Re: [空想] 如果第二次世界大戰日本偷襲的是蘇聯

[Tukhachevsky (蘇軍第一副總參謀長)]

※ 引述《krisman (kris)》之銘言：
: 俄國戰敗的前提:1.日本不打中國2.德日1941年合攻俄國3.日本不發動太平洋戰爭
: 這樣俄國可能會戰敗

那你1941年的下半年，隨時都會被英國宣戰，英國人進來了就等於美國人進來了。


: 日本攻俄國遠東地區,包括海參威,讓俄國陷入兩面作戰,使德國在歐戰勝出
: 其實攻海參威是很有用的,以下是重要數據資料:
  ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
你打算照成俄軍多少傷亡?同時，你自己打算接受多少傷亡?

1941年俄軍總損失約4473820人次(包括永久損失2718830人次)
俄軍在全年度損失的裝備:輕兵器約580萬支，10萬門各式火炮迫擊砲
20500輛的各式戰車，17900架飛機，近16萬輛的各種車輛。

不過對你很不幸的是，紅軍終究挺了過來，並且在十二月展開了第一次的全線反攻。

假定遠東戰場的人員傷亡與物資損失間的比值接近歐俄的各戰場:
你如果能打到紅軍剩下約300萬支的輕兵器，不到五萬門的各式火炮迫擊砲與不到5000輛
戰車，那紅軍的確有可能會暫時失去作戰能力。

不過，這等於是在遠東地區，日軍要造成約70~80萬的俄軍死傷，換言之就是1941年的
遠東紅軍等於要死傷超過一半(考量可能得到的補充後的數字。)

日軍連打器械不全的中國人都無法在半年內造成這種傷亡了，打等級高好幾倍的俄國人
想要造成這種戰果? 打電動比較快。
(要打到紅軍裝備與人員同時的大量損失，還必須打大量的合圍戰役，日本人先證明能夠
 消滅一個基輔單位的紅軍再來說嘴。德國人有古德林的閃擊戰理論與曼斯坦的鎌割計畫
 俄國人有圖哈切夫斯基元帥等人的大縱深作戰理論。日本人有啥? 石原莞爾拿到歐洲去，
 啥都不是，更別提其他的人了。)

至於日軍要承擔多少傷亡?依諾蒙汗了話，日本人最好也不過大約1.5:1的交換比，那就是
約50萬人，而50萬人等於50個師團的戰兵全部打光。日本人先證明一下日本人能夠承受
這等損失再來說。

就算給你達成這種戰果，或者把俄國人趕出海蔘威好了，日本人就能幫助德國人多少?

1941年蘇聯丟掉了大批領土，其中德國控制區的戰前人口在蘇聯總人口的45%，其中2/3是
農業人口，另外還有超過300萬的工人；雖然一些人口撤離到後方去，但是俄國在42年
還是只剩下1.3億人，其中可徵召的壯丁估計只剩下不到3500萬人。(連已經在軍隊中的)

不過即使如此，在史達林的政策下，紅軍在1942/5還是膨脹到了1000萬人，其中對德的相
關單位有約590萬人左右，同時在內陸還有大量部隊正在組建:
第一預備軍團在Tula組建，轄7個師，這就是後來的第64軍團(再後來的第7近衛軍團)
第二          Vologda     6            後來的第1近衛軍團
  三          Tambov      6                    60軍團
  四          Kalinin     5~7(隨時間點而變)    9.38.40.60等軍團的各一部份
  五     Novo Anneski     6                    63軍團
  六       Stalingrad     7             後來頂了在卡爾可夫被重創的第6軍團的番號
  七       Stalingrad     7(折算結果)          62軍團(這個不認識就別出來現寶)
  八          Saratov     5                    66軍團(再後來的第5近衛軍團)
  九            Gorki     5~9(隨時間點而變)    主力成了24軍團，其他分散了
  十          Ivanovo     6                  第5衝擊軍團

