[閒聊] Matt Kemp 第四順位?

[charliee (Double E)]

Personally, I don’t see any scenario that Kemp would figure into the top
four players selected on draft day, but I’ve heard rumblings of people
willing to do it, ahead of Ryan Braun and Chase Utley (the top three as
Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez & Alex Rodriguez). I like Kemp as much as the
next guy. I have him ranked as the second outfielder off the board and a
sure fire first round pick, but taking him in the top four just seems curious
to me, even if you put Ryan Braun in the Top Three.

這不是指Kemp是今年的第四順位，但據說很多人都願意用這個順位來選他，早於Utley跟
Braun。我很愛Kemp，我認為他是今年FB的第二號OF也絕對是第一輪貨，但第四順位真的
值得嗎?

He’s a stud offensive player, as he displayed early and often in 2009:

606 At Bats
.297 Batting Average (180 Hits)
26 Home Runs
101 RBI
97 Runs
34 Stolen Bases
.352 On Base Percentage
.490 Slugging Percentage
.349 Batting Average on Balls in Play

There is no number there that I don’t think he could repeat.

以上Kemp 09球季所繳出的數字，沒有任何一項我認為他今年辦不到。

He’s a career .299 hitter
The power came courtesy of a very realistic 14.4% HR/FB (his career mark is
13.6%) and 38.3% flyball rate
He stole 35 bases in 2008
He’ll be joined in the lineup by the likes of Manny Ramirez and Andre Ethier,
meaning there will be plenty of opportunities to both score and drive in runs.

Kemp是一位
生涯平均打擊率.299的打者
他的砲管非常實在，去年的HR/FB率是14.4%，生涯平均是13.6%，飛球率38.3%。
他08年偷了35個壘包。
他打線裡面的夥伴有Manny和Ethier，這代表著他有大量的得分或是打點機會。

He’s a star and we all know it, but what is the justification for taking him
over someone like Braun (or Utley for that matter), who has:

Home Run totals of 34, 37 and 32 the last three seasons.
The 32 HR year (2009) came courtesy of a 34.1% flyball rate when he had been
at 44% his first two seasons.  He has a realistic chance of reaching 40 in 2010

Has posted a career average of .308 including seasons of .324 and .320
In 2009 posted 114 RBI and 113 R.  Considering he shares a lineup with
Prince Fielder, he should easily be just as good as Kemp in both categories,
meaning they both should push 100/100.

從這些成績看得出來Kemp真的很強，但Braun呢?
Braun過去三年的HR數量是34,37,32。
32HR的那個球季(2009)，他的飛球率是34.1%，而他前兩季的飛球率是44%左右。這表示
這傢伙今年有很大的機會尻個40發。

他生涯的AVG平均是.308，其中包括一個.324和.320的球季。
去年他有114分打點,得了113分。跟Kemp比起來，他的隊友小王子火力也不遑多讓，
因此Kemp和Braun今年上看100/100應該都不是問題。

The only place where Kemp has the advantage is speed, though Braun is no
slouch there having stolen 15, 14 and 20 bases over the past three seasons.
Is he going to reach the 30+ plateau?  Probably not, but he more than makes
up for his “shortfall” there with the immense power he possesses.

Kemp比起Braun最大的優勢就是速度。Braun大概沒機會單季跑上30次，但過去的三季他
也有15,14,20次，相對於他擁有的砲管，這數字還是相當不錯。

Maybe it’s just me, but I just don’t see it.  Braun is an absolute stud
player and that’s not a knock on Kemp.  While Kemp could push 30/30, Braun
could go 40/20.  With the ability to get speed late in your draft, I’m more
than happy to take a player who helps there, but has tremendous power as
opposed to the player with better speed and less power.

因此我認為Kemp跟Braun的差別就在於一個是30/30，一個是40/20的球員。而我個人認為
速度這玩意在後段選秀比較容易補到，因此我會傾向在這裡選一個砲管大管、速度中上，
勝過一個附帶風火輪的中上砲管。

What about you?  If you had the choice which of the two players would you
take and why?

這是我的個人看法?當你今年擁有這順位你會先選誰呢?

http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=5106

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◆ From: 123.192.192.222
推 baberuth:去年我有一個盟...普神 阿肉 Kemp 龍哥
推 asd831129:我會選utley  內野炮稀有啊   他們兩個我一定選Bruan
→ charliee:八人盟?
→ OoyaoO:去年盟的內野一圈 米糕/Utley/Bartlett/ARod/功夫熊貓XD
推 Vicente14:Braun穩定輸出三年了 一定先選他
推 abc12812:單以成績來說Braun比較好，但Kemp多CF守位
推 mjfang:如果外野守位是三個OF 那我會先選Braun
→ mjfang:那如果是LF CF RF分開 我會認真考慮先選Kemp
推 mjfang:但是我覺得Carlos Gonzalez可以期待一下 年輕腿砲 又是COL
推 stk11:Rotowire的預測把Kemp放在Braun之前
推 Narancia:這麼高估Kemp我怎麼偷..咦好像之前說過了
推 au3rupy3:Carlos Gonzalez很值得期待 去年後段打得超威
→ Dorasaga:問題是很多人不喜歡Kemp (like me)，他不太受媒體寵愛
推 carlls:速度在後段還能補，40HR Power和高打擊率只有前幾輪會有~
→ gamelist:我也不喜歡他XDD  不會考慮選
推 aultra:Kemp是一個值得偷 但目前不適合用第一輪去選的球員
→ aultra:守備位置不討喜 而且連中心棒次都沒站穩 風險不小
→ aultra:前兩輪最好都是球隊一哥級的 打再爛也不會被動棒次
→ aultra:不然一低潮起來 連基本盤都守不住
推 postino09:同上 我喜歡Matt Kemp 但要我用第一輪選 實在選不太下手