推 Elton320:感謝翻譯文 05/01 08:35
by Joe Pawlikowski - 4/30/2010
In the past few days I've discussed two components of the
Yankees-Tigers-Diamondbacks trade over the winter. Both Austin Jackson and
Edwin Jackson present interesting cases. The former has gotten off to a hot
start despite some concerning peripherals, and the other has gotten hit
around a bit in two of his five starts. Arizona has actually seen better from
another pitcher their received, 25-year-old right-hander Ian Kennedy.
去年的三方交易案中的A-Jax跟E.Jackson
前者開季火熱儘管有些地方很讓人擔心 後者是在五場先發中的兩場被打到出汁
但小蛇拿到的Ian Kennedy的確有進步
In March I wondered about Kennedy's potential in the NL. He flopped during
his limited exposure with the Yankees, but a move out of the AL East might
have been the boost Kennedy needed to get going. He is, after all, a former
first-round draft pick who so consummately dominated the minors during his
first professional season that he essentially forced the Yankees to call him
up (well, that and Mike Mussina's breakdown). An impressive September earned
him a rotation spot in 2008, but that ended in disaster.
三月的時候我很擔心Kennedy在NL到底行不行
在洋基沒啥上場時間讓他沒空間表現 離開美東應該是對他好的
至少也是個第一輪 因為屠殺了minor而被nyy叫上來Major
九月的良好表現讓他在2008贏得了rotation 但結果是場災難
In Arizona it appears things are starting to come together. Throughout the
minors Kennedy displayed excellent strikeout skills, 9.9 per nine innings, or
28 percent of the batters he faced, while walking just 2.8 per nine. During
his Yankees tenure he struggled in both areas, but with the Diamondbacks he
has excelled. In 30.1 innings he has struck out 27, 8.01 per nine, or 21.6
percent of all batters faced. He has also kept his walk rate low, just 2.37
per nine. This success hasn't exactly shown up in the results yet -- he owns
a 4.45 ERA -- but there are some signs that could change.
在Arizona好像該來的都來了 Kennedy在minor就有很棒的K/9、BB/9只有2.8
在NYY時他這兩項都吃鱉 但在ARI都很棒 30.1局K掉了27人 BB/9只有2.37
但K/BB的成功沒有顯示在他的ERA上 但某些跡象顯示可能會有變化
Kennedy's biggest problem this year has been the home run. He has allowed
2.08 per nine, or one every 15.6 batters faced. The home runs have been
concentrated, with the Dodgers hitting three and the Phillies two, each in a
single game. That type of home run rate stems from his ridiculously high
HR/FB percentage. Kennedy will not see 17.9 percent of his fly balls leave
the park this year, so his home run rate should drop as the season
progresses. This shows up in his xFIP, 4.07.
Kennedy最大的問題是容易放煙火 HR/9高達2.08
但這些HR蠻集中的 躲人轟了他3隻、費城人轟了他兩隻 都在同一場比賽裡
這樣的HR頻率來自於誇張的HR/FB% 理論上應該會下降
從他的xFIP只有4.07看得出來
In terms of batted balls, a pitcher like Kennedy, who doesn't blow away
hitters, could do more to induce ground balls. In the minors he induced about
39.7 percent grounders, which is just a tick above where he currently sits,
37.9 percent. He has mixed in a two-seamer more frequently this year, so
perhaps as he throws that more he'll generate more grounders. That will not
only help produce more ground ball outs, but will also help his efforts to
keep the ball in the park.
像他這樣的投手 應該想辦法多製造一點滾地球
在minor他有39.7%的GB% 現在只有低一些些
今年他有使用更多的2-seamer 也許之後會製造更多GB
不只能多製造滾地出局 也能幫他想辦法把更多球留在場內
While he has always been a four-pitch pitcher, Kennedy showed reluctance to
use his curveball in 2008. Instead he used his fastball 63.3 percent of the
time. Some pitchers can get by with that usage level, but when the pitch
averages 89.1 mph, secondary stuff becomes necessary. Kennedy went mostly to
his changeup, but that apparently was not fooling AL hitters. This season he
has thrown 56.5 percent fastballs, though that includes many more
two-seamers. He has relied heavily on his changeup, throwing it 20.6 percent
of the time, but has also mixed in his curveball much more frequently. It
accounts for 16.9 percent of his pitches. This comes at the cost of his
slider, a pitch that AL hitters destroyed in 2008.
雖然他一直是個4-pitch投手 在2008年他卻不太用他的curveball反而是丟了63.3%的FB
有些投手可以用這麼多FB投得好 但對於只有89.1m的投手 secondary stuff變得極重要
Kennedy大部分仰賴他的CHG 但明顯騙不到AL的打者
這一季他用了56.5%的FB 其中很多還是2-seamer
大量使用他的CHG-20.6% 同時加上更多的curveball-16.9%
犧牲掉的是他的Slider 也是2008年AL打者完爆他的球種
There are still some negative signs with Kennedy, starting with his .225
BABIP. That will come up, but his declining home run rate could off-set that.
Combined with a high strikeout rate -- and only 2 of 27 have been of the
pitcher -- and a low walk rate, and he could certainly turn in a good season.
It's too early to definitively conclude that Kennedy's luck will change for
the better, but there are some indications that it will.
但Kennedy仍然有一些其他負面的跡象 例如他.225的BABIP
這BABIP會上修 但同時應該下修的HR/FB%會抵消這個效果
加上他的高K%跟低BB% 他三振的27位打者還只有2位是投手 他應該會有一個不錯的球季
要說Kennedy的運氣會好轉還言之過早 但是至少有一些現象說會這樣的
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※ 編輯: jdtrue 來自: 140.112.217.50 (05/01 02:56)