這些軍團有的很有名，有的在關鍵時刻頂住了德國人，連同其他分散到各現有軍團的
各新編師，俄國人的重量直接壓倒了德國人。

海蔘威與其週圍是有住5000萬人嗎?還是加上了北庫頁島、外蒙與唐努烏梁海與遠東全境
後有5000萬人?既然都沒有，俄軍的人力就沒有問題。

: http://www.o5m6.de/Routes.html
:    租借法案貨物比例(%)(運輸重量)
:       波斯灣   海參崴  莫曼斯克   黑海    極地
: 1941    3.7    53.6     42.7      0.0     0.0
: 1942   28.8    29.9     38.7      0.0     2.6
: 1943   33.5    44.8     14.2      0.0     2.5
: 1944   28.8    45.8     22.4      0.0     2.0
: 1945    1.2    56.6     19.8     18.5     3.9
: 海參威在1941年佔了過半的貨物比率,其他幾年也佔了極高的比率
  ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

那一點都不重要，最高月運量(除1945/5)是30萬噸，1940年代的廣州港就有這種運量了。
另外你好像是看不懂網頁上說的是什麼:

從開戰到1942/6為止，從遠東地區給了16310噸的金屬，4158噸的化學品，156390噸的石油
製品，16151噸的機械產品，178937噸的食物與3308噸的其他物資。

這很多嗎? 我們來看一下蘇聯在1941~1942年的物資產量
其中液體燃料(最主要是石油)生產了5500萬噸，29萬噸以上的各種金屬，與約40000台的
機床，食物的方面約是12000萬噸左右

不到1%的石油，5%多一點的金屬，以及剛過千分之一的食物，這個叫作重要?這個不重要。

很明顯的，你看不懂租借物資重要的是什麼。你也看不懂那些租借物資必要時可以放棄，
好讓真正重要的物資有港口運量可以下載。


: ---------------------------------------------------------------
: 作戰不只看表面的軍力而已,軍力背後要有充實的國力作為支撐,GDP是國力的重要指標

的的確確，1941年德國需要的不是日本助陣，而是更強大的後勤能量:
一個月之內換好主要鐵路幹線的後勤能量，以及再多約10萬輛的軍卡。

不過這些東西大概只有美國才能給，其他國家都辦不到。


:                單位(十億美元)
: 德國               412
: 奧地利(德附庸)      29
: 維琪法國(德附庸)   130
: 義大利             144
: 日本               196
: 軸心國合計         911
: 俄國               359
: 軸心國的GDP約是俄國的2.5倍,明顯優勢

GDP得換算成戰力才有用，讓我告訴你什麼叫做絕對優勢

火星/天王星/極星作戰發動前俄軍各戰線兵力:

                             人          火炮     戰車
卡列利阿方面軍 7A     :  340000          3931      220
列寧格勒沃爾霍夫西北  : 1232000         16435     1089
加里寧西方莫斯科衛戍區: 1890000         24682     3375
布良斯克沃羅涅日      :  644000          7834      884
西南頓河史達林格勒    : 1103000         15501     1463
北高加索方面軍        :  816000          8797      319

這個數字還不包括史達林同志還沒釋放出來的預備兵力跟蘇聯高裝檢表上的所有裝備。
德國佬在這時只有可憐的2700輛戰車不到(能動的還沒有一半)，再冬天的苦戰中，這個
數字始終沒有破3000。


蘇聯在1943/1/1的所有武裝如下
(火星跟天王星的巨大損失已經幫你算進去了，我真是佛心來的。)

700萬支的輕兵器，14000門的反戰車炮，13100門的防空炮，近37000門的野戰炮，18.6萬
門的迫擊砲，3600門卡秋沙，超過2萬輛各種戰車，近2萬架飛機，紅軍總數1100萬人，
對德部隊總數約530萬人。

如果看過這些損失就知道，德國人一點勝算都沒有

                            KIA/MIA     WIA    Tank/SP   Artillary  Airplane
Rzhev-Viazma offensive       272320  504569        957        7296       550
Voronezh-Vorosh Defense      375002  197825       2436       13716       783
Stalingrad Defense           323856  319986       1426       12137      2063
North Cauc. Defense          192791  181120        990        5049       644
Stalingrad Offensive         154885  330892       2915        3591       706
Rzhev-Viazma offensive       260000  500000       1847        1100       120


