[翻譯] The Kobe Assist

[oliver031 (oliver)]

原文:http://ppt.cc/d-NN

在FB上面看到朋友轉貼這篇文章，念著念著覺得挺有趣的，就心血來潮把他翻譯的出來，
想說練習一下中文，順便騙騙P幣(不然都沒有錢參加板上聚賭了QQ)。 文章很長，而且我
是全文翻譯，所以文風可能會對板友來說很不習慣(以前念英文不覺得，真的翻譯過才感
受到中英文風差這麼大)

這篇文章是很有趣的一篇文章，雖然我個人覺得這不是一篇很有說服力的文章，大家看看
吧，有翻錯的地方請多指教。



The Kobe Assist

Introducing a new NBA statistic that proves that missing shots is sometimes
just as valuable as making them

By Kirk Goldsberry on December 6, 2012

Late in the second quarter of the Kings and Lakers game on October 21,
something ordinary but deceptively important happened. With the Lakers in
their half-court set, Dwight Howard set one of his monstrous picks along the
right wing to free up Steve Nash, who has led the NBA in assists six of the
last eight seasons. Nash used the screen to get past Isaiah Thomas and head toward the right
corner; he took one dribble with his right hand toward the corner, switched
directions, employed a crossover, and by the time his second dribble arrived
back up in his left hand he'd landed near the right elbow with the Kings
defense collapsing upon him. He recognized this immediately and launched a
beautiful left-handed pass in midstream to the left wing, where Kobe Bryant
awaited. Kobe was wide-open; he caught the ball and shot without hesitation.
He missed, and despite the great screen by Howard and the great playmaking by
Nash, this beautiful basketball sequence was seemingly fruitless. Nash would
not get his assist.


在10/21/12 Kings 對 Lakers 的比賽第二節末，Nash在Howard screen掉防守者Isaiah
Thomas後溜搭到右側底角，再換個方向溜到罰球線右側附近，就當Kings的球員都把注意
力放在Nash身上時，他用一個漂亮的左手傳球把球傳給處於空檔的Kobe，Kobe毫不猶豫的
就把球給投出去了。球沒進。Kobe的失手使的Howard和Nash的一連串的nice play看起來
都毫無意義，Nash也沒拿到他的助攻。


However, while Nash was busy playmaking and while Kobe was busy jump
shooting, Dwight Howard had taken about seven steps toward his happy place —
 the restricted area — fought off the gigantic DeMarcus Cousins, and gained
optimal rebounding position. Kobe's miss ricocheted upward from the rim
before descending back down into the hands of Howard, who quickly put the
ball in the basket; the Staples crowd went wild (in the dark). Did Kobe just
miss a shot or did he just inadvertently set up Dwight Howard for an easy
score? Are some of Kobe's missed shots actually good for the Lakers? Are some
of his misses kind of like assists?


然而，當Nash在忙著找人和Kobe的忙著跳投的同時，Howard已經偷偷溜回到禁區，擠開
Cousins，並取得有利的籃板位置。在Kobe打鐵的同時，Howard搶到籃板球，並順手把球
給扔進籃框裡，整個Staple Center也在此時陷入瘋狂中。


在這整個Play裡，Kobe只是很單純的miss嗎? 他是否無意中在打鐵的同時給Dwight一個極
好的得分機會? 又或許他的missed shots在某種程度上是對球隊有利的? 或許在某種程度
上他的missed shots可以算是一種助攻?


Basketball is a game of sequences. Unlike baseball or football, it is a
relatively continuous free-flowing sport. The actions within a game are hard
to separate because they are chronologically intertwined, and every event in
every game is influenced in part by preceding sequences of actions. Every
game is its own ecosystem characterized by teamwork, athleticism, and
frequent episodes of magnificence. But the same things that make basketball
so captivating to watch also make it more difficult to measure and to analyze.


