作者kingpredrag (I love Man Utd!!!!!!!!!)
看板Kings
標題[外電] 國王可以等嗎？
時間Mon Apr 26 21:57:45 2010
Can the Kings Wait?
國王可以等嗎？
http://0rz.tw/PyHR7
Patience is the buzz word in Sacramento right now. The Bee's Jason Jones is
the latest to report a sense the Kings will remain fairly quiet in free
agency, instead following the so-called Portland-Oklahoma City model: build
through the draft, and add cheap supplementary players. The argument is that
by focusing on youth and flexibility, you build a foundation for long-term
success rather than chasing one good season.
But the strategy Portland and OKC have undertaken has been seriously
misconstrued. Yes, both teams have built their core through the draft. No,
neither team has signed a top-level free agent. But what the Blazers and
Thunder have done, and what Sacramento is purporting to be doing are
completely different.
After the jump, I explain why.
「耐心」這個詞目前在沙加緬度很熱門，蜂報記者Jason Jones最近一篇文章就提到國王
今年暑假最好保持觀望，應該學習拓荒者和雷霆的例子，由選秀重建，用便宜的工兵補
強，究竟我們應該專注於年輕球員身上重建打造一支常勝的勁旅，抑或我們可以隨機應
變追求一個球季的光榮。
然而我們誤解了拓荒者和雷霆的策略，兩隊皆藉由選秀確立球隊核心，兩隊也都沒有簽
下任何頂級的自由球員，但兩隊所做的和國王打算去做的完全是兩碼子事。
我將在下面作解釋。
Portland's core can be defined as Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge and Greg
Oden. Roy was the No. 6 pick in 2006. Aldridge was No. 2 in that same draft.
Oden was, of course, the No. 1 pick in 2007. (This ignores Martell Webster, a
2005 lotto pick.) Oklahoma City's core would be Kevin Durant (No. 2 in 2007),
Jeff Green (No. 5 in 2007) and Russell Westbrook (No. 4 in 2008), plus
perhaps someday soon Jeff Harden (No. 3 in 2009).
Portland has three top-6 picks from within the past four years. Oklahoma City
has four.
After June, the Kings will have two.
Sure, one of those two is Tyreke Evans, and the other could be John Wall or
Evan Turner. But to get a third top-6 pick, the Kings will again have to be
awful -- as in 26 wins or worse -- in 2010-11. Anyone looking forward to
that? And let's face it: Evans isn't Durant, and probably will never be
Durant. I'm as starry-eyed as the next guy, but Durant is a LeBron rival.
He's not of this planet. Anyone projecting Evans to rival Durant or LeBron
within a few years is bargaining with lunacy. Reke's great, and a
hard-worker, and the brightest star Sacramento's ever had. But he's not
Durant.
拓荒者的核心是Roy，Alsridge和Oden，Roy是2006年第六順位，Aldridge是同年榜眼而
Oden是2007年狀元﹝在此略過2005第6順位的Webster﹞；雷霆的核心是Durant﹝2007年
第二順位﹞、Green﹝2007年第五順位﹞和Westbrook﹝2008年第4順位﹞也許未來還會加
上Harden﹝2009年探花﹞。
波特蘭過去四年內有三個前六順位的籤，雷霆則是四個。
而今年六月過後，國王只有兩個。
的確，我們兩個中的一個叫做Tyreke Evans，另一個則有可能是John Wall或Evan
Turner，但如果我們想要第三個前六順位的話，還得再爛一年﹝不能超過26勝﹞，有人
會期待這個嗎？而且面對現實，Evans不是Durant，而且可能永遠都不會是Durant，我當
然期待Evans，但Durant是Lebron那一等級的，他已經不在地球上了，期待Evans在幾年
內趕上Durant或Lebron是不切實際的事。Reke很棒也很努力，是沙加緬度最閃亮的新星
，但他不是Durant。
The Blazers, meanwhile, have certainly not avoided paying substantial
salaries to supplementary players. The team did everything it could to keep
Darius Miles's $9 million 2009-10 salary off the books so the Blazers could
be the biggest players in free agency last summer. When that failed, Portland
made high-profile (and high-dollar) bids for Hedo Turkoglu (despite having
Nicolas Batum, Webster and Travis Outlaw at small forward) and Paul Millsap
(despite having Aldridge, Oden and Joel Przybilla up front) before settling
on Andre Miller (despite having Steve Blake at the point). When injuries
destroyed the front line, the team flipped for Marcus Camby; when he worked
out well, the team extended his contract two years to the tune of $20
million. Before making any additions this summer -- rookies, a mid-level
exception -- the Blazers are knocking on the 2010-11 luxury tax threshold.