1942/7/28   Stalin的第227號命令 "不準再後退一步"
     8/5    第一個近衛軍團成立
     10/9   紅軍撤銷雙重指揮制
     11/19  天王星作戰
     11/24  紅軍合圍史達林格勒週遭軸心軍
     11/25  火星作戰
     12/30  小土星作戰成功!紅軍擊敗曼斯坦的解圍行動
1943/1/1    頓河作戰，三個方面軍纏上德A集團軍
     1/12   火花作戰
     1/13   Voronezh-Karkov作戰
     1/18   列寧格勒包圍圈打破，同日Zhukov晉升為蘇聯元帥
     2/2    史達林格勒的德軍投降，稍後Rokossovsky,Vatutin,Malinovsky晉升大將
            幾日後Voronov/Novikov等人晉升兵種元帥
     2/16   Vailevsky晉升蘇聯元帥


--

The enemy throws new forces to the front without regard to heavy losses and
penetrates deep into the Soviet Union, seizing new regions, destroying our
cities and villages, and violating, plundering and killing the Soviet
population. Combat goes on in region Voronej, near Don, in the south, and at
the gates of the Northern Caucasus. The German invaders penetrate toward
Stalingrad, to Volga and want at any cost to trap Kuban and the Northern
Caucasus, with their oil and grain. The enemy already has captured
Vorochilovgrad, Starobelsk, Rossosh, Kupyansk, Valuyki, Novochercassk, Rostov
on Don, half Voronej. Part of the troops of the Southern front, following the
panic- mongers, have left Rostov and Novochercassk without severe resistance
and without orders from Moscow, covering their banners with shame.

The population of our country, who love and respect the Red Army, start to be
discouraged in her, and lose faith in the Red Army, and many curse the Red
Army for leaving our people under the yoke of the German oppressors, and
itself running east.

Some stupid people at the front calm themselves with talk that we can retreat
further to the east, as we have a lot of territory, a lot of ground, a lot of
population and that there will always be much bread for us. They want to
justify the infamous behavior at the front. But such talk is falsehood,
helpful only to our enemies.