籃球比賽是由無數的連在一起的play組成的。跟棒球或美式足球不同，籃球比賽中的自由
度跟流暢度皆高於前兩者；在前一個playㄧ定會影響後一個play的情況下，你很難將籃球
硬分成無數的獨立的小細節。這也是為甚麼籃球比賽之所以令人著迷，但這也使的籃球比
賽更難量化跟分析。


Most basketball statistics refer to discrete events such as shots, steals,
and rebounds that occur within the continuous context of a flowing game.
Basketball is very different from baseball, but in the basketball analytics
world, too often we treat our sport as if it were baseball; we kid ourselves
and say a rebound or a corner 3 is akin to a strikeout or a home run, a
singular accomplishment achieved by a player that's fit for tallying and
displaying in a cell on some spreadsheet on some website.


大部分的籃球統計項目專注於那些獨立的事件，像是投籃，抄截，籃板球，即使這些東西
不過是整個比賽的flow的一部分。籃球跟棒球的性質完全不同，但是現在的籃球統計項目
似乎更像是為為棒球比賽設計的；我們會開玩笑說一個籃板球或是一個底角三分就像是一
個三振或是全壘打------ 一個完全由一個球員獨力打出來的------你知道的，方便統計
嘛。


But, unfortunately, it's not that simple. In reality we all know crediting a
wide-open corner 3 solely to Matt Bonner, Kawhi Leonard, or Danny Green is
akin to giving Javier Bardem sole credit for No Country for Old Men. Bonner,
Leonard, and Green get great looks because of the splendidly directed,
infinitely complex ecosystem that is the San Antonio Spurs offense. Over the
last two seasons Matt Bonner has made 210 out of 480 3-point attempts (44
percent), which is incredible. However, how would these numbers differ if he
played for the Wizards? Corner 3s are more like touchdowns than they are like
strikeouts. They are punctuation marks at the end of complex strategic
sentences. We may be really good at tallying those punctuation marks, but we
are not so good at diagramming or even understanding those sentences; within
our box scores and spreadsheets we are failing to give credit where it is due.


但是在現實中，籃球比賽遠沒有那麼簡單。就像在Spurs比賽中，Bonner, Leonard,
Green命中的空檔三分的時候，你不可能把功勞全部都歸給他們自己。 他們會有空檔，那
是因為Spurs既明瞭又複雜的進攻體系的功勞。在過去兩季中，Bonner的三分命中率是驚
人的210-480(44%)，但那是因為他在Spurs，不然你把他扔到Wizards去看看? 底角三分更
像是一次美式足球中的達陣，而不是棒球的三振----它們更像是一系列戰術的尾聲。我們
往往過於重視這個尾聲，而忽視了真正的重點，也因此我們常常忽略掉ㄧ些重要的貢獻。


Just as the theoretical butterfly flapping its wings in Rio somehow
influences the formation of a faraway hurricane, basketball outcomes exhibit
sensitive dependence on previous environmental conditions, yet the analytical
"baseball-ification" of our fluid sport too often neglects this basic tenet
of basketball ecology. We disregard too much environmental context. As an
illustration of how this baseball-ification of basketball ecology can hinder
our understanding, consider the Kobe Assist, those missed shots that are more
like accidental passes that lead to put-backs.


籃球一次攻防中的結果，往往跟攻防中人跟球的每一個流動息息相關。然而，籃球數據分
析的「棒球化」卻忽略掉了這個最基本的前提。舉個例子：當Kobe打鐵、Howard撿子彈後
補進的時候………..


酸民A：老大又打鐵啦!!!


酸民B:  老大解套啦~


酸民C:  沒撿到子彈嘎獸你自盡吧  (嘎獸:咦?)


