[外媒] 《經濟學人》：馬恐遭黨內孤立(中英對照)

[joelee828 (椰子樹)]

Sunflower sutra
太陽花經

Apr 8th 2014, 8:54 by J.R. | TAIPEI

李鐘林／譯


MA YING-JEOU, Taiwan’s president, is no doubt relieved. After three weeks
occupying the debating chamber of the Legislative Yuan, Taiwan’s parliament,
student protesters agreed on April 7th to end their sit-in within three days.
Demonstrators have fought with riot police, and some have been injured;
hundreds of thousands converged on the presidential office on March 30th. But
signs of disunity are appearing in Mr Ma’s ruling party, the Kuomintang (or
KMT). And relations with China are in danger of cooling.


台灣總統馬英九現在肯定大大鬆了一口氣。在立法院被佔領近三個星期後，學生同意在三
日內，也就是四月七日當天退場。這群抗議群眾和鎮暴警察對抗，有些人因此受傷，在三
月三十日當天，更有成千上萬的群眾包圍總統府。不過，馬英九所屬的執政黨──國民黨
──卻開始出現雜音，而且，台灣和中國的關係也有可能面臨惡化的危機。


The students’ occupation of parliament was in a bid to prevent the passage
of an agreement allowing for freer trade in services with China. They argue
that the pact was negotiated in secret and will allow China to gain greater
political control over the island. One of their main demands was for a law
allowing for greater public oversight of such cross-strait agreements, to be
implemented before this particular services pact is passed. On April 3rd Mr Ma
’s cabinet partially responded to this demand by approving a bill for
monitoring such pacts with China—but still did not agree to the idea of
enacting it first. It was only on April 6th, when Taiwan’s parliamentary
speaker, Wang Jin-pyng, pledged to halt review of the services deal until
such a law was enacted that the students agreed to call it a day.


此次學生佔領議會的運動，主要訴求是阻擋和中國簽訂的自由貿易協議。學生指出，這份
和中國的黑箱協議將會加劇中國對台灣的政治控制，其中一項訴求是儘快立法讓全民能夠
共同監督兩岸條例，先立法再審查。四月三日，馬政府的內閣只回應了部分訴求，答應設
計監督條例，可是並未同意先立法。四月六日，台灣立法院長王金平才正式回應學生訴求
，承諾先立法在審查服貿，才有了突破性的進展。


Mr Wang’s promise (made, to much media fanfare, during a visit to the
students in the debating chamber) was glaringly at odds with the stance of Mr
Ma’s administration. Mr Ma’s spokeswoman, Garfie Li, said she had no idea
that Mr Wang, a powerful figure in the KMT, had planned to say this. The
cabinet’s spokesman, Sun Lih-chyun, did not agree with this pledge. It is
unclear what will happen next. Officials say passage of the services pact,
which opens sensitive industries including telecommunications and publishing
to Chinese investment, is vital for Taiwan’s economic development and its
participation in some regional trade blocs. But other observers say that Mr
Ma risks isolating himself within the fractured KMT if he exerts more
pressure on lawmakers to pass the contentious pact. The opposition and many
Taiwanese, fearful of greater economic integration with China, still firmly
support Mr Wang’s pledge. And not all students are ready to leave the
chamber.


王金平的承諾顯然和馬政府並不站在同一立場（王金平進入立法院探視學生更引起媒體一
陣騷動）。王金平在國民黨的地位舉足輕重，可是馬政府發言人李佳霏則表示對王院長的
發言事先並不知情，行政院發言人孫立群先前也不同意這項訴求。至於情勢會如何發展，
目前還不明朗。政府官員一再宣稱，服貿對台灣的經濟發展不可或缺，服貿更可以促進台
灣加入其他區域貿易聯盟，不過這份服貿卻開放中國投資通訊、出版等敏感產業。更有觀
察家指出，如果馬英九持續對立委施壓盡速通過協議，在國民黨已被分化的情形下，他將
面臨在黨內被孤立的風險。目前，在野黨和恐懼中國經濟干預加重的台灣人一概支持王金
平的承諾。不過，也並非所有學生都打算退出立院。


Some students say Mr Wang’s high-profile visit also generated expectations
among the public that the protests would soon end. Even before his promise, a
poll conducted between April 2nd and 3rd by TVBS, a broadcaster, suggested
that many Taiwanese are weary of parliamentary paralysis. Fully 43% opposed
the services pact—but more than half (56%) thought the students should
either end their protest or take it to another venue. Oliver Chen, a student
spokesman, says that their protest has now gained enough influence, but also
that students are wilting. “Our comrades are really tired. We are physically
and spiritually exhausted.”


