推 Rebark:感謝分享 06/22 22:31
推 NPLNT:感謝分享 06/22 23:44
http://www.cw.com.tw/article/index.jsp?id=34976
中東避糧荒，發動「外包」搶糧！
作者：經濟學人 出處：Web Only 2008/06
全球糧食短缺，迫使中東地區各國政府竭盡腦汁，以尋求解決之道。
許多國家一開始採用擴大補貼和提高工資等傳統方法，
但很快就發現，
他們必須跳脫側重於保護消費者權益的短期救濟措施，
改用擬訂長期策略的方式，才能穩定物價及確保供應量。
受限於缺乏合適投資，中東和北非國家的農業發展不但規模小，效率也不佳。
過去幾項大型工程計劃，如利比亞的人造河流工程，最後皆宣告失敗。
這使得該區糧食仍主要仰賴進口。
因此，這些國家正積極對外尋求穩定的糧食供應來源。
5月中旬，沙烏地阿拉伯政府宣布，將投資於巴西、烏克蘭、泰國和印度等國的農業生產；
阿拉伯聯合大公國已與巴基斯坦領袖們展開長期農業投資會談；
利比亞則簽署了協議，將開發位於烏克蘭的大片農地。
雖然這些措施能為地區的糧食供應鏈帶來更大經濟效益，但也伴隨相當風險。
一旦糧食生產國的政局不穩，海外投資者容易淪為生產國人民紓發怨氣的對象。
而投資者也必須確保生產國市場的供應充足之後，才能將產品運送回國。
此外，中國也早已成為波斯灣國家在海外農地併購活動上的競爭對手。
越來越多的國家相信，糧食外包政策可能使國際貿易制度變得更為複雜。
不過，面對國內可能的動蕩不安，中東和北非國家仍將堅持下去，
以確保全國人民都能以合理價格享有足夠糧食。
http://english.cw.com.tw/article.do?action=show&id=10213
Middle East economy: Food outsourcing
By The Economist Intelligence Unit
From The Economist Published:June 20, 2008
Global food shortages, which have resulted in soaring food prices and riots
in some Middle Eastern states have forced regional governments to think
laterally for a solution.
Starved of proper investment, agriculture throughout the Middle East and
North Africa (MENA) region has developed little and remains generally
small-scale and inefficient. Attempts at large projects have more often than
not resulted in a huge waste of resources. Libya’s Great Man-made River
project, designed to irrigate huge swathes of arable land to enable the
country to become self-sufficient in food, has proved a monumental white
elephant, while Saudi Arabia, after having poured billions into the
cultivation of wheat has finally given up on the idea, realising that it was
far too expensive and, more importantly, used up far too much water, for
cultivation to continue.
Consequently, the region remains dependent on imported food. And, as a
corollary, it has been affected more than most by inflated global commodity
prices. This has been exacerbated by increasing regional demand within the
Gulf in particular, on the back of a rapidly rising immigrant population. The
six member states of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) are estimated to
have spent US$10bn on the importation of foodstuffs in 2007, a figure that is
projected to rise by up to 40% in 2008. Since 2000, MENA's food import bill
has surged by over 150%.
Land grab
Consequently, governments around MENA are now looking to secure their own
sources of food supply. In mid-May, the Saudi government announced that it
would co-ordinate with local private-sector companies and invest in strategic
agricultural interests in key producer countries such as Brazil, Ukraine,
Thailand and India, guaranteeing for itself supplies of cereals, meat and
vegetables. It is already in advanced negotiations with Thai investors and a
deal on rice farms in Thailand is likely before the end of the year.
Similarly, the United Arab Emirates is also considering purchasing
large-scale farms in Pakistan, in concert with Abraaj Capital, a private
equity company. While the government has been in extensive discussions with
the Pakistani leadership over a framework for long-term agricultural
investment, Abraaj has been buying up tracts of land throughout Pakistan,
having acquired, in league with the government and other private
funds, up to 800,000 acres in the past year. The emirate of Abu Dhabi has
purchased over 70,000 acres of arable land in Sudan, while Libya has signed
deals to develop large tracts of agricultural holdings in Ukraine.
These measures will undoubtedly inject greater economic efficiency into the
region's food-supply chain. But there are inherent risks associated with such
a strategy. Should political tensions arise within producer states, overseas
owners of domestic production assets are likely to be an early target of
domestic resentment. Nor will MENA states be able to protect their own
outsourced farming projects as well as they may be able to protect domestic
agricultural production. Furthermore, national investors will have to ensure
that the producer states' markets are well supplied before shipping produce
back home. In addition, Gulf states are already in competition for prime
agricultural land with China. Under its "go outward" strategy, China has been
leasing overseas farmland since 1996, but has stepped up its acquisitive
activities in recent years as global food prices have started to rise.
Doha death knell
These policies have inevitably raised concerns over market distortion, most
notably from the US and the EU. While these two actors have little grounds
for complaint, on account of their own agricultural subsidy programmes, there
is a growing belief that such outsourcing policies may further complicate the
international trade regime. In particular, it may ultimately signal the death
of the Doha Development Round, which was predicated on the opening of
agricultural markets. But MENA countries, and in particular, Gulf states,
will not be overly perturbed by this. Faced with potential unrest, they will
persist in pursuing policies which will ensure sufficient bread at affordable
prices for all their citizens.
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