說來說去，就是Howard撿到子彈跟easy-score都是Kobe運氣好。(對不起嘎獸你躺槍了)


Jump shooters are the butterflies of the NBA, and each time a shooter
releases a shot, a fascinating sequence begins to unfold. Depending on who is
shooting, where on the court they are shooting from, the stratagems of each
team, the rebounding abilities of each player, and the precise spatial
configuration of the 10 players on the court, shot outcomes vary
considerably. On the imaginary road map to a shot's outcome, the first fork
in the road is the most important: Did the shot go in, or did it not go in?
This is a vital and obvious thing to measure, and we do this pretty well with
things like field goal attempts, field goals made, and field goal percentage.
However, a shot's story arc does not begin at its release nor does it always
end at the hoop. What happens after a missed shot is very important and
directly related to the same set of environmental conditions on the floor
that provided both the original context for the shot and the influential
factors that determine what happens next. Conventional basketball metrics
segment continuity too much. We quarantine the chicken from the egg; we divvy
basketball events so much that we ignore obvious relationships between
shooting environments and shot outcomes.


跳投的人就像是蝴蝶效應中的蝴蝶：當皮球從手中輕輕拋出的那一瞬間，投球的人、投球
的地點、該隊的進攻體系、場上每一個人的籃板能力、場上十個球員的相對空間散佈，都
將決定ㄧ連串的play將如何展開。當然，第一個最重要的問題就是：球進了沒? 這項數據
當然很好計算(FGA,FG, FG%)，但你如果以為到這邊就end的話你就錯了，打鐵之後的事情
也同樣重要。同時，投籃時的場上情況基本上也就是打鐵時的場上情況(也就是說，你的
投籃選擇不僅僅是決定你的命中率，同時也決定你失手之後，隊友撿不撿的到子彈，或是
被對方快攻等等。) 傳統的數據分析太容易將比賽過程弄得支離破碎，就像你把雞跟蛋分
開，而不去研究是雞生蛋還是蛋生雞一樣，我們也常常忽略掉「跳投命中與否」跟跳投當
下的「場上情況」所衍生出來的各種關係。


Missed shots are kind of like informal jump balls that happen dozens of times
per game. Instead of a referee gently tossing the ball up in the air, some
random ricochet off of the basket breaks the bad news to the offense, propels
the ball skyward, and for a few moments the ball is disowned and its
possession is literally up for grabs. But just like shot outcomes, rebounding
outcomes also depend on who is shooting, where they are shooting from, the
stratagems of each team, the rebounding abilities of each player, and the
precise spatial configuration of the 10 players on the court; as a result,
there is a less apparent tenet of basketball: All missed shots are not
created equal, and their DNA is inherently dependent upon their ancestral
events — some missed shots are good for the defensive team, and some benefit
the offense, as many misses actually extend offensive possessions with the
proverbial "fresh 24."


你可以把打鐵看成是一種跳球----除了不是裁判負責扔----總之就是球在空中大家搶。但
是如前所述，有很多因素決定最後的結果，但是最重要也最基本的一個就是：打鐵本身。
有的missed shot 有利於防守方，有的有利於進攻方，而後者通常導致新的進攻24秒。


This is where the Kobe Pass — a necessary predecessor to the Kobe Assist —
 comes into play. I define the Kobe Pass as the missed shot that begets an
offensive rebound and thus extends an offensive possession. Of course,
offensive rebounds are an important statistic on their own, but sole credit
for an offensive rebound is traditionally awarded to the player who acquires
the rebound. Little else is considered. We conceptualize them as destinations
but ignore their origins. Where do offensive rebounds come from?


從這邊我就可以開始介紹所謂的「Kobe Pass」-「Kobe Assist」的前身。我對Kobe Pass
的定義就是打鐵----創造出進攻籃板+新的進攻24秒的打鐵。當然，進攻籃板本身就是一
項非常重要的數據，但是進攻籃板通常都把功勞歸給撿到子彈的球員，而其它皆不考慮。
這邏輯上有一定的問題，你以為進攻籃板從哪來的? 打鐵啊!


Offensive rebounds are constructive offensive events that frequently result
in a big basketball player possessing the ball very close to the goal. They
are like surreptitious but extremely effective entry passes. In fact,
league-wide, 34 percent of the time Kobe Passes result in points right away
because the recipient of the Kobe Pass, a.k.a. the offensive rebounder,
frequently scores immediately after acquiring the basketball. In such cases,
I define the Kobe Assist as an achievement credited to a player or a team
missing a basket that in a way leads directly to the kind of field goal
generally referred to as a put-back, tip-in, or follow.


