推 pushfish:NPV=O是投資不賺不賠 即有投資等於無投資 09/22 01:09
→ pushfish:一年後知道投資會損失 就不花錢投資了(npv=0) 09/22 01:11
→ yaevna:所以傳統的部份，失敗的NPV不為0，是因為不知道會不會失敗 09/22 08:22
→ yaevna:所以NPV一樣為負值，是這個意思嗎?! 09/22 08:23
→ pushfish:沒錯~ 09/22 08:46
C company is considering a project that has an up-front cost at t=0 of
$1,500,000.
The project's subsequent cash flows critically depend on whether its products
become the industry standard. There is a 75 percent chance that the products
will become the industry standard, in which case the project's expected cash
flows will be $500,000 at the end of each of the next seven years(t=1...7).
There is a 25 percent chance that the products will not become the industry
standard, in which case the expected cash flows will be $50,000 at the end of
each of the next seven years (t=1...7).
The company will know for sure one year from today whether its products will
have become the industry standard.
It's considering whether to make the investment today or to wait a year until
after it finds out if the products have become the industry standard.
If it waits a year, the project's up-front cost at t=1 will remain at
$1,500,000.
If it chooses to wait, the subsequent cash flows will remain at $500,000 per
year if the product becomes the industry standard, and $50,000 per year if the
product does not become the industry standard.
However, if it decides to wait, the subsequent cash flows will be received
only for six years.
Assume that all cash flows are disconunted at 10 percent. If the company
chooses to wait a year before proceeding, how much will this increase or
decrease the project's expected NPV in today's dollar(t=0), relative to the
project's NPV if it proceeds today?
先謝謝看完那麼長的題目，
我想問的是關於解答的部份，解答上分為兩部份，一為傳統NPV，另一為擴張NPV(等一年)
傳統：
成功NPV=９３．４２萬
失敗NPV=－１２５．６６萬
今日的NPV期望值=９３．４２＊０．７５－１２５．６６＊０．２５=３８．６５萬
擴張：
成功NPV=６７．７６萬
失敗NPV=－１２８．２２萬
之後註明一年後若產品失敗，NPV<0，此時應放棄投資案，即NPV=0。
一年後的NPV期望值=６７．７６＊０．７５＋０＊０．２５=５０．８２萬
我想請問的是那傳統部份，失敗的NPV為什麼就不用放棄投資案、設NPV=0呢？
不知道是不是漏了題目的意思，還是觀念錯誤了呢？！
請大家指教，非常感謝～～
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