Each commander, Red Army soldier and political commissar should understand
that our means are not limitless. The territory of the Soviet state is not a
desert, but people - workers, peasants, intelligentsia, our fathers, mothers,
wives, brothers, children. The territory of the USSR which the enemy has
captured and aims to capture is bread and other products for the army, metal
and fuel for industry, factories, plants supplying the army with arms and
ammunition, railroads. After the loss of Ukraine, Byelorussia, Baltic
republics, Donetzk, and other areas we have much less territory, much less
people, bread, metal, plants and factories. We have lost more than 70 million
people, more than 800 million pounds of bread annually and more than 10
million tons of metal annually. Now we do not have predominance over the
Germans in human reserves, in reserves of bread. To retreat further - means
to waste ourselves and to waste at the same time our Motherland. Therefore it
is necessary to eliminate talk that we have the capability endlessly to
retreat, that we have a lot of territory, that our country is great and rich,
that there is a large population, and that bread always will be abundant.
Such talk is false and parasitic, it weakens us and benefits the enemy, if we
do not stop retreating we will be without bread, without fuel, without metal,
without raw material, without factories and plants, without railroads. This
leads to the conclusion, it is time to finish retreating. Not one step back!
Such should now be our main slogan.It is necessary to defend each position,
each meter of our territory, up to the last drop of blood, tocling for each
plot of Soviet land and to defend it as long as possible. Our Motherland is
experiencing hard days. We must stop, and then to throw back and smash the
enemy regardless of cost. The Germans are not so strong, as it seems to the
panic-mongers. They strain their last forces. To withstand their impact now,
means to ensure our victory in some months.Can we withstand the impact, and
then throw back the enemy to the west? Yes we can, because our factories and
plants in the rear are fine and our army receives ever more and more
airplanes, tanks, artillery and mortars. What do we lack? There is no order
and discipline in companies, battalions, regiments, in tank units and air
squadrons. This is our main deficiency. We should establish in our army the
most stringent order and solid discipline, if we want to salvage the
situation, and to keep our Motherland. It is impossible to tolerate
commanders and commissars permitting units to leave their positions. It is
impossible to tolerate commanders and commissars who admit that some
panic-mongers determined the situation on the field of combat and carried
away in departure other soldiers and opened the front to the enemy. The
panic-mongers and cowards should be exterminated in place. Henceforth the
solid law of discipline for each commander, Red Army soldier, and commissar
should be the requirement - not a single step back without order from higher
command. Company, battalion, regiment and division - commanders and
appropriate commissars, who retreat without orders from higher commanders,
are betrayers of the Motherland. These are the orders of our Motherland. To
execute this order - means to defend our lands, to save the Motherland, to
exterminate and to conquer the hated enemy. After the winter retreat under
pressure of the Red Army, when in German troops discipline became loose, the
Germans for recovery of discipline imposed severe measures which resulted in
quite good outcomes. They formed 100 penal companies from soldiers who were
guilty of breaches of discipline because of cowardice or bewilderment, put
them at dangerous sections of the front and commanded them to redeem their
sins by blood. They have also formed approximately ten penal battalions from
commanders guilty of breaches of discipline through cowardice or
bewilderment, deprived them of their decorations, transferred them to even
more dangerous sections of the front and commanded them to redeem their sins.
Finally, they have formed special squads and put them behind unstable
divisions and ordered them to shoot panic-mongers in case of unauthorized
retreats or attempted surrender. As we know, these measures were effective,
and now German troops fight better than they fought in the winter. And here
is the situation, that the German troops have good discipline, though they do
not have the high purpose of protection of the Motherland, and have only one
extortionate purpose - to subdue another's country, and our troops have the
higher purpose of protecting the abused Motherland,and do not have such
discipline and so suffer defeat. Is it necessary for us to learn from our
enemies, as our grandparents studied their enemies in the past and achieved
victory? I think it is necessary.

Order No. 227 by the People's Commissar of Defence of the USSR

信哉斯言阿，史達林同志。

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) 
◆ From: 61.229.125.85
推 keins:另外，車輛裡面的大西洋與遠東運輸量比例只有1942.7-1943.6
推 fatisuya:這證明了HOI中德國可以打敗蘇聯也只是遊戲而已XD
→ keins:的這一年內有2:1的比例，其他時間內至少是5:1，所以太平洋的
→ keins:影響主要是在機械/糧食/石油製品上，其中一部份是從伊朗運的
推 Silverdawn:給個推　整理得真棒
推 MKAngelheart:這場辯論看起來就像日本打蘇聯被蘇聯反推XD
推 Hartmann:只能說等級差太多，不管勢力史上日蘇或是現在版上的論述
推 LUDWIN:推，整理的好
推 Heavenglow:推好文章
推 swatteam:這個數字真的只有米妖+德國人+搖旗吶喊的歐洲人
→ swatteam:搞不好還要核彈外掛才有辦法推平....
推 PsycoZero:原PO的大縱深學說果然偉大...           (半誤
推 gfneo:推~~~~
推 kuninaka:好強@@
推 oldfatcat:難怪美帝不敢把冷戰弄熱　@@
推 dreamcity:蘇聯怎麼那麼喜歡星星作戰啊?
推 Trunicht:對於原po而言 美學不是逆推而是用火箭彈/地地戰術飛彈做
→ Trunicht:無差別屠殺　科科
推 Tbilisi:因為共產主義本來就是火星傳過來的
推 findarato:請問原PO...關於您和紅軍後來發展出來的縱深攻擊理論
→ findarato:有沒有哪些中文書可以介紹的@@?
推 GOLxDxROGER:簡單來講  想要擊敗俄國  只有搞革命
→ GOLxDxROGER:或是全世界圍攻  不然不可能
推 heinkel:不用,中美聯手,俄國就沒了(無誤)