由於進攻籃板通常是由距離籃框近的大個子搶到，所以其實可以想像成一種極為有效的傳
球。事實上，在整個NBA中，有34%的Kobe-Pass通常可以直接轉換成得分：大個子在搶到
進攻籃板之後，通常可以直接得分。在這種情況下，Kobe-Assist可以定義成
missed-shots=>offensive rebounds=>put-backs/tip-in/follow.(按: put-back是指搶
到籃板後，在沒有運球的情況下得分，follow就有請板上神人講解了)


Many times these field goals shape the outcomes of basketball games, but we
neglect to consider what exactly they follow. We fail to explore the
interactions between shot events and put-backs. We fail to understand which
shooting environments are most or least conducive to offensive rebounds. We
only kind of know which players' and teams' missed shots are most likely to
result in put-backs. Most important, we have no idea who leads the NBA in
Kobe Assists.


很多時候這種play會影響到比賽的結果，但是我們卻沒有去思考它們從何而來，也沒有探
索投籃本身跟put-backs中的的關係，也不能理解甚麼樣的場上情勢會最有利/不利於撿子
彈。我們只大概知道那個球員跟球隊的打鐵最容易轉換成put-backs。最重要的是，我們
不知道誰在Kobe-Assist上領先群雄。


Spoiler alert: Kobe Bryant is the king of the Kobe Assist and hence its
namesake. Over the last two seasons, Kobe had more than 200 Kobe Assists,
which is by far the most in the league and also precedes the arrival of
Dwight Howard, the most dominant interior presence in the NBA. The
combination of one of the league's most voluminous and creative jump shooters
with the league's most dominant interior force will only proliferate the Kobe
Assist phenomenon in L.A.


好吧，雷你一下，Kobe 就是 Kobe-Assist的王者(按:這哪算雷阿)，在過去兩季中，Kobe
總共傳出了超過200次的Kobe-Assist----這甚至是在Howard還沒有來到L.A.之前。可以想
像，現在Howard 這位撿子彈達人來到Lakers，Kobe 的Kobe-Assist只會更多不會更少。


While Kobe haters may delight in the idea that many of Kobe's best passes are
actually his missed shots, I would suggest that these folks temper their
delight because, like it or not, these passes are effective. I would also
argue that many times Kobe Assists are not as accidental as they may seem; in
fact, the belief that these outcomes are "lucky" or these bounces are
"fortuitous" diminishes the considerable skills required for an offensive
team to extend a possession or score those critical "second chance" points. A
16-foot jumper during a fast break is a horrible shot in part because there
is little chance a teammate is present in case you miss; that same jumper in
a half-court set when Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol are on your team and near
the basket is nowhere near as foolish. The latter is the actual shooting
environment in Los Angeles; this is the ecosystem where Kobe Bryant lives.


科黑們，雖然可以想像到你們會因此而高潮-「Kobeㄧ些最棒的傳球竟然就是打鐵!」，我
還是奉勸各位別太高興---畢竟它們還挺有效的。另外，很多時候Kobe-Assists並不是像
它表面呈現出的那樣幸運----如此的話你就會太低估「團隊子彈學」這門學問了。就像是
快攻中你腦充血決定來個16呎跳投，這就是腦殘，因為快攻中不會有太多隊友幫你撿子彈
；另一方面，當你在半場攻防時，有雙塔壓陣，此時16呎跳投就未必是個錯誤選擇---這
就是Kobe最常在場上碰到的情況。


As a general rule, NBA offenses rebound 32 percent of their misses. But this
number is not homogeneous league-wide; it depends on the team, the shooter,
and many other variables — especially team priorities. The Celtics, who
famously prioritize transition defense over offensive rebounding, only
rebound 23 percent of their misses, while the high-flying and physical Denver
Nuggets capture 42 percent of their missed shots. The Lakers prioritize
offensive rebounds, and given their personnel that makes a lot of sense for
them.