That the Blazers have patiently built while avoiding paying veterans big
money is a complete myth. The Blazers made brilliant decisions to free up cap
space (the Zach Randolph deal, in particular) so a player like Miller could
be obtained, made great draft decisions in 2006, and lucked into a top-3 pick
in 2007. If Portland happened to have $20 million of cap space in 2007, do
you think Kevin Pritchard would have sat on it? Of course not! He did all he
could to get 2009 cap space, and spent every penny.
阿拓從不吝於開出豐厚的合約給替補球員，他們在2009-10球季想盡辦法要規避Darius
Miles九百萬的合約，好讓球隊去年暑假能成為最大買家，當他們失敗後，他們還是開
給Hedo Turkoglu﹝他們隊上的小前鋒已經有Nicolas Batum，Webster和Travis Outlaw﹞
和Paul Millsap﹝他們前場也已經有Aldridge、Oden和Joel Przybilla﹞高額合約，最
後他們簽下Andre Miller﹝控衛也有Steve Blake了﹞，當球隊禁區傷兵不斷時，他們
立刻換來Marcus Camby，Camby的表現獲肯定後，球隊也馬上和他簽下兩年兩千萬的延
長合約，在今年暑假簽下任何新秀或中產球員之前，拓荒者已經到達繳豪華稅的門檻。
別再相信阿拓很有耐心重建一直避免給老鳥高額合約這種沒有根據的說法，拓荒者很聰
明地清出薪資空間﹝譬如交易Zach Randolph﹞以便簽下Miller之類的球員，2006年選
秀選的很漂亮，2007年又很幸運地抽到狀元籤，如果拓荒者2007年就有兩千萬的薪資空
間，你認為阿拓總管Kevin Pritchard會在當年自由球員市場袖手旁觀？當然不可能，
他所做的一切就是清出2009年的薪資空間，然後花光每一分錢。
Oklahoma City's Sam Presti did forego 2009 cap space, however. The Thunder
had about $9 million, and Presti sat on it, instead letting his young squad
grow organically. (He eventually used a chunk of it to take Matt Harpring's
dead weight contract from Utah, saving the Jazz $6.5 million in luxury tax
and netting the Thunder Eric Maynor.)
But don't forget Presti's attempt to trade expiring contracts for Tyson
Chandler in February 2009. That would have put the Thunder over the cap
before July began, as Chandler made $11.7 million this season (with $12.6
million due in 2010-11). At the time of the near-trade, Durant was 20,
Westbrook was 20, Green was 22 -- the core was as young as could be. So much
for patience, right? Presti saw an opportunity to acquire a big-salary
player, and took it, before his team doctor found problems with Chandler's
foot and reversed the trade.
The Thunder have $19 million in cap space this summer. Who wants to bet
Presti won't be on the phone with the agents for any number of elite big men
on July 1?
雷霆隊總管Sam Presti放棄2009年的薪資空間去簽球員，他們有約九百萬美元的空間，
但Presti沒有出手，他選擇讓隊上的年輕球員有更多的成長空間。﹝他用了大部分空間
去吞下Matt Harpring的到期約幫助爵士規避六百五十萬美元的豪華稅，以便得到Eric
Maynor。﹞
但別忘了2009年二月Presti打算用到期約去換Tyson Chandler，Chandler的薪水高達
1170萬美元﹝2010-11為1260萬美元﹞將會讓雷霆在七月之前就超出薪資上限，當時
Durant二十歲，Westbrook二十歲，Green二十二歲，他們非常的年輕，而Presti很有耐
心？要不是隊醫發現Chandler的腳有問題而取消交易，雷霆就會吃下Chandler的合約。
雷霆今年暑假有一千九百萬美元的薪資空間，誰敢賭Presti七月一號不會打電話給各頂
級長人的經紀人。
Advocates of patience would argue the Kings aren't at the same level as the
Thunder, and that's obviously correct. The Kings won 25 games. The Thunder
are tied with the defending champs in the first round. Following that pattern
would leave the Kings looking for veteran additions no earlier than 2011.
But the Kings may not have the opportunity to add much in 2011, depending on
the league's labor dispute and the expected shrunken salary cap. The Kings
have $30 million committed for 2011-12, and that doesn't cover Spencer Hawes,
Carl Landry or the 2010 lotto pick (who will make $3-6 million that season).
