[外電] 是奧克拉瑪喔，好吧，那現在怎樣?

[sagesrock (人多就有白癡)]

Oklahoma City... OK, now what? 
是奧克拉瑪喔，好吧，那現在怎樣?

Brian Kamenetzky

Maybe the tenth ring granted him powers of clairvoyance? Just as Phil Jackson
predicted last week, the Oklahoma City Thunder have earned themselves a first
round date with the Lakers, thanks to their 103-95 loss in Portland Monday
night. On its face, the matchup appears favorable for the purple and gold, at
least if the media is to be believed.
Obviously we'll have plenty more to say about the pairing over the course of
the week, but it's never too early to poke it with a stick.

也許十顆冠軍戒指讓禪師擁有神奇的預測能力，就跟他預言的一樣，湖人輸給波特蘭之后
，雷霆隊順利挺進第一輪對上湖人。表面上，這是紫金軍團比較喜愛的對手，至少媒體是
這麼相信的。

很明顯，這個禮拜的賽程過後我們還有更多可以說的東西，但提早探討這個對戰組合卻也
永遠不會嫌早。


Among the first places observers will look for clues is the season series,
and sometimes much can be gleaned. Still, the results should always be taken
with a grain of salt, particularly in this case. Yes, L.A. took three of four
from OKC this year, but two of the three were by three points, one coming in
overtime. More importantly, the Lakers had the good fortune of seeing the
Thunder three times before Christmas.
L.A.'s 111-108 win over Kevin Durant's crew on December 22nd left Oklahoma
City 13-14 on the season. It was the last time they'd be under .500. Since,
the Thunder have gone 36-18, and it's fair to say the team taking the floor
Sunday won't be the one the Lakers dominated early in the season.

通常球評會把季賽的對決當作是首要的參考，有時也確實可以看出很多東西。雖然如此，
還是得加一點料才能看出事情的真實性，特別是在這個對戰組合。是的，湖人在今年四場
球賽贏了雷霆三場，但其中兩場贏球是在三分的差距內獲勝，而其中一場打到延長賽。更
重要的是，這三次對決都是在聖誕節之前。

Conversely, it's tempting to read too much into Oklahoma City's total
dismantling of the Lakers on March 26. The Lakers were horrible that night,
and would have been pounded by virtually any team in the league. Not to
discount what the Thunder did- those 48 minutes absolutely showed how
dangerous they can be and made a very solid impression on Kobe Bryant- but
much of that night's damage for the Lakers was self-inflicted.
The playoffs, as you may have heard, are a totally different animal anyway.
With that in mind, here are five factors regarding this matchup on each side
of the favorable/unfavorable ledger for the Lakers:

相反的，在三月二十六號雷霆把湖人擊潰的那個晚上，可以看出更多東西。湖人當晚糟透
了，噁爛到幾乎聯盟任何一支球隊都可以打垮他們的地步。平心而論，雖然雷霆當晚在四
十八分鐘內，紮紮實實地表現出他們是一支多危險的球隊，以及他們對Kobe的剋制能力，
但是當晚湖人之所以被打敗，是因為他們自己內部崩潰了。

就像你所知道的，季後賽是完全不同的東西。在這個前提之下，我們且來分析一下五項有
利與無利於湖人的因素:


Favorable for L.A.:
湖人的有利因素:

While it's possible to overrate experience in the playoffs, there's no
question it matters. The Thunder have virtually none of it, and will have to
open on the road against the defending champs.
There are signs the Thunder haven't quite figured out how to do the little
things needed to win tight games, losing 11 of 18 games decided by three
points or less. One can question how well they're holding up under the
spotlight, too. OKC has lost four of five down the stretch, including a
critical misstep against Golden State Sunday evening. (Note: In fairness, one
of those recent blemishes, a one-point loss to Utah in OT, probably should
have been a win. Durant was fouled on his game winning shot attempt and
should have gone to the line with a chance to win.)
Undeniably explosive, Durant and Russell Westbrook are both mistake prone as
well. They're currently third and fifth respectively in turnovers, and
Westbook's assist-to-turnover ratio ranks 31st in the league. The playoffs
are often about minimizing errors, something OKC's two best players will have
to prove they can do.

