以這大約會占掉4.5M的薪資，所以整體空間來到
11.8M──儘管這是讓AB、JB、CJ、小PP散散去的結果。

That figure is the MOST we could easily get to without just giving away
assets that are clearly ours. You can dump the Nets pick if you want but you
only get to around $13M in that scenario. What are we doing with $11-13M in
cap space? Are we really going to chase after Gordon Hayward if it means
walking away from any hope of brining back AB or playing in a sign-and-trade
and also cutting Johnson and Pressey loose? Maybe you can make an offer in
the $11M range and keep CJ and Phil but, well, why? What does an $11M free
agent do for this team? We've been trying to dump Green and his contract is
"only" for $9M/season. None of the Heatles are coming here and we aren't
getting Melo for anything like what we can open up so why even start down
this path, especially when there are further costs of doing it...

這份估算是在不給出那些明顯是我們自己的資產下所得到的，你可以丟出籃網的十八順位
簽並只得到1.3M的空間，但我們打算拿11-13M的空間去做甚麼？我們真的要去追逐黑娃
這樣的球員嗎？儘管這代表放棄簽回AB或是來個先簽後換的機會？也許可以丟出一個11M的
合約並留下CJ跟小PP，但是，外？一個11M的球員能幹甚麼？我們已經試過交易掉小綠而他
也才9M／一年，沒有一個降薪抱大腿的人﹝原文Heatles我想這樣翻是最貼切= =﹞要過來
，而我們也沒有要得到甜瓜甚麼的，何必走上這條不歸路呢？尤其這樣做會在未來造成
損害......

Trade Exceptions

交易特例

To even get to that $11-13M range we'd have to ditch our trade exceptions. We
currently have three trade exceptions worth about $12.6M in total. These
count against the cap. In order to free up cap space we would have to
renounce them. The Pierce exception expires a few days into free agency but
if we were to use it the player we bring in (Omer Asik is still the most
likely use) would count against the cap and eat up the majority of that
space. The Courtney Lee TPE extends well into next season and would have to
be renounced, too. TPEs are not as big a deal as some people make them out to
be (Bill Simmons) because they usually just expire but they do have some
value and we'd have to give them up.

我懶得翻了= =，反正是說要清出空間就要放棄手中的所有TE，但其實TE也沒啥價值，
對很多人而言那就只是拿來解放薪資空間的而已。

Keith Bogans

That $11-13M also means waiving Keith Bogans. The Cavs traded $6M in waivable
contract named Andrew Bynum to Chicago and got Luol Deng! Now, Deng isn't a
world beater but he's a legit starter on even a very good team. Keith Bogans
is a more flexible version of that Bynum contract. You can package him with
any player, which you can't do with a TPE, or just sell him outright for a
draft pick to a team looking to dump salary. As soon as this season ends his
contract is an actual, valuable asset in the crazy world of the NBA CBA.

那個11-13M的空間同時也代表要釋出Bogans，而騎士隊這季才用Bynum那6M的非保障約去
交易到Loul Deng！當然他不是甚麼舉世無雙的豪傑，但他就算是在非常好的球隊也是個
合格先發，Bogans對比Bynum的合約更有彈性，你可以把他跟任何球員打包，或是單純把
他拿去跟任何一個想清空間的球隊換簽，一但這季他的合約到期，這將是在新版CBA下一個
非常有價值的資產。

The MLE and BAE

中產條約與雙年特例

A team that goes under the cap for even a minute loses the Mid-level
Exception (MLE) and Bi-annual Exception (BAE). Instead they get the smaller
Room Mid-level (RME) if they end up going back above the salary cap. That's a
trade-off of about $5M in cap flexibility

低於薪資帽的球隊也將失去這兩個條款，取而代之的則是RME﹝小中產﹞，如果重新超過
上限，將可用交易帶來大約5M的薪資彈性。

TL;DR

給直接END的您：

To re-cap, for the Celtics to make even enough cap space to make an offer to
just Gordon Hayward (forget the guys that even matter in this league) that
Utah probably wouldn't match we'd have to:

重新複習一下，，如果C's為了清出足夠的薪資空間去對黑娃報價，我們必須：

Give up our rights to Avery Bradley, including the chance to sign-and-trade
him

放棄AB，包括先簽後換的權力。

Give up our rights to Jerryd Bayless

放走貝勒爺。

Give up our trade exceptions for Paul Pierce, Courtney Lee, and the tiny one
for Fab Melo

放棄三個TE。

Give up the flexible trade chip that is Keith Bogans's super-expiring contract

放棄Bogans的無敵到期合約。

Convert the MLE ($5.305M) plus the BAE ($2.077M) into just the RME (2.732M)

將中產以及雙年條款轉換為小中產。

Possibly waive Phil Pressey and Chris Johnson

放棄小PP與CJ。

Possibly sell the Nets pick for some future pick(s)

可能賣出18順位簽。

And then we'd have to pay that player on a long-term contract and figure out
a way to fill in the rest of the roster with just the RME and minimum
contracts to work with.

而後我們要開出一張長約給我們追逐的自由球員，然後想辦法用僅剩的資源去填滿名單。

This would be a ridiculous thing to do. It makes much more sense to
intentionally stay above the cap. We would maintain the flexibility of our
useful contracts (AB's RFA and Bogans waivable), our TPEs and our contract
exceptions. Playing in the trade market makes much, much, MUCH more sense
than even thinking about free agency, even after making a big trade.

這將是一件荒妙的事，刻意的去逼近上限將是更合理的選擇，我們將保留手中那皆有彈性
的合約、以及各種特例，在交易市場中動作將比追逐自由市場更加更加的合理──儘管在
做出了一筆巨大的交易之後。

And that's why we're going to trade Sullinger, Bass, Bogans and picks for
Kevin Love then take Omer Asik into our TPE, not worry about Melo or Hayward
and go win the Atlantic Division next season before pushing on for greater
things in 2016 when cap space (and more good draft picks) are both really in
play. It's that or just make our pick and roll forward as-is.

而這也是為什麼我們將交易Sully、Bass、Bogans以及選秀權去換來Love﹝是作者在YY不是
我﹞然後用TPE去換來Asik﹝才不要﹞，別再去想甜瓜或黑娃了，然後直接贏下分組冠軍
﹝算了吧﹞，並在2016年做出更偉大的事蹟──那時將有著真正的薪資空間以及一堆選秀
權，要嘛這樣不然就是乖乖選秀並往前邁進吧！

======


心得：本來沒有要翻這篇，現在想想讓大家知道球隊薪資現況也好；總而言之光是要同時
續約AB、JB、KH以及簽下新秀並保留小PP跟CJ就已經很吃緊了，現在處於籌碼一堆但不易
操縱的階段，就讓我們期待偉大的交易吧！

--
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◆ From: 111.185.51.107
推 dixongossip :好文推，但是我還是比較在意可不可以拿到好籤
推 gaiaesque   :推..下一季要馬上好不容易
推 Rover       :推殘酷的現實...話說回來，CH是哪位？
→ Rover       :該不會是指Kris Humphries吧？
我腦袋想著念起來一樣就打出來了XDDD
※ 編輯: NLchu           來自: 111.185.51.107       (03/16 09:59)
推 TT123       :Wyc已經開口說會夏天會有動作了~~
推 lanver1220  :依照這篇，感覺老闆開口有動作 是不在乎花大錢了?
推 TT123       :也可能是想騙一下買季票的人...
推 lalascott   :重建之路是很漫長的 為何下季名單沒有PP^^
推 Bird        :加油吧~後輩們
推 auron4041   :要黑蛙也要考慮怎麼處理小綠和G蛙