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: 亞太天災威脅 恐百萬人傷亡
: 自由時報 2008/12/27
: 編譯張沛元／綜合雪梨二十六日外電報導
: 澳洲一份科學報告指出，亞太地區正面臨天災侵襲，導致重大傷亡的時代；都市化、氣候
: 變遷與食物短缺使得自然災害的危害加劇，恐一次就奪走上百萬條人命，其中又以印尼、
: 菲律賓與中國的風險最高。
: 中、菲、印尼 風險最高
: 雪梨晨驅報二十六日報導，官方機構「地質科學澳洲」的一份科學報告發現，地震與海嘯
: 等天災的衝擊，恐將隨著人口增加與氣候變遷而加劇；該報告已促使澳洲總理陸克文與印
: 尼總統尤德約諾成立聯合災難訓練與研究中心。
: 都會超級強震 奪命百萬
:
: 該報指出，澳洲科學家分析亞太地區發生地震、熱帶風暴、海嘯與火山爆發的可能性，並
: 且估計可能的死傷與受災人數；結果發現，位於喜馬拉雅造山帶、中國、印尼與菲律賓的
: 大都會，最可能遭到死亡人數超過一百萬人的地震侵襲；印尼平均每十年、菲律賓每數十
: 年可能發生嚴重影響數十萬人的火山爆發。至於孟加拉等人口爆炸的低地國家，則恐遭海
: 嘯、洪水與熱帶風暴蹂躪。
: 這份分析過去四百年來的天災數據，藉此預測未來天災可能性的報告指出，人口增加、氣
: 候變遷與食物短缺，都會導致天災災情更為惡化。這份研究說，奪走超過一萬人性命的天
: 災，有可能每十年間就發生數次，此外也可能發生影響所及超過一百萬人的大規模天災。
: 人口增加 傷亡風險增加
: 「地質科學澳洲」的科學家辛普森解釋說，人口增加是亞太地區容易遭天災蹂躪的主因，
: 因為人口一多，民眾就開始定居於以前沒住過的地方，像是容易發生土石流的陡坡地，或
: 每幾年就淹水的海濱或河濱。
原始新聞連結:
Disasters warning for Asia-Pacific
Mark Davis Political Correspondent
December 26, 2008
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/disasters-warning-for-asiapacific/2008/12/25/1229998661989.html
AUSTRALIA'S neighbours in the Asia-Pacific region face an era of
"mega-disasters" affecting hundreds of thousands of people as urbanisation,
climate change and food shortages amplify the impact of natural catastrophes
such as earthquakes and cyclones in coming years, scientific research has
shown.
The research - which has prompted the Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, and the
Indonesian President, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, to establish a joint disaster
training and research centre - identifies Indonesia, the Philippines and
China as the countries most likely to experience large-scale disasters.
Scientists at Geosience Australia analysed the incidence of hazards such as
earthquakes, cyclones, tsunamis and volcanoes throughout the region and then
estimated the numbers of people who would be killed or injured or lose their
homes or essential services.
This risk assessment found that so-called mega-cities in the Himalayan belt,
China, Indonesia and the Philippines were prime candidates for earthquakes
that could cause more than a million deaths.
Hundreds of thousands could be seriously affected by volcanoes erupting on
average once a decade in Indonesia and once every few decades in the
Philippines.
Tsunamis, floods and cyclones affecting tens of millions of people were
likely in low-lying "mega-deltas" like Bangladesh which were experiencing
population explosions and were vulnerable to climate change.
And many Pacific island nations had a high potential for catastrophes that
could affect large proportions of their populations and overwhelm local
government response and recovery efforts.
The Geoscience Australia risk assessment fed into a wider study by AusAID and
other Australian and Indonesian government agencies which concluded that the
severity of humanitarian crises in the region was increasing due to the
interaction of climate change, urbanisation, poor land use planning and
tension about access to resources.
The study, handed to Mr Rudd and Dr Yudhoyono for the Asia-Pacific Economic
Co-operation summit in Peru last month, said there were likely to be several
disasters killing more than 10,000 people each decade and there was the
potential for catastrophes affecting more than 1 million people.
Alanna Simpson, a scientist at Geoscience Australia, said the risk
assessments used data for the Asia-Pacific from the past 400 years and
modelling to predict the frequency of natural hazards.
"Whilst the incidence of natural hazards themselves - earthquakes, volcanic
eruptions and the like - hasn't really changed, the sheer number of people
living in the Asia-Pacific region means any earthquake has the potential to
affect hundreds of thousands, if not millions," Dr Simpson said.
"If we worked out that parts of Alaska, for instance, are likely to have a
volcanic eruption every 100 years, the impact of those events would be pretty
low because there is no one living in those parts of Alaska, whereas the same
frequency in Java will have a huge impact."
Dr Simpson said population growth was the main reason the Asia-Pacific was
highly vulnerable. "As populations grow, people are beginning to settle on
areas they wouldn't have historically - steep slopes that might be vulnerable
to landslides or coastal areas near large river mouths which are likely to
flood every couple of years."
Mr Rudd and Dr Yudhoyono agreed during the APEC summit to spend $67 million
to set up a disaster reduction facility in Jakarta. The facility, expected to
be operating by April, will aim to reduce the impact of natural hazards by
training emergency personnel and carrying out research on risks and threats.
Dr Simpson said the feasibility study on the facility carried out for Mr Rudd
and Dr Yudhoyono had concluded that there was a need for a stronger focus on
disaster mitigation.
"One of the things that quickly became apparent was that there were a lot of
mechanisms for disaster response but disaster risk reduction and mitigation
was an area where there had not been such a big drive," she said.
"One of the better ways you can mitigate is by understanding natural hazards.
If you know an area has a high earthquake potential then you make sure you
enforce building codes, and that can save a lot of lives."
She said Geoscience Australia would probably develop scenarios for different
parts of the region. These would be used for training emergency services.
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