ㄧ般來說，NBA的投失球有32%的機會會被進攻方搶到。當然，每支隊伍都不一樣，這個數
據依隊伍，投籃者，和其他各種因素而不同---特別是戰術原則。老賽這項數據只有23%，
那是因為他們寧可放棄進攻籃板也不要被人快攻；而體能勁爆的的Nuggets則有42%。L.A.
則以搶進攻籃板優先----有雙塔嘛。


As of November 30, Kobe has attempted 289 shots. He has missed 146 of them,
but the Lakers have retained possession on 50 of those misses. Furthermore,
the Lakers have immediately converted 22 of those 50 offensive rebounds into
points. So far this year, Kobe has 22 Kobe Assists, which trails only Dion
Waiters and Carmelo Anthony. You might be saying, "Well, since Kobe shoots so
much, this isn't that special." Not so fast — 15 percent of Kobe's misses
immediately lead to Lakers put-backs, which is much higher than the league
average. In comparison, Dallas's Vince Carter has missed over 100 shots and
only has three Kobe Assists all year. The Lakers have a smarter, more
responsive jump-shooting environment than almost any other team in the NBA.


截至11/30/12，Kobe的FTA是289，他共投失了146球。在這146球中，Lakers保留了其中50
次的球權，其中22次直接變成了Kobe-Assists，讓他在這項統計上僅落後於Dion Waiters
和Carmelo Anthony。你或許會覺得Kobe 投那麼多籃沒甚麼了不起----先別那麼急著下定
論，Kobe有15%的missed-shot是直接轉換成Lakers put-backs的---這項數據遠高於聯盟
平均。你看看隔壁的Vince Carter---投失超過一百球也不過只有3個Kobe-Assists---
Lakers有著幾乎是全NBA最友善的跳投環境。


But some of Kobe's misses are even more "effective" than others. So far this
season, Kobe has taken 107 close-range shots (within 7.5 feet). He's made 59
percent of them, which is very good, but what is scary is that of his 44
misses in this zone, the Lakers have rebounded 52 percent of them, and
immediately put back 32 percent of them. Breaking it down this way raises
provocative questions about how we evaluate shooting in the NBA. Out of 100
close-range Kobe shots, 59 go in and 41 miss. Of those 41 misses, the Lakers
grab 21 of them; the defense grabs only 20 of them. This means 80 percent of
Kobe's close-range shots either result in immediate points or a "fresh 24."
Furthermore, out of those 44 misses, 14 will become "put-backs" — so, out of
100 close-range Kobe shots, 59 immediately find the net and 14 more find the
net within seconds of being rebounded by a Laker; 73 percent of Kobe's
close-range shot attempts become points for the Lakers within five seconds.


其實，即使是Kobe自己的各式各樣的打鐵中，也有ㄧ些是「更有效」。本季中，Kobe嘗試
了107的近距離投籃(<=7.5英呎)，命中率59%，另外有21%的機率會被Lakers撿到進攻籃板
----也就是說，Kobe的近距離投籃有高達80%會直接得分，或是一次全新的24秒。另外，
那41%的打鐵率中，會有14%會直接變成put-backs---也就是說，Kobe的近距離投籃有73%
會直接得分，或是打鐵後五秒內再由其他人投進。


Around the league this season, there are other examples of effective misses.
Cavs rookie Dion Waiters provides a fascinating case. He's making 36 percent
of his 3s so far this season, which is average, but incredibly the Cavs have
rebounded 35 of his 54 misses (65 percent) from beyond the arc. Elsewhere,
the Knicks put back close-range misses by Carmelo 35 percent of the time. Of
course, these high numbers have a lot to do with Anderson Varejao and Tyson
Chandler, who are both dominant rebounders, but it's not that simple. The
presence of a dominant rebounder does not ensure Kobe Assists. The Rockets
have only put back 8 percent of James Harden's 147 missed shots this season
despite the presence of Omer Asik, the league's third leading rebounder. Kobe
Assists also depend on shot location. Although the Knicks love to rebound and
put back Carmelo's close-range misses, they very rarely put back any of
Carmelo's mid-range misses, and Knicks fans' subconscious knowledge of this
may explain their groans about mid-range Melo. By conventional numbers,
Carmelo is a fairly average jump shooter and a slightly above-average
close-range scorer, but when we look more broadly at the basketball sequences
these numbers take on a completely different tone. The Knicks rebound 55
percent of his close-range misses but only 14 percent of his mid-range
misses. When he is close to the basket, good things happen that field goal
percentage will never be able to explain. All Carmelo misses are not created
equal.


