[情報] Chicago Cubs Top 20 Prospects for 2015

[Zamned (扎姆德)]

1) Kris Bryant, 3B, Grade A: Age 22, monstrous season in Double-A/Triple-A,
.325/.438/.661 with 43 homers, 86 walks, 162 strikeouts in 492 at-bats. Bat
could be something like Jeff Bagwell and he’s not a bad third baseman either.
I think he’s the best prospect in baseball.

2) Addison Russell, SS, Grade A: Age 20, thunder in the bat (.295/.350/.508
with 13 homers in 68 games) and he can play shortstop, at least in the short
and medium runs. Main concern is staying healthy.

3) Jorge Soler, OF, Grade A: Age 22, hit .340/.432/.700 in 62 minor league
games and .292/.330/.573 in 24 major league games. That’s not a fluke, the bat
is legitimately that good. Like Russell, the main concern is propensity to
injury. You can make a case to rank Soler ahead of Russell since he’s more
proven at higher levels, but Russell’s youth and positional premium move him
slightly ahead for me.

With Bryant, Russell, and Soler the Cubs have three of the Top Ten prospects in 
baseball. 

4) Kyle Schwarber, C-OF, Grade A-: Borderline A. Age 21, hit .344/.428/.634 in
his first 72 professional games. This is a Grade A bat, only question here is
defense. I think he has the tools to be an okay defender, though there is some
risk that catching focus could hamper hitting development.

5) C.J. Edwards, RHP, Grade B+: Age 23, posted 2.44 ERA with 46/21 K/BB in 48
innings in Double-A when not struggling with shoulder injury. Healthy at the
end of the year, upside of a number two or strong number three starter if the
durability is there.

6) Albert Almora, OF, Grade B+: Borderline B. Age 20, developed into an
excellent defensive outfielder but bat appears stagnant, hit .283/.306/.406 in
High-A but just .234/.250/.355 in Double-A. Still very young, draws praise for
instincts, lots of time for the hitting to come around.

7) Pierce Johnson, RHP, Grade B: Age 23, 2.55 ERA with 91/54 K/BB in 92 innings
in Double-A, just 60 hits. Command goes wobbly at times but looks like a
classic number three starter when everything is on. If the walks come down,
should get a trial in 2015.

8) Billy McKinney, OF, Grade B: Borderline B-: Age 20, hit .241/.330/.400 in
the California League before trade with Oakland, then .301/.390/.432 in more
difficult Florida State League after the trade. Doesn’t have the tools of the
guys ahead of him but instincts draw consistent praise and he has a long track
record of impressing scouts and coaches with his approach.

9) Duane Underwood, RHP, Grade B-: Age 20, posted 2.50 ERA with 84/36 K/BB in
101 innings in Low-A, 85 hits. Can get into mid-90s, making progress with
curveball and change-up, another guy who can be a number three starter with
good health and typical development.

10) Jen-Ho Tseng, RHP, Grade B-: Age 20, 2.40 ERA with 85/15 K/BB in 105
innings in Low-A, 76 hits. Very successful teammate of Underwood and more
polished, though stuff doesn’t project as well at higher levels and his body
is mature. He still looks to me like a prospect that any team would love to
have.

11) Gleyber Torres, SS, Grade B-: Age 17, big-budget signee out of Venezuela in
2013, hit .279/.372/.377 at age 17 in rookie ball then tore up short-season
Boise for a week (.393/.469/.786). Tiny sample of seven games at Boise, but
still. . .he was just 17 and was facing college players. Solid tools that play
way above average due to instincts and work ethic. You can make a case as high
as nine and he can be in Top Three a year from now.

12) Carson Sands, LHP, Grade B-: Age 19, fourth-round pick but a second-round
talent who fell a little due to signability concerns, looked good in rookie
ball (1.89 ERA, 20/7 K/BB in 19 innings) and has number three starter upside
with potential for three big league pitches.

