[閒聊] Finally, a Definitive Answer on Jeremy

[Joba07 (騙人布)]

http://knickerblogger.net/finally-a-definitive-answer-on-jeremy-lins-contract-status/


While it pains me to basically just re-post what I originally posted five
days ago before I was convinced to edit my original piece, now that we have
apparently as definitive of an answer on the topic as we’re going to get
from the great Howard Beck from the New York Times, I figured it made sense
to share the situation (which, again, has finally been verified by Beck).

Here, then, is the contract status for Jeremy Lin…


Lin is not eligible for so-called “Early Bird Rights,” which means a player
that has played for a team for at least two years. In the NBA CBA, you can
transfer your Bird Rights if you were traded from one team to another. So if
Lin had been traded from the Golden State Warriors to the Knicks, the Knicks
would have his “Early Bird Rights.” However, since he was waived by the
Warriors, as soon as he was waived, his Bird Rights reset. Therefore, Lin
counts only as having played for the Knicks for one single season.

Landry Fields, having played for the Knicks for two years, has “Early Bird
Rights.” What it basically comes down is that the Knicks are allowed to go
over the cap to pay Fields anything up to the average salary (which is
roughly $5 million). Since Lin has no Early Bird Rights, the Knicks are not
allowed to go over the cap to re-sign him (besides a general raise of paying
him 125% of his current salary – this is an exception available to all free
agents in the NBA. Their current team can offer them a raise for the next
season of 120% of their current salary. For Lin that’d be roughly $1 million
(it is 125% for Lin since he is a restricted free agent, and your qualifying
offer for a restricted free agent has to be at least 125% of the player’s
current salary, so that is the bare minimum the Knicks can offer Lin for next
season – that extra 5% is no chump change).

Since the Knicks will be over the $58 million salary cap this offseason but
under the $70 million luxury cap, the Knicks will have access to both of the
major exceptions. The Bi-Annual Exception (which is roughly $2 million and
available, naturally enough, every other year – so long as you’re over the
cap and under the luxury cap) and the Mid-Level Exception, which is roughly
$5 million (available every year, provided you are over the cap and under the
luxury cap). They can pay Lin under either of the two.

Where the Knicks luck out is the fact that both Lin and Fields, since they’
re coming off their initial two-year contracts (while the Knicks did not gain
Lin’s Early Bird Rights, they at least did inherit his original two-year
contract), they are both restricted free agents this year. Not only that, but
they are governed by the so-called “Gilbert Arenas Provision.” This limits
the amount of money other teams can offer either Lin or Fields to a maximum
starting salary of the average NBA salary (roughly $5 million).

Since the Knicks own Fields’ Early Bird Rights, they can match any offer
without having to use their mid-level exception. However, since Lin does not
have Early Bird Rights, the Knicks would have to dip into their exceptions
(and almost certainly the mid-level) to match any offer sheet for Lin.

So the good news is that the Knicks are guaranteed to be able to keep both
Fields and Lin if they want to. The bad news is that if anyone makes an offer
of over $2 million to Lin, the Knicks would have to dip into their mid-level
exception to pay for it, therefore effectively nullifying the MLE as a tool
to sign a good free agent (like, say, Steve Nash). So they might be in a
situation where they would have to choose between Nash and Lin. Who would you
choose?

One tricky aspect of the Gilbert Arenas Provision is that teams could still
sign Lin to deals bigger than just the MLE times however many years (like 4
years/$20 million), they just can’t have the first two years be larger than
the MLE so that the Knicks cannot be outbid. The first year has to be for $5
million. However, if a team is, say, $11 million under the cap, they can
offer Lin a 4 year/$44 million contract (you have to be currently under the
cap by whatever the average yearly figure of the deal is). The first two
years would be for the MLE and then the last two years would be backloaded so
that the entire deal would average out to $44 million (so the first two years
would be $5 million a year and the last two years would basically have to be
$16 million a year each). It is highly unlikely that a team would throw such
backloaded payments into a deal, as it is not good for anyone’s salary cap,
but I can imagine a team figuring that it would be especially bad for the
Knicks, what with the increases in Melo and STAT and Chandler’s salaries in
three years. Imagine the luxury tax that the Knicks would have to pay! So do
not be surprised if a team tries to give Lin a deal for more than $5 million
a year. Still, if Dolan is willing to pay the luxury tax, then the Knicks
cannot be outbid.

So that’s pretty much it. The Knicks can keep both Fields and Lin, but if
they keep Lin, they are pretty much saying goodbye to any other notable free
agent. With the way Lin is playing, though, that is not such a bad thing.

Thanks to Larry Coon for his invaluable Salary Cap FAQ, which turned out to
be absolutely right on target (as it said “If a player is waived and is
claimed by another team before he clears waivers, then his Bird clock resets”
). And thanks to the aforementioned Howard Beck!

===================================================

另一個觀點  這篇作者認為尼克隊沒有早鳥權 要請高手指點一下

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※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) 
◆ From: 122.117.234.238
→ ilanese:Lin待在尼克或許會比較好，場外收入（廣告簽約金之類的）
→ ilanese:勢必會比他向尼克領的錢多很多。（我不是說這個球季，指下
→ ilanese:個球季之後。）
→ ilanese:比較重要的是Lin在尼克已經有一定的地位了，尼克前場陣容
→ ilanese:也是數一數二，他去別的球隊不一定打的會比在尼克來的好。
→ insachi:以最簡單的方法來看Lin的確能適應尼克的體系，去別隊戰術
→ insachi:不一定能讓他有所發揮。
→ yeswater:為了家鄉棄小牛選勇士 結果得到什麼? Lin早就看清現實了
→ yeswater:上帝給你這麼多曲折 讓你在NY獲得認同 一定有祂的目的
→ Joba07:這篇重點是 如果沒有早鳥權 又有球隊開高價 尼克為了要留人
→ Joba07:必須動用中產 如果有早鳥權 就不需要動到中產了
→ autechre:可以預期的是一定會有球隊開價讓尼克不能用MLE簽FA
推 MOJS:有沒有早鳥權部是最重要的，最重要的是他是RFA
→ Joba07:這篇就是寫沒有早鳥權的話 尼克就沒有中產去簽其他 FA 了
→ MOJS:#1FDXrfJc 參考一下