有些學生表示，王金平高調探視，讓社會開始期待這場抗稱能早日結束。早在他做出承諾
前，台灣新聞媒體TVBS在四月二日、三日的民調就顯示多數台灣民眾擔心議事癱瘓，其中
，有四成三的受訪者反對服貿，但也有超過半數（五成六）的受訪者認為學生應該結束抗
爭或轉往其他管道。學生代表陳瑞光則表示，他們的抗爭已經累積了足夠能量，可是學生
仍然在等待，他說：「大家都累了，我們現在身心俱疲」。


Mr Ma and Mr Wang are bitter enemies. Their animosity intensified after Mr Ma
attempted to expel Mr Wang from the party last September. Last month a court
ruled in Mr Wang’s favour, allowing him to keep his party membership. Liu
Bih-rong, a political scientist at Soochow University in Taipei, thinks Mr
Wang is trying to win kudos for resolving the crisis in order to shore up his
power. This would allow him eventually to challenge Mr Ma for dominance in
the KMT ahead of presidential elections in 2016. If the monitoring bill is
passed before the services pact, as Mr Wang has pledged, protracted
parliamentary negotiations—and the possibility that the pact could be
scrapped altogether—would seriously hurt Mr Ma’s credibility with China.
Already nine months have passed since Taiwan and China concluded the pact.


馬王向來就是死敵。早在去年九月，馬英九企圖將王金平逐出國民黨起，兩人更加水火不
容，而就在上個月，馬英九任下的法官還保留了王金平的黨籍。台灣東吳大學政治系教授
劉必榮認為，王金平試著解決這次危機來贏得掌聲，進一步鞏固他的權力，更要在2016總
統大選前挑戰馬英九在國民黨黨內的勢力。如果正如王金平親口承諾的，監督法案通過之
後，勢必拖延審議時間，屆時將嚴重傷害馬英九對中國政府的誠信，因為台灣和中國早在
九個月前就簽署了這項協議。


Mr Ma, who has been in power since 2008, has staked both Taiwan’s economic
recovery and his political legacy on the historic detente he has fostered
with the mainland. A landmark visit by China’s minister for Taiwan affairs,
Zhang Zhijun, planned for this month, has been postponed, say Taiwanese
government officials. The trip would have been the first formal visit to
Taiwan from a mainland official since 1949. The invitation to visit Taiwan
was extended by Taiwan’s mainland minister when the two met in Nanjing
nearly two months ago in the first meeting between Taiwanese and Chinese
officials since the Chinese civil war. China watchers say the government in
Beijing wants to see the services pact approved before it considers any other
form of rapprochement, such as a proposed deal to liberalise the cross-strait
goods trade. Mr Ma's dream of meeting China’s leader, Xi Jinping, before the
end of his presidential term in 2016, may have become a little more distant.


馬英九自2008年掌權開始，一方面希望復甦台灣經濟，一方面又想在兩岸關係和緩之際提
高自己在大陸累積的政治資本，讓自己每一步都走在鋼索上。台灣政府官員表示，中國國
台辦主任張志軍在本月到台灣的歷史性訪問計畫，現在也宣布暫停。這原先是自1949年以
來中國大陸官員到台灣的正式參訪。這次的邀請，延續自兩個月前台灣陸委會主委到南京
的參訪，同時也也是國共內戰以來台灣和中國政府官員首度正式會面。中國觀察家說，北
京政府希望看到服貿通過，才能考慮其他協議，像是兩岸貨貿。現在，馬英九朝思暮想的
馬習會，在2016年總統任期結束前，可能又更遙遠了些。

（出處：http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2014/04/politics-taiwan）

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※ 編輯: joelee828 (36.237.125.199), 04/08/2014 22:07:08
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