13) Dan Vogelbach, 1B, Grade B-: Age 21, hit .268/.357/.429 with 16 homers, 66
walks in 482 at-bats in High-A, very impressive production for power-difficult
Florida State League. I’m quite confident in his bat but he’s a born DH who
has to work hard to stay lower than 260 pounds. Not sure how he fits in Chicago
other than trade bait.

14) Eloy Jimenez, OF, Grade C+: HIGH CEILING ALERT: Just turned 18 but played
season at 17, hit .227/.268/.367 in rookie ball which was considered very
disappointing. However, scouting reports on his tools remain enthusiastic and
the Cubs will be very patient given the $2,800,000 they invested in him last
year.

I am confident in the ranking of slots 1 through 14. From 15 on, these players
are interchangeable Grade C+ types who could be ranked in about a hundred
different ways. I have highlighted the ones I find most interesting for various
reasons.

15) Victor Caratini, C, Grade C+: Age 21, stolen from the Braves in summer
trade, shows excellent strike zone judgment and is a solid defender. Lack of
home run power keeps him from higher ranking but he’s very interesting.

16) Corey Black, RHP, Grade C+: Age 23, posted 3.47 ERA with 119/71 K/BB in 124
innings in Double-A. Acquired from Yankees in 2013 for Alfonso Soriano. Stuff
can be explosive, but command still work-in-progress. Very athletic.

17) Armando Rivero, RHP, Grade C+: Age 26, Cuban defector, thrived in high
minors (1.56 ERA, 54/16 K/BB in 35 innings in Double-A, 2.97 ERA with 46/12
K/BB in 30 innings in Triple-A) and ready for big league trial. Another hard
thrower with some command wobbles but considerable bullpen upside.

18) Jake Stinnett, RHP, Grade C+: Age 22, second round pick from University of
Maryland is just getting started, college senior but didn’t pitch full time
until 2013 so his arm is fresh in mileage terms. Change-up needs work but
fastball/slider combination are impressive, fanned 132 in 118 college innings
with just 85 hits, 30 walks, 2.67 ERA.

19) Mark Zagunis, C-OF, Grade C+: Age 21, third round pick from Virginia Tech,
hit .288/.420/.420 with 16 steals in first 57 pro games with 42 walks, 42
strikeouts. Exceptional strike zone judgment and on-base abilities with lots of
speed, some gap power, defensive versatility.

20) Jeferson Mejia, RHP, Grade C+: Age 20, 2.47 ERA with 45/17 K/BB in 40
innings in rookie ball, 30 hits, good reviews for mid-90s heat, promising
breaking ball, projectable 6-7, 195 pound body. I think he is a terrific
breakthrough candidate.

OTHER GRADE C+: Most of these guys could slot in the 15-20 range. Gioskar
Amaya, 2B-C; Jeffrey Baez, OF; Dallas Beeler, RHP; Paul Blackburn, RHP; Jeimer
Candelario, 3B; Dylan Cease, RHP; Jonathan Martinez, RHP; Justin Steele, LHP,
Rob Zastrynzny, LHP.

OTHERS: Charcer Burks, OF; Trevor Clifton, RHP; Rashad Crawford, OF; Shawon
Dunston Jr, OF; Jake Hannemann, OF; Marco Hernandez, SS; Eric Jokisch, LHP;
Rafael Lopez, C; Kevonte Mitchell, OF; James Norwood, RHP; Juan Carlos
Paniagua, RHP; Starling Peralta, RHP; Bijan Rademacher, OF; Donn Roach, RHP;
Matt Szczur, OF; Daury Torres, RHP; Christian Villanueva, 3B


The Cubs probably have the best farm system in baseball. I’m only saying
"probably" because I haven’t studied every organization in detail yet, but if
they aren’t number one they’d be number two.

It all starts on the hitting side: Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, and Jorge
Soler are a special trio and Kyle Schwarber isn’t far behind them. This
menacing quartet illustrates in microcosm how the Cubs have built their depth
so quickly: with a combination of astute use of early draft picks (Bryant,
Schwarber), trades (Russell), and aggressive mining of the international market
(Soler).