當然，NBA中不乏這類的高手，騎士隊的新人Dion Waiters就是ㄧ例。Waiters的三分命中
率為36%，大概就是平均水準(按:那湖人去年就該全部去跳海算了)。有趣的是，騎士隊幫
他撿了65%的子彈。另一方面，Knicks也幫甜瓜搶了35%的他的近距離打鐵。當然，這些數
字得益於Varejao跟拳王兩位撿子彈高手，但也有別的原因。隊中有籃板高手並不是
Kobe-Assist的保證---看看火箭隊吧，他們有Omer Asik，但Harden的子彈只有8%被重新
上膛並命中紅心。Kobe-Assists也決定於跳投的位置---Knicks常常put-back Melo的近距
離失手，但遠距離就是另一回事了，這大概也解釋了為甚麼Knicks球迷一看到Melo中距離
出手便大聲哀嚎。從傳統的數據來看，Melo只是一個平均水準的中距離、稍高於水平的近
距離得分手，但如果我們把樣本本身的時間拉長(i.e.考慮出手後的結果)，那就是一個完
全不同的面貌。Melo有55%的近距離打鐵被回收，相對著他中距離的只有14%。也是就是說
，當他接近籃框時，他所帶來的威脅是FG%不能夠解釋的。


As another example, consider the cases of Elton Brand and Derrick Rose.
Conventional wisdom suggests Elton Brand is a better mid-range shooter than
Derrick Rose. Over the last two seasons Elton Brand made 381 out of his 782
mid-range jumpers (49 percent). This is really impressive because as a whole
the league shoots only 38 percent from mid-range. During the same window,
Derrick Rose made 294 of his 724 mid-range shots (41 percent), which isn't
bad, but it's much closer to average than to elite. Again, field goal
percentage does not tell the whole story. The Bulls rebounded 152 of Rose's
430 misses (35 percent), while the Sixers rebounded only 63 of Brand's 401
misses (16 percent). Looking at these shots through another lens, 62 percent
of Rose's mid-range shots result in points or a fresh possession for the
Bulls. For Brand, 57 percent of his mid-range shots result in points or a
fresh possession for the Sixers. Which is better?


另一個例子則是Elton Brand跟Derrick Rose。 傳統的數據告訴我們過去兩季Brand是比
Rose更好的中投手(Brand:49%, Rose:41%, NBA平均:38%)，同樣的，FG%還是沒有告訴我
們全部的真相，Bulls幫Rose撿了35%的子彈，76人只有16%。也就是說，Rose有62%的中投
要嘛直接得分或是全新的24秒，Brand只有57%，你說誰行?


The Rose-Brand comparison suggests that by appending offensive rebounding
rate or put-back rate to field goal percentage we can more accurately assess
a shot's true value. Every time a shot is released, a potential change of
possession gets its wings. An additional reason close-range shots are more
effective than mid-range shots is that, when missed, they are rebounded by
the offensive team at much higher rates; in other words, they kill
possessions at lower rates than jump shots.


Rose-Brand對比告訴我們：你要在FG%後面加上OR% 或是put-back%才能準確的計算出一個
shot的價值。每一次球一離手，球權的歸屬都是未定。這也給了ㄧ個為什麼近距離出手比
中投更有威脅的理由：一旦失手，近距離更容易被進攻方給搶到。


You can also think of Kobe Assists as delayed makes. This way it's also easy
to reevaluate an individual shooter's shooting efficiency. Our dominant
shooting analytic is field goal percentage, which is essentially the number
of made shots per 100 attempts. Well, if we extend our temporal window of
analysis to account for these delayed makes, we can start to make interesting
new inferences about overall shooting efficiency.


