※ 引述《doremi987 (抖雷咪)》之銘言：
: An insurance company believes that people can be
: divided into two classes-lose that are accident-prone
: and those are not. Their statistics show that an
: accident-prone person will have an accident at some
: time within a fixed 1-year period with probability 0.4.
: Whereas this probability decreases to 0.2 for a
: non accident-prone person. If we assum that 30% of the
: population is a accident-prone person.
: What is the conditional probability that a new policy
: holder will have an accident his second year of policy
: ownership, given that he has an accident in his first year?
如果理解沒錯的話
他是問一個投保人第一年發生意外的情況下第二年也發生意外的機率
第一年發生意外機率30％*0.4+70％*0.2＝12%+14%=0.26
連兩年都發生意外機率 12%^2+14%^2＝0.034
so 0.034/0.26=0.13077
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