There's a very serious chance that if the Kings don't add long-term salary
this offseason, they still wouldn't be able to in the two following seasons.
This offseason (and the 2011 trade deadline) grants the team its largest
opportunity to add a big-name player. If not now, there's a distinct
possibility it will never happen.
That isn't to say the team should necessarily bet the farm on one big player.
You still have to make smart decisions, sign the right player who fits with
the extant core (that'd be Evans and the lotto pick) well. (To that point,
what happens May 18 and June 24 matter a ton.) This is not a call to offer
Carlos Boozer $15 million, or David Lee $12 million. But the idea the Kings
are better off sitting out July completely is all out of whack, based on
blueprints falsified as myth. The Blazers and Thunder haven't gotten to the
postseason by sitting on their hands, and the Kings can't do that either.
(Note to readers from the future: if Hawes and Jason Thompson quickly morphed
into Oden and Aldridge, or Omri Casspi turned into Peja Stojakovic circa
1999, or Donte Greene realized The Prophecy, ignore this post.)
當然有人會說國王和雷霆的情況不能相提並論，國王今年只有25勝，而雷霆目前在季後
賽第一輪和去年冠軍打平，照這樣的說法來看國王的確不應該在今年急著撈魚。
但國王2011年暑假的機會不會比今年更好，新的薪資規則正在協商中，一般預期薪資空
間會被壓縮，國王2011-12的薪資總額約三千萬美元，但這不包含阿屁和藍錐的新合約以
及當年樂透新秀的合約﹝約在三到六百萬之間﹞，今年暑假﹝一直到明年的交易截止日
之前﹞可以說是國王釣大魚最好的機會，隨後兩年我們都不會再有這種機會，現在不做，
以後可能都沒機會。
當然不是說球隊一定要砸重金在頂級球員身上，球隊仍應該謹慎作決定，簽合適的球員
來搭配我們的核心﹝Evans和今年的樂透球員，因此五月十八和六月二十四日非常重要﹞
，沒有非要要國王花一千五百萬去簽Boozer或一千兩百萬去簽Lee，而是要球隊在七月
來臨時，能夠去考慮各種選擇，拓荒者和雷霆都不是靠姜太公釣魚進季後賽的，而國王
也不可能這樣做。
﹝ps.如果阿屁和小湯能快速進化成Oden和Aldridge，卡卡能有Peja於1999年的成績，
然後小綠照理想狀態成長，你就可以當我這篇文章在放屁。﹞
--
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◆ From: 118.167.177.228
推 Highflying:整篇文章最期待的就是P.S. 04/26 22:01
推 santabrelai:就怕等都等不到 04/26 22:04
推 hihi29:如果阿屁和小湯能快速進化成Oden和Aldridge 04/26 22:09
→ hihi29:怎麼辦 我看了竟然笑出來= = 04/26 22:09
推 Kshatri:XD 04/26 22:11
→ KillLakers:阿屁：這很簡單 我這就去DL躺著（誤） 04/26 22:11
→ KillLakers:小湯沒機會嗎?? 我比較不看好剩下三位達到作者標準.... 04/26 22:12
→ hihi29:小湯應該可以成為水準以上的禁區球員 .. 04/26 22:14
→ hihi29: 平均 04/26 22:14
→ hihi29:卡卡希望能長到有小王子顛峰期的實力XD 04/26 22:15
推 eliczone:應該是「他不是這個星球的人」 而不是不在地球上 04/26 22:26
推 eliczone:推啊 我也認為今年非常重要 再等也沒什麼機會了 04/26 22:27
→ kingpredrag:我知道阿，只是選自己比較順的翻法 04/26 22:27
