by Jack Moore - 4/30/2010
If anybody's career looked over after the 2009 season, it was Austin Kearns.
The right fielder was coming off two seasons with wRC+ numbers of 72 and 79
respectively. He only appeared in 166 games due to injury. His HR/FB rate and
BABIP plummeted. His fielding fell from excellent to merely average in the
corners. All in all, Kearns went from a nearly 4 win player to a replacement
level player all in the span of two years.
Kearns is seeing a complete career revival in Cleveland this year. No, he's
not going to come anywhere near maintaining the ridiculous 205 wRC+ he's
posted in 51 plate appearances. Still, the .340 wOBA projected by the ZiPS
rest of season projection is a far cry above the sub-.300 wOBAs he posted in
his final two years in Washington.
The key to Kearns's year so far is power – mostly in the form of seven
doubles, but also in two home runs. Kearns's seven doubles already surpasses
his total from 2009 and is only three behind his total from 2008. His walk
rate is down, but that's partly because of a higher Zone% and Contact% than
any we've seen in his career. As pitchers realize that Kearns is once again a
major league quality and even possibly an above average hitter, they will
likely nibble more, and Kearns's walk rate will regress towards his career
mean of 11.5%. His power will decline, as the doubles will likely turn into
singles, but Kearns still, as the ZiPS projection suggests, has a chance at
being an average hitter even after a good amount of regression.
Kearns suffered from multiple injuries in 2008 and 2009, including loose
bodies in his elbow, a stress fracture in his left foot, and a right thumb
injury. Prior to these injuries, Kearns had been playing at an all star
level. Thanks to a 10+% walk rate and solid power, Kearns was able to post
above average wOBAs in both 2006 and 2007. Combining that with star-level
defense in right field - +14 UZRs for two years in a row, Kearns was worth
3.8 wins a year in 2006 and 2007. With the injuries left in the past and with
Kearns still only 29 years old – he turns 30 in May – there was still a
chance for a career revival. The roll of the dice only cost Cleveland a minor
league contract. Kearns has rewarded them well so far in 2010.
大意：
過去擁有很好power跟優秀UZR的Kearns
因為不斷的傷勢讓他逐漸變成只有replacement level跟普通手套的跑龍套corner OF
今年突然恢復的CT%跟投手大意給他太多好球打讓今年看起來可能是他的revival
但投手開始小心之後 保送會回到生涯平均 好打的球會變少
考量到已經不年輕 也許最後只能繳出類似06,07年wOBA、WAR3.8左右的水準
但仍然會可能是大復活的一年 尤其CLE只用了minor約簽他真是爽到了
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