雖然我們有可能高估所謂的季後賽經驗，但在這裡沒問題，因為雷霆確確實實一場季後賽
都沒打過，而且他們要在客場面對這個衛冕冠軍隊。

從一些地方，可以看出雷霆還沒有找出贏得比分咬得很近的比賽的方法，在十八場差距只
有三分或以下的比賽，他們輸掉了十一場。他們在打到決勝期的五場比賽輸了四場，包含
禮拜天晚上對金州勇士隊一個爭議性走步的那場(註:公平來說，在最近輸掉的的球賽當中
，跟宅爵打到延長賽那場應該是會贏的。榴槤最後一擊被犯規了，如果上罰球線，就有機
會贏球的)。榴槤和西河是兩大失誤來源，他們最近是排名第三和第五的失誤王，而西河
的助攻/失誤比更排行聯盟第三十一位。這在差之毫釐失之千里的季後賽來說，減少失誤
是雷霆這兩個大將必須證明自己的事情。


Oklahoma City doesn't move the ball particularly well, sporting the ninth
worst assist rate in the NBA. As TrueHoop's Kevin Arnovitz noted in our media
poll post linked above: "If I'm the Lakers, I think I want OKC, in large part
because they're the easiest of the three teams to defend. When the Thunder
are stagnating, they have trouble moving the ball in the halfcourt (and don't
really have a pure "ball-mover" in their lineup). The Lakers' length will
compound that problem even further." In a seven game series where every
tendency is known, adjustments are constant, and points more precious, will
OKC be able to adjust?
You think L.A.'s bench has been unproductive? Try Oklahoma City's. The
Thunder are one of three teams in the NBA providing fewer points off the pine
than the Lakers. Beyond James Harden and the occasional contributions of Nick
Collison, they have almost no scoring in reserve. Serge Ibaka provides a
defensive presence, but it carpaccio-raw on the other end.

雷霆的球流動得並不好，助攻排名聯盟倒數第九。TrueHoop的Kevin Arnovitz說:[如果我
是湖人，我當然要打雷霆，很大原因是因為他們是那三支球隊裡面最好防守的。當雷霆打
不順的時候，他們的球在半場的流動就會很有問題(而他們的陣容裡還真的沒有讓球流動
的傢伙)。湖人陣容的高度會讓這個缺陷變得更大。]在七戰四勝的系列裡面，對手對你的
每個企圖都很了解，換人也很固定，而得分又那麼重要，雷霆有人可以換上來得分嗎?你
以為湖人的板凳都沒貢獻嗎?要不要看看雷霆的:雷霆的板凳是聯盟裡三支貢獻最少分數的
其中一個，比湖人的還糟。除了Harden和偶爾有貢獻的Collison，他們幾乎沒人能得分。
Ibaka防守很好，但是進攻毫無建樹。



Unfavorable for L.A.:
湖人的不安全因素 = =+:

Westbrook has had his way with the Lakers this season, averaging 17.5 points
and 8.3 assists, and shooting almost 47 percent, all above his season
averages. He is incredibly quick, aggressive, and talented. Given L.A.'s
well-documented struggles against quality (not just quick, but quality)
points, Westbrook presents a serious challenge.

西河先生(好像古代的文學家喔 XD)本季對戰湖人很有他的一套，平均17.5分8.3助攻，
0.47的命中率，都比他的季賽平均高。他快得嚇死人，充滿攻擊性和天賦。他以優質的得
分(不但快，而且優質)讓湖人陷入囧境，西河先生是個大威脅。


The Thunder may be young and rambunctious, but they've played at an elite
defensive level this year. Through Monday, they allow the second fewest
points per possession of any Western Conference team, behind only the Lakers.
But while the Lakers have slipped defensively over the course of the season,
OKC has improved.
In Thabo Sefalosha they have a player as capable of giving Kobe trouble as
anyone in the league. He has the quickness to stay in front of Bryant, and
with some serious go-go-Gadget arms, the length to disrupt Kobe's jumper as
well. It's not a question of Sefalosha being a "Kobe stopper," but his skill
on that end of the floor allows coach Scott Brooks far more flexibility than
might otherwise have. In any playoff series with the Lakers, among the first
questions asked is always "Who will guard Kobe?" The Thunder have a viable
answer.

