Re: [編譯] 馬侃有可能勝選的5個原因

[oplz (Go Patriots! Go Brady!)]

Obama 會贏, 哈佛大學的搞笑諾貝爾網站說的..

Barack Obama Will Win the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election

Now that both major political parties have announced their nominees for
president and vice president, the Annals of Improbable Research U.S.
Presidential Election Algorithm (Debowy and Schulman 2003) can be used to
predict the results of the upcoming November election.

The algorithm was developed based on the experience of the major party
candidates for president and vice president in each of the 54 U.S.
presidential elections between 1789 and 2000 and correctly predicted the
outcome of the 2004 election.

According to the algorithm, being a United States Senator does not contribute
to one’s electability for president or vice president, so the Obama/Biden
ticket has a total electability of zero. In addition to his 22 years in the
Senate, John McCain spent four years in the U.S. House of Representatives,
giving him 4 points of presidential electability. However, he divorced his
first wife (-110 electability points), so he has a total presidential
electability of -106. Sarah Palin has been governor of Alaska for two years,
which means she has a vice presidential electability of 2 and the
McCain/Palin ticket has a total electability of -104.

The algorithm thus predicts that the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and
Joe Biden will win the election in November. The fact that both major
political parties chose candidates with low electabilities when candidates
with high electability were availablesuggests that the validity of the Annals
of Improbable Research U.S. Presidential Election Algorithm is not yet
accepted by most major party primary voters in the United States, despite its
100% rate of successful predictions.

文章出處:
Improbable Research http://tinyurl.com/6hgnks

使用的 algorithm:
http://members.verizon.net/%7Evze3fs8i/air/Elections.htm

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 134.174.140.104
※ 編輯: oplz            來自: 134.174.140.104      (08/31 00:36)
推 MRZ:好機車的理論XD
推 going90:XD
推 vicklin:囧
推 dblsesame:XD 2003年的algorithm 就算100% successful rate
→ dblsesame:也只對過一次吧! on the other hand, no. of children
→ dblsesame:one raised must factor heavily in McCain's formula.
→ dblsesame:XD
推 MRZ:樓上認真了,這種擺明就是在婊人的搞笑理論沒有什麼好在乎的
推 dblsesame:呃 没有認真阿 我說McCain拿小孩人數當公式是在開玩笑..
推 yeh67:麥肯輸定了  一想到夏馨背後的軍事工業複合體 我支持歐巴馬
推 ncyc:樓上支持的人還要增兵阿富汗呢
推 yeh67:阿富汗問題得到聯合國安理會的背書
→ ncyc:一樣是戰爭、一樣會讓軍工複合體有利益
推 swallow73:這點還真不得不同意n大,左派選民支持Nader吧
推 ncyc:說得難聽點，掀起戰爭就負起責任收拾局面，不是從一個戰場撤
→ ncyc:退然後轉進另外一個戰場
→ yeh67:總之 更換不同黨派的外交軍事幕僚群 至少能讓人憧憬未來
→ ncyc:領導者可以換，但是官僚系統成員不可能全換