Almora and McKinney provide additional depth for the outfield. If Gleyber
Torres and Eloy Jimenez develop properly, both could leap to the top of the
list and replace Bryant and Soler, who will graduate to the majors in 2015
(barring disaster). The thing is, even if there IS a disaster of some kind,
there is a large group of potential role players backing up the star talents.
The Cubs have shown the ability to snare both college bats with sabermetric
chops and more traditional toolsy types.


getting better. C.J. Edwards and Pierce Johnson could see the majors this year
as rotation options. Corey Black could also get a trial if his command is up to
it. Armando Rivero has a top bullpen arm. Dallas Beeler and Eric Jokisch don’t
excite scouts with their stuff but both are proven Triple-A command artists
could provide some surprisingly effective innings while the livelier arms
develop at lower levels.

Bottom line: the Cubs have a stellar offensive group at the top and lots of
depth behind them. The pitching situation is improving steadily, and the front
office has shown the ability to find talent in the draft, the trade market, and
the international scene. They don’t just dump money on problems: they allocate
well too.


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→ Zamned: Jason Hammel不知會簽幾年  我們的四五號先發人太多
→ Zamned: 多屯一點是好事  但是不能排除交易投手出去
→ Zamned: Jon Lester如果簽下來  我們會開始物色自由球員組成一支
→ Zamned: 有競爭力的solid球隊。David Ross、左打有選球的功能性
→ Zamned: 球員、左手牛等等
→ Zamned: 搭配小熊的新秀 如果這些新秀能打出Bill James推估成績的
→ Zamned: 八折。那我們進季後賽不是夢
→ Zamned: (只是Bill James每年都很""樂觀"")
→ Zamned: 希望簽下Jason Hammel不是plan B，而是簽下Jon Lester的
→ Zamned: 後續動作
※ 編輯: Zamned (61.230.90.28), 12/08/2014 15:13:19
推 max4582106: 請問一下Z大，Jon Lester假如簽下的話，後續動作就是
→ max4582106: 補捕手位置和其他棒子嗎，還是也會補一些牛棚？
推 BHviolin88: 曾仁和排的好前面，讚!!
→ BHviolin88: 三大巨投簽一個就很棒了，明年還有許多FA，現在也可
→ BHviolin88: 交易
推 finalbrian: 三隻沒搶到抗癌 也不會出手其他隻了吧?很坑阿
推 shawshien: 後段輪值有些可交易或到牛棚
→ shawshien: 2-5: Arrieta Hammel Hendricks 小木頭
→ shawshien: 缺一個Ace
推 shawshien: Rizzo meets Sosa http://goo.gl/IbCHqb
推 fountainNess: Z大，如果蛇蛇交易Montero來熊熊，交易會長怎樣
推 fountainNess: 應該只能拿到低等農作物，但我怎麼樣都覺得蛇蛇需要
→ fountainNess: 一個明年能先發的C
推 seeyou1002: 有啊 先讓Tuffy打 然後拉O'Brian上來被rush到沒信心
→ fountainNess: seeyou大這樣不行啦XDDDD
推 seeyou1002: 基本上這交易成的話就很單純是魯蛇的salary dump
→ seeyou1002: 補救方案大概是把Castillo一起盤過來 然後吃一點Miggy
→ seeyou1002: 的薪水 至於投手新秀八成就沒了
→ fountainNess: Rosenthal說蛇會拿投手
→ Zamned: 可能會出威卡加小聯盟投手去換
→ Zamned: 不過這個交易的前提 國外說法是有簽到Lester
推 csy1911: 據說是兩位1A的投手，曾仁和？！
→ Zamned: A的先發投手2支？
推 fountainNess: 據說不會動到40人名單的…
→ fountainNess: 沒說先發，只說A的投手
→ Zamned: A的不會在40人名單 這種低層級的 不拿先發就傻了
→ Zamned: Jefferson Mejia, Jonathan Martinez, Daury Torrez？？
→ Zamned: 還是曾小弟，Underwood, Jefferson Mejia?
→ Zamned: Mejia重複兩次><
→ Zamned: 這裡可說是小熊農場投手的根  不知會損失多少