你也可以把Kobe-Assists想成是一個delayed的進球。如此的話我們可以更容易的去評價
一個射手的效率。我們現在主流的數據是FG%，但是如果我們把時間軸拉長，把這些
delayed的進球考慮進去的話，我們會有一個更有趣的投籃效率統計。


Every offensive rebound comes from somewhere. More specifically, every
offensive rebound follows a missed shot that was attempted by an offensive
player somewhere on the court. By neglecting to evaluate the contrails of
offensive rebounding events, we shortchange our understanding of the game.
Take, for example, the game's best pure rebounder, Kevin Love, who has
recently become a more prolific 3-point shooter. However, when Love takes a
3-point shot he is obviously not in a great rebounding position. As a result,
Love's 3-point attempts elicit fewer offensive rebounds and Kobe Assists than
those of his teammates. Over the past two seasons, the Wolves have rebounded
their own 3-point misses 26 percent of the time. But this number for Love is
20 percent — it's 30 percent for Luke Ridnour. So, while looking at the
surface of field goal percentage, Kevin Love seems to be a decent 3-point
shooter, but when we examine the sequential nature of the Timberwolves'
3-point shooting his attempts are less efficient than many of his teammates.


每個進攻籃板都來自於一個從球場某處投出來的missed shot，如果我們忽略掉進攻籃板
之後的事件，我們便不能完整的理解比賽。拿Kevin Love作例子，這個聯盟中最好的籃板
手最近特別熱衷於三分球，但是很明顯的，他在投三分球的時候，他並不處於最佳的籃板
位置，也因此，他的三分球並不會有大量的OR或是Kobe-Assists。過去兩季中，Wolves回
收了26%的三分失手，Love的這項數據只有20%---Luke Ridnour是30%。也因此，如果我們
只看Love的3pt FG%，他是個不錯的三分手。但如果把打鐵之後的事件給考慮進去後，他
的3pt attempt似乎並沒有比他的隊友來的有效率。


Although the smartest basketball analysts evaluate success by possessions,
for the most part the temporal extent of basketball analysis remains too
narrow. Anyone who has ever acknowledged that the "assist" has some value has
therefore admitted that basketball outcomes exhibit sensitive dependence on
the events immediately preceding them. But this concept goes well beyond
passing, is central to basketball strategy, and is part of what separates
basketball from other games we love to measure. Baseball analytics had its
epiphany in part because Bill James and others realized that baseball was
only barely a team sport, and really could be reduced to a discrete sequence
of outcomes that involved singular players competing in sequences of
one-on-one scenarios. But basketball achievements do not occur in a vacuum;
just as it is rare for one player to be solely responsible for a made basket,
it is similarly rare for one player to be solely responsible for other types
of events, including rebounds and put-backs.


即使以球權作為統計的單位是現在的最好辦法，在大部分時候用單次球權內的攻防來評價
攻守效率仍嫌不足。任何一個同意Assist這項統計有其價值的人，都會同意Assist本身亦
極度依賴Assist本身之前的plays---這亦是籃球戰術的中心思想，也是把籃球數據分析跟
其他運動分析區隔出來的關鍵。棒球分析學的關鍵在於Bill James還有其他人的靈光一閃
---他們意識到棒球只能勉強算是一個團體運動，一個可以把比賽流程分割成無數個一對
一獨立的小事件的運動。但是籃球不同，每一次進球你都不能把功勞歸給進球的人，同樣
的道理可以應用到其他的統計項目，就像是籃板球跟put-backs。