推 eliczone:哈 OK 04/26 22:28
→ kingpredrag:謝謝版大幫我檢查^^ 04/26 22:30
推 eliczone::) 04/26 22:33
推 eliczone:這篇文章滿不錯的 提供一個很棒的角度來看國王的未來 04/26 22:34
→ kingpredrag:我也蠻喜歡這篇文章的，因為他講到我的盲點 04/26 22:38
推 Tmix:我好愛PS喔XD~ 04/26 22:58
推 kikijuice:講的很好 阿屁真的去DL躺比較快啦XD 04/26 23:54
推 sk050607:希望Hawes能開竅變成Gasol等級= = 04/26 23:57
推 RonArtest93:不過說實在沒必要跟別人比啊..... 04/26 23:59
→ RonArtest93:如果今年市場有我們需求的人 那錢是一定該花的 04/27 00:01
→ RonArtest93:但目前看來真的沒有 04/27 00:01
推 RonArtest93:阿拓的例子是在隊形成熟後才引進AM CAMBY 等戰力 04/27 00:04
→ RonArtest93:雷霆引進小錢 他們也是看準小錢的合約不長 04/27 00:04
→ RonArtest93:不然我相信也不敢貿然去賭 04/27 00:05
→ RonArtest93:最重要的原則不是時機好不好的問題 而是有沒有把握 04/27 00:06
→ RonArtest93:簽到進來以後真正有用的人 04/27 00:07
推 RonArtest93:最好是要有一定的戰績基礎背書 (ex: 35勝以上) 04/27 00:10
→ RonArtest93:再去考慮隊上要花大錢加強的地方 04/27 00:11
→ RonArtest93:不然就是剛才講的你很有把握可以融入球隊的人 04/27 00:12
→ RonArtest93:(EX: Marc Gasol) 再去花可能會好些 04/27 00:12
推 RonArtest93:Durant是Lebron那一等級的? 04/27 00:18
→ RonArtest93:要不要先跟Tracy McGrady 的生涯成績比一比 04/27 00:18
→ RonArtest93:一個球員看生涯穩定度來做準較好 04/27 00:22
→ RonArtest93:在我看來McGrady跟Durant這樣的得分機器出現的機率 04/27 00:25
→ RonArtest93:每幾年就會出現一個 並不怎麼希奇 04/27 00:26
→ RonArtest93:況且LBJ跟Durant的打法本身就有宰制力上的差別 04/27 00:27
推 hihi29:Durant未來會很棒 不過我覺得他目前還不到T-Mac在魔術拿 04/27 00:28
→ RonArtest93:什麼 "他已經不在地球上" 真是捧上了天了 04/27 00:28
→ hihi29:得分王時的等級 04/27 00:28
推 RonArtest93:恩,而且REKE,durant這兩個人的型就是不太一樣 04/27 00:32
→ RonArtest93:一個是每場30up 一個是偏向大三元製造機 04/27 00:33
→ RonArtest93:兩位都還年輕 等己年後論團隊成就的時候再來比也不遲 04/27 00:34
推 eliczone:LBJ還是比較威 未來reke也會同樣威 身材優勢不能忽略啊 04/27 00:42
推 kikijuice:我也覺得等球隊整體穩定 各司其職的時候 再針對弱點補強 04/27 00:44
→ kikijuice:當然要趁好時機補強也是沒錯 04/27 00:45
推 RonArtest93:REKE要看未來他自己 XD 但目前保守也會是個大三元機器 04/27 00:50
推 santabrelai:用盜版James拿回正版James 04/27 00:51
推 RonArtest93:reke的體能註定不會像LBJ那樣在防守上也能一直出現 04/27 00:52
→ RonArtest93:飛鍋 但是進攻上要達到一樣的效率水平倒是可以期待 04/27 00:53
→ RonArtest93:況且REKE的防守也算很好了 宰制力沒像LBJ那麼恐怖而已 04/27 00:54
推 hihi29:LBJ天生神力 不能比啊!! 04/27 00:56
推 domego:LBJ是MJ3.0版本 04/27 09:36
推 michaelch:聯盟中體能條件稱得上穿神裝開外掛的,大概就LBJ和KD兩個 04/27 12:53
推 RonArtest93:不認同 wade melo 04/27 13:02
→ RonArtest93:妙麗 甚至 因為個人或隊形因素今年打爛掉的Beasley 04/27 13:03
→ RonArtest93:先天條件上都不會差kd太多 04/27 13:04
→ RonArtest93:KD是因為暑假練的很勤 球隊的隊形也符合 加上沒有受傷 04/27 13:05
→ RonArtest93:所以今年整體成績呈現的出來很漂亮 04/27 13:06
