[外電] 滿冠或三振？

[Huro (休洛)]

Grand slam or strike out? - Where does everyone go
http://goo.gl/iRhM

I've been a strong proponent of the theory that LeBron will leave the
Cavaliers even if he doesn't go to Chicago.   However, with the information
that LeBron will take a few days to decide, I have to think that he's
returning to Cleveland now.

In general, I'll give LeBron some credit for not becoming a media whore with
all this.  He put himself in a position where he's not doing interviews,
tweeting away, or doing anything else.   Not that there's anything wrong with
becoming a media spectacle, but for those accusing James of being an
attention whore, he's handled this process trying to limit attention as much
as possible.

The thing is, if he was going to leave Cleveland then I think he'd rip the
bandaid off last night or this morning.   The longer it takes him to make the
decision, the more likely it is he returns to Cleveland.   The less likely it
is he makes the hometown fans sit and stew about it only to disappoint him.
 The more likely all the long emotional ties play a factor and the basketball
part becomes less important.

I don't think it's a lock that he stays, and if he leaves, I believe he
leaves for Chicago, but I think the odds drop a little bit with each day the
decision is delayed.

As for Wade, it really depends whether or not he's making a basketball
decision, a financial decision or a family decision.   Two of those three
favor Chicago, but the third is money, and money almost always wins.

Think about it, whomever he plays with in Miami, he could also play with in
Chicago except that he has to compare roughly 10 million in cap room +
Michael Beasley and Mario Chalmers to Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Loul Deng,
Taj Gibson, and James Johnson.   The Bulls destroy in a "winning" perspective.

If Wade really wants to win again, can the Heat actually do it with him + one
max FA?   Not really to be honest.

Still money almost always wins. Thus, I still think he's going back to Miami.
  It's hard for me to imagine Dwyane Wade giving up the 30 million extra
money from Miami given his age and injury-proneness.

However, unlike LeBron, the longer the process plays out, the more likely
Wade is to leave Miami in my opinion.   If Miami isn't able to secure enough
of a commitment from any other free agents out there to make Wade feel they
at least have some chance, then he may start seriously considering the Bulls.

For Wade, the increased marketing opportunities may actually make up a lot of
that money for him, and his odds of winning another title in Chicago are far
greater than Miami, another title might push him back into a mega-marketing
superstar as well.

I'm not going to speculate much on the custody battle as I'm not a lawyer,
and I don't want to invade his personal life much, but short story is that
from a "kids" perspective that being in Chicago almost certainly helps his
case to gain full custody or a greater share of split custody.

As for Bosh the latest rumors are that he's going to Houston though I'm not
sure I buy into it.   Toronto may make some noise about not wanting a S&T,
but ultimately, it's pretty hard to see them rejecting one vs letting Bosh
leave for nothing.    Though, they may be able to force Bosh's hand enough to
convince him not to go to Houston since Bosh has no threat to go there
without Toronto's help.

Bosh is somewhat of a king pin to all of this as well, because if Bosh does
go to Houston then I think it makes the basketball situation really
unpalatable for Wade in MIami.   Miami is coming back with Boozer, 10 million
worth of role players, Beasley and Chalmers?   How is that really better than
what they've had?

However, if Toronto plays hard ball enough to force Bosh away from Houston,
then Miami and Wade might be a logical destination.   However, for Bosh,
Chicago makes a ton more sense than Miami to team up with Wade.   Better
marketing opportunities, not nearly so entrenched as the #2 guy (as Wade will
own Miami, but in Chicago it's a "big 3"), and he'll get the same money
either way.

He could also opt for Chicago without Wade given that Chicago with him
probably stands the same odds of winning as Miami with him, Wade, and no one.
  He'd also be "the man" in Chicago or at least have 50/50 billing with Rose,
have a longer window to win, and have far better marketing opportunities.

The real question is, if he's attached to Wade at the hip, then even though
Chicago is better for both as a basketball choice, and it's better for both
from a marketing perspective, can he really convince Wade to leave Miami?
How deep does the friendship go, that he joins Wade in a worse situation?

If Wade, Bosh, and their agent are talking then both Bosh and the agent
should heavily push Chicago with only Wade pushing Miami.

As for the minor players (and wow it's a crazy year when you've got 4
all-stars viewed as the minor players)

Joe Johnson is getting tired of waiting around, so he appears ready to just
accept the Hawks deal.  Amare to the Knicks seems like it's going to happen
as well though he has meetings scheduled with the Bulls and Nets.   Boozer is
hanging out probably waiting to see which team is left needing a max guy and
has the best roster.  David Lee interviewed with the Timberwolves after the
Bulls, so clearly he's in play if a better team wants him.

Bucher tweeted last night that the Bulls could get shut out:

LeBron -> Cleveland
Wade + Boozer -> Miami
Amare -> NY
Johnson -> Atlanta
Bosh -> Houston

I don't know if I really see that or not.   Is Boozer really enough to get
Wade excited about winning in Miami.   It's very hard for me to envision Wade
thinking that's enough to have a legitimate chance to win with what else they
have.  However, throw Boozer and Wade in Chicago, and they have a very
legitimate chance to win.

So the readers digest version of my current best guesses:
LeBron:  Bulls or Cavs
Wade: Bulls or Heat
Bosh: Bulls, Heat, Rockets, will he walk from 6th year?  Will he let Toronto
control his destination?
Amare: Knicks
Johnson: Hawks
Boozer/Lee: Whomever is left with the most money and best roster

------------------------------------

若是像文中 Bucher 一說：

LeBron -> Cleveland
Wade + Boozer -> Miami
Amare -> NY
Johnson -> Atlanta
Bosh -> Houston

那就完完全全被三振了。
會那麼倒霉嗎？

那我們繼續看下去... @@


--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) 
◆ From: 122.125.93.158
推 smallhowchou:被三振就搞笑了....
推 stevejo:如果真的變成這樣,那就真的衰到爆了...不要重演2000年的歷
→ stevejo:史阿...
推 pro:頂多S咖沒抓到 不至於空手而回 還有A咖 像Boozer Lee...之流
→ pro:加上本來公牛的兩核心 還ok的啦 倒是熱火也失去Wade會最慘吧
→ pro:他們失去Wade 相信Bosh也不會想去 才是完全被三振 徹底失敗
推 mikechang829:至少抓個Boozer吧!
推 bullsgogo:出個兩千萬應該抓的到布瑟或阿罵吧
推 Amilous:這兩隻一定都頂薪 但起薪也只能簽16xx萬
推 cherngru:是03梯那幾隻頂薪的起薪只能16xx萬吧~
→ cherngru:布瑟或阿罵進聯盟的時間比較早，應該更多吧??@@
推 Amilous:要10+年資歷才有1892.9萬 7~9年都1622.4萬
推 jasonp92:基本上現在是球員在擔心自己要跟哪隊簽約而不是球團
→ jasonp92:WADE在得不到BOSH的承諾之下是不會回熱火的
→ jasonp92:因為沒BOSH他回熱火等於是比去年更慘
→ jasonp92:想想擁有三巨頭的CELTIC'S都跟年輕公牛打的那麼慘烈
→ jasonp92:更何況是陣容沒去年好的騎士 熱火
推 kingsky1229:其實有時候仔細想想,陣容已經有了雙核心的兩人
→ kingsky1229:真的有必要再跑去搶大牌嗎?
→ kingsky1229:以她們兩個為核心在去尋找適合的副手跟板凳
→ kingsky1229:應該會比較實際點吧?
推 bullsgogo:玫瑰方舟還要磨練幾年 如果要變冠軍熱門隊 挖s咖比較快