雷霆既年輕又狂野，但他們本季打出優質的防守水準。到禮拜一為止，他們對對手每次進
攻得分的限制，在西區僅次於湖人隊。但是在湖人的防守越來越崩潰的同時，雷霆卻越來
越進步。Thabo Sefalosha是聯盟裡最能給Kobe找麻煩的球員之一，他有很快的速度可以
一直守在Kobe前面，而他也有延展性很好的雙臂，可以在Kobe跳投時給他很大的干擾。我
們不是在說Thabo有沒有資格成為一個Kobe stopper，但是他在這方面的才能確實讓Scott
教練有更大的調度本錢。在任何可能對戰湖人的系列，問到[誰可以防守kobe?]，雷霆有
一個很可行的答案。

Defending the Thunder is more than simply stopping Durant and Westbrook. In
Jeff Green and Harden Oklahoma City has other weapons at its disposal. Even a
guy like Nenad Krstic, despite perhaps the worst hair in the NBA, can provide
offensive support via a solid perimeter shot assuming he's healthy (knee) for
the start of the series. (If he's not, the Thunder are much thinner up front,
always a problem against the Lakers, particularly if Andrew Bynum is good to
go come Sunday. And it's not like Krstic is Dwight Howard defensively,
either. He's exploitable, as is Collison, on that end.)
For a young team, the Thunder are very balanced in their home/road splits.
26-14 at Ford Center, 24-18 everywhere else. Impressive numbers indicating
they may not freak out Sunday taking the floor in Game 1.

要防住雷霆，光守住榴槤和西河是不夠的。他們還有Jeff Green和Harden這兩把武器。就
算是Krstic這個聯盟髮型最醜的傢伙，如果他膝蓋夠健康，也可以在中距離投射方面給湖
人帶來足夠的威脅。(但如果他沒吃阿蓋，那雷霆面對湖人的鋒線時就瘦弱多了，尤其
Bynum還可以在禮拜天趕得回來的話。而且Krstic又不是魔獸那種防守悍將，他在防守方
面就跟Collison 一樣，太好吃了。)
對一個年輕的球隊來說，雷霆在主場(26勝14負)和客場(24勝18負)的戰績是相當平衡的。
這個漂亮的數據顯示，在禮拜天第一場的球賽他們未必就一定輸了。

Overall, it's a matchup where almost every intangible favors the Lakers, but
some of the more tangible stuff makes OKC a scary squad. Brooks' crew didn't
get here simply on flash and athleticism. They play hard, play D, and have
shown some poise throughout the season.
More than the Spurs or Blazers, the Thunder represent a wild card in the
opening round. Of course, the greatest wild card is probably the Lakers
themselves. Who will be healthy? How will they play? Is this a group able to
put the pieces together well enough to escape a potentially tough series and
build towards something bigger?
I think they'll be ok, but the Lakers long ago tossed certainty out the
window. But even with their troubles, I don't see how the Thunder beat the
Lakers four times in seven tries.
Next year, though, the Lakers might want to avoid these guys.

總的來說，這是個在很多無形的因素來說對湖人是有利的，但是在很多看得到的層面來講
，雷霆又是可怕的對手。Scott教練的團隊會打進季後賽，靠的不是球風花俏或是體能很
好，他們打得夠拼，努力防守，而且整季都透露著一股沉穩的大將之風。

比起馬刺對拓荒者，雷霆是第一輪的大野馬。當然，最大的王牌還是湖人。誰會保持健康
? 怎麼打? 他們有辦法把自己整合好，通這個可能會非常難熬的系列，讓自己變得更強大
嗎?

我想他們應該是可以的，但他們必須早點把贏定了的心態拿掉。就算雷霆可以帶給湖人那
麼多麻煩，我也不認為他們可以幹掉湖人四場。

不過明年，湖人恐怕就會想要躲過這些傢伙了。





---
附一點個人想法:
我覺得如果湖人拿得下第一場和第二場，那就有可能4:1結束系列，如果兩場輸一場
，那打到4:3都不一定。
如果湖人無法4:1甚至4:0幹掉他們，爭取足夠的休息時間的話，我覺得打不到冠軍賽
，甚至第二輪就會下馬。傷兵因素太可怕了。

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◆ From: 218.168.234.201
推 kingoffighte:頭推
推 Kreen:推～
推 spipipi:推!!
推 scottiting:not just quick, but quality >> 不但快,還優質
推 SureHappy:上色要每一行都上比較不會失真 不然可以用軟體幫忙XD
→ sagesrock:好~
※ 編輯: sagesrock       來自: 218.168.234.201      (04/17 02:31)
推 kb81:你的個人想法只是讓我更加地崩潰而已，不要加油好嗎！？
推 benson:推~
推 a90148: 問一下 是凌晨三點直播嗎..期中考考慮要不要跟中
推 ken52039:對 凌晨三點 湖人>期中考
推 a90148:會有連結嗎 還是pps直撥就有? 因為平常連結我都看不到.
→ ken52039:不曉得 期待會有veetle
推 kb81:緯來怎麼不延播啊Orz
推 gn01737500:然後延畢了囧"
推 LAriza:比較在意下一輪對手