推 RonArtest93:好吧 如果他能帶隊把湖人幹掉那就當我這篇嘴砲吧 XD 04/27 13:12
推 hihi29:KD除了臂展有開外掛外 其他項目應該都還不算外掛吧XD 04/27 13:32
推 michaelch:KD的外掛是他的"上臂長"!!!光是他把球端起來就清出多少 04/27 13:35
→ michaelch:空間?更別提投籃動作極容易要到犯規,灌籃也是剛起跳就能 04/27 13:35
→ michaelch:用上臂瞬間把球抬到可以塞進籃框的高度,加上他本身的速 04/27 13:36
→ michaelch:度和敏捷...就物理的角度來說佔有絕對優勢,所以我說唯二 04/27 13:37
→ michaelch:穿神裝的人...即使你肌力或協調度超好,那種身體骨架營造 04/27 13:38
→ michaelch:出的物理上的優勢,可以說是籃球規則的得利者 04/27 13:39
推 RonArtest93:但這類球員始終有運球重心過高的問題 遇到包夾突破 04/27 13:41
→ RonArtest93:不了就是一個很明顯的弱點 這點上臂展再長幫不了太多 04/27 13:42
→ RonArtest93:的忙 進攻方面最明顯只能在投籃出手上佔優勢而已 04/27 13:43
推 santabrelai:LBJ現在就像O'Neal二代 04/27 13:56
推 RonArtest93:如果單比骨架那魔獸不就無敵 臂展+彈速 因應禁區身存 04/27 13:58
→ santabrelai:在同位置的狀況下，他們總比對手更強壯、高大、快速 04/27 13:58
→ RonArtest93:比KD還多了噸位 理論上是要有O'Neal那種破壞力 04/27 13:58
→ santabrelai:又擁有優異的技巧，幾乎是無人可擋Orz 04/27 13:59
→ RonArtest93:但實際上卻不是這麼一回事 因為他就是缺少禁區腳步 04/27 13:59
→ RonArtest93:所以因為骨架的優勢而要犧牲多少協調性也必須算進去 04/27 14:00
→ RonArtest93:s.O'Neal也好 LBJ也罷 就是因為本身已經在身材上 04/27 14:02
→ RonArtest93:到達同位置的極限 但同時靈活度跟技巧又沒有失去 04/27 14:03
推 santabrelai:Kobe則像是努力的極致加上尚優的體能 04/27 14:03
→ RonArtest93:那才是真正的怪物 04/27 14:03
推 RonArtest93:當然我不是說KD或魔獸未來成就只有目前這樣 04/27 14:12
→ RonArtest93:他們還可以繼續苦練試著打破自己的極限 04/27 14:12
→ RonArtest93:但目前來說真的要跟剛才講的那兩隻相提並論在個人觀感 04/27 14:13
→ RonArtest93:上還有進步的空間 04/27 14:13
推 RonArtest93:另外我也厭惡媒體造神把每一年新冒出來mvp candidate 04/27 14:17
推 santabrelai:斷 ^^ 04/27 14:18
→ RonArtest93:大捧特捧一翻 實際上頗多言過其實的地方 04/27 14:19
推 nanogiant:我比較認同LBJ和Wade是穿了神裝的人 力量和敏捷兼具 XD 04/27 15:29
→ nanogiant:KD是因為很準 就像司機一樣 都屬於很難防的射手 04/27 15:30
→ nanogiant:如要說KD的手長是神裝的話 司機的身高應該也是吧 哈 04/27 15:30
推 RonArtest93:michaelch指的神裝應該是臂展長先天優勢已經讓KD 04/27 15:50
→ RonArtest93:得分跟喝開水一樣了 XD 04/27 15:51
推 si87073:我覺得TE的身高不夠高 3分球也還沒成熟 但切入還不錯 04/27 17:53
→ si87073:切入後的分球也可以期待 只是比較不能走LBJ KD KB那種路線 04/27 17:54
→ si87073:我覺得他還沒有瘋狂得分的能力 但每場有20分的水準有那麼 04/27 17:55
→ si87073:穩定 已經滿不錯了 派崔應該早就認定他不會是KD那種類型的 04/27 17:56
→ si87073:的球員 才會讓他轉往雙能衛發展 他和BENO的切入破壞力可以 04/27 17:57
→ si87073:期待 我覺得將來他們可以是球隊的雙箭頭 04/27 17:58
→ skcwebb:樓上 TE6呎6吋的身高打PG很高了吧...打SG也不矮阿... 04/27 21:14
→ skcwebb:3pt不準我同意 身高不夠完全不能認同.... 04/27 21:15
推 EX37:這些小鬼都照PS.的狀況成長 我會爽到口吐白沫 04/27 22:02
推 EX37:扣掉身材的話 KD真的沒有天身神力 跳得不是挺高 力氣也不大 04/27 22:06
推 EX37:對牙縫哥還是充滿期待啊 去年選前測試強姦一批待選PG 04/27 22:09
推 si87073:我是覺得他不像LBJ一樣高 在禁區比較沒有宰制力 04/30 20:29