[閒聊] 昨天那根之後 今天國外的分析大概都

[ciccio (三葉蟲要)]

主要因為美債殖利率大噴根黃金崩盤

所以大概結論都一樣:

Markets like this are what trading is all about.

The taper theme is in full play and that means weak bonds, lower stocks and a
stronger US dollar. The moves have been big and straightforward so far and it
’s a question of jumping on for the ride or fading moves that go too far.
The main reasons to be cautious here, especially with USD/JPY, are China and
the Fed conditionality. China isn’t in danger of blowing up but the PBOC
sounds like it wants a shakeout and that’s a clear case where the laws of
unintended consequences apply. The Fed conditionality refers to the economic
guidelines they set out for tapering.

The Bernanke rules for tapering will make the market even more sensitive to
incoming economic data. The Fed has been overly optimistic repeatedly
throughout the recovery and that’s a trend I would bet on to continue. That
said, betting against tapering isn’t this week’s trade and it’s probably
not next week’s trade either.

The breakout in 10-year yields is a big deal and gold is headed to the
slaughter house. This is a market that has been searching for a clear theme
and now it’s here, buy the dollar dips

--
Wish that I could cry
Fall upon my knees
Find a way to lie
About a home I'll never see....
It's not easy to be me.....

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 211.75.100.10
※ 編輯: ciccio          來自: 211.75.100.10        (06/20 21:03)
→ fantasywing:美債"殖利率"大噴
→ ciccio:對 我改一下 XD
※ 編輯: ciccio          來自: 211.75.100.10        (06/20 21:07)
推 ckgegg:"buy the dollar dips" 現在剛起飛就是了...?
→ ciccio:他們的意思是有拉回就買
→ ciccio:不過我自己的做法會是拉回買 突破也買 反正怎樣都要買 XD
→ ntoufatman:buy and hold！
→ ntoufatman:只剩我一個人看好美債殖利率會跌下去2%以下嗎？
推 darkdixen:梭了 全下美金!
推 Casval:趁著行情牛，有錢趕緊投；掙了錢以後，吃喝不發愁。
推 conshelity:中
推 chadyang:爽ㄏ!
→ fbptthu:只能說持有到到期  如果沒有資金問題  應該就不會被Call
→ fbptthu:如果不是  那就只好等margin call或被停權或被理專換部位
→ fbptthu:要不就是風控沒看到長官您超限@@ XD
→ ntoufatman:XD 我打腫臉了！！我錯了～2.0%再見
推 ryanchao:胖俠，我還是很「看好」10yr yield會跌回2%以下....
→ ryanchao:不過會是在今年Q3以後比較可能...XD
→ ryanchao:美元我不認為還沒這麼快噴...
→ ryanchao:但是中長期走強訊號已經出現三個了...
→ ryanchao:上面更正「美元我不認為會這麼快噴」XDDD
→ ntoufatman:我還是得準備他回不去2%的情況啊～XDDD