作者madboy (歡樂牛棚在躲人)
看板Dodgers
標題Re: [交易] Dodgers Acquire Hanley Ramirez & Randy
時間Wed Jul 25 23:41:16 2012
實在懶得貼出來
不過因為一堆人啥都不看也無法自行思考就說沒有賠
就簡單寫一下...
躲人出
Eo 只列出pre-arb, 因Eo目前只是5th SP, 不見得值得給他arb
2012 值 0.5WAR (剩1/3球季)
2013 1.5WAR
2014 1.5WAR
2012 $WAR參數5.5
2013 6
2014 6.5
Eo 值 0.5 * 5.5 + 1.5 * 6 + 1.5 * 6.5 = 21.5M
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RHRP Scott McGough
Sickels 2012 Grade C (others), 22歲
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/12/5/2612837/
los-angeles-dodgers-top-20-prospects-for-2012
查表
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/7/20/950254/which-is-better-compensation
值2.1M
不過那是2009~2010左右的物價
當時$WAR參數約在4.5
換算現在$WAR參數5.5
差不多應值2.5M
=============================================
=============================================
馬大魚出
LHRP Randy Choate
fangraphs ZiPS (R)剩下球擊成績3.35FIP 14IP
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=813&position=P
得省下 (3.35 - 4.5)*14/9 = 1.79分
就算0.2WAR好了
今年Choate剩下薪水 1.5M/3 (剩1/3球季) = 0.5M
Choate FA前值 1.1M - 0.5M = 0.6M
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cancer Hanley Ramirez
bb-ref
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ramirha01.shtml
fangraphs
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8001&position=SS
bb-ref的rWAR近兩年只給他0WAR & 0.4WAR
fangraphs的fWAR也只給1.3WAR & 1.4WAR
考量他去年受傷
未來全年拿個2WAR不為過吧
2012 0.7WAR (剩1/3球季)
2013 2WAR
2014 2WAR
2012 $WAR參數5.5
2013 6
2014 6.5
Hanley 值 0.7 * 5.5 + 2 * 6 + 2 * 6.5 = 28.85M
不過他剩下薪水
2012 15M/3 (剩1/3球季) = 5M
2013 15.5M
2014 16M
共 36.5M
故Hanley實值 28.85M - 36.5M = -7.65M
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summary
=============================================
=============================================
躲人出
Eo 21.5M
Grade C RHRP Scott McGough 2.5M
24M
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馬大魚出
LHRP Randy Choate 0.6M
Hanley -7.65M
-7.05M
=============================================
you do the math
thanks
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◆ From: 173.254.219.203
推 zehow:老闆現在就是不怕花錢阿 換來的2個人對目前球隊的幫助比較 07/25 23:45
推 Rioss:你有當GM的潛力:p 07/25 23:45
→ zehow:大 那就夠了~ 07/25 23:45
→ madboy:說過...沒電腦算線性函數...就將究一點吧 07/25 23:48
推 lunway79:m大要不要去應徵一下道奇GM?說不定可以幹掉顆顆提 07/25 23:49
推 Rioss:呵~Billy Beane應該把你找當助理(誤) 07/25 23:49
→ madboy:好啦...說一聲我藏了一手...有發現請ask 07/25 23:50
→ madboy:(給個提示這手對躲人有利) 07/25 23:51
推 Sheffield3:@lunway79 說不定可以幹掉笨gm, 你確定這是稱讚..XDD？ 07/26 00:11
→ madboy:BTW, 還有一個問題是"Two Trips"不曉得罩不罩的住這cancer 07/26 00:36
推 lunway79:別曲解我的意思>"<，不過對於此交易我還是保持觀望態度~ 07/26 00:39
→ madboy:don't mind...我想Sheff3只是在開玩笑... 07/26 23:03