Although Kobe Assists are admittedly a silly reminder of the natural
connectedness of basketball plays, they also provide a real diagnostic of how
well offensive ecosystems cooperate. In the taxonomy of the NBA, there are
various species of superstars. Different players do different things, and as
evidenced by the league's great offenses, like the one in San Antonio, the
best teams are the ones that somehow find a way to be greater than the sum of
their individual parts. When you step back and think about combining Steve
Nash, Kobe Bryant, and Dwight Howard it seems obvious that they would
coalesce to become a ridiculous collective scoring device, yet look no
further than Mike Brown for proof that this is easier said than done. As Kobe
eclipses the 30,000-point milestone, we're reminded of how great a scorer he
was, and still is. There's no doubt that Kobe is still the king of the
Lakers' offensive ecosystem, and it's up to the Lakers' coaches to devise
schemes that both acknowledge and optimize this. Kobe shots will happen, and
they will happen a lot, but what happens after them may determine the outcome
of this Lakers season.


儘管Kobe-Assists只是很基本的提醒人們籃球比賽的連貫性，它們同時也提供一個評量一
個進攻體系的工具。就像Spurs一樣，最好的進攻體系可以發揮1+1>2的效果。當你想想
Nash，Bryant，和Howard，你會很自然的以為他們可以輕易融合成一個威力強大進攻機器
---但是Mike Brown已經告訴你作起來比說難的多了。在Kobe達成30000分的里程碑時，毫
無疑問他是個強大的得分手---他現在依舊是。Kobe仍是Lakers的進攻核心，而教練的責
任就是為他設計出相對應的進攻體系：一個可以Kobe高出手的體系，但是出手後的events
，亦有可能決定Lakers本季的命運。



--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 140.180.247.213
推 suicideorz:應該多換些籃板癡漢來做苦工....好懷念Odom ...
推 lokiishere:推外電，所以打鐵可以看成是另類助攻XD
推 fungling:推翻譯辛苦
推 KobeYaMeTe:這篇真的太讚了!!
推 jerrys0580:別吵 球給NASH就對了（戰
推 ebv:很有趣的觀點~受益了~推推
推 misgood:這種新的觀念滿有趣的 用Kobe-Assists來命名真是有夠貼切
推 arthurkot:推這篇的觀點
推 fufu2839:好文~
推 SULICon:翻譯的好  但文章本身是謬論
推 hawk920412:一定會被酸酸酸藉口..
推 momowawa1981:實在無法認同....
推 encorej77107:這篇多少可以解釋 為什有時不覺得有人打很爛 但數據
→ encorej77107:卻呈現不怎麼好看
→ encorej77107:因為當己方搶到進攻籃板 或藍下有人幫補進時
→ encorej77107:就會在印象中 忽略掉一開始沒投進的那個人
推 kblover:這篇文章真的是我看過最豪洨  酸民看到百分之百高潮
→ kblover:整篇文章大概只有一個論點是對的:籃球不是獨立事件
→ kblover:其他推論都不知道在講什麼...
我同意，我看到這篇文章的感覺就像在念共產主義宣言一樣
他點出了ㄧ個現有數據分析最大的問題:籃球不是獨立事件
但是提出了ㄧ個極具爭議性的方案
→ DIE755127:真是有夠會扯的 還可以打這麼長一篇
推 Geel:這篇真的很棒
推 hawk920412:講這麼多就強調整支隊伍「進攻籃板」和「二次進攻」不
→ hawk920412:就好了，何必把找個特殊的一段時間加起來算...
※ 編輯: oliver031       來自: 140.180.247.213      (12/07 14:57)
推 kblover:最有問題在這裡  因為球隊進攻籃板強  所以多出手打鐵OK
→ kblover:甚至出手打鐵也是助攻的一種方式  太唬爛了  鬼才信
推 catclan:不認同文章講的　但推~ 這麼長你居然翻得下去XDD
推 yisdl:蠻有趣的啊 只是這是目前非主流文章而已
推 skba:推翻譯辛苦了
推 kaede0711:其實這篇的論點還不錯...,不過我覺得受隊形影響很大
→ kaede0711:也就是他的論點要有價值前提是隊伍籃板客觀條件要一樣
→ kaede0711:不然180的搶不到板,200那隊外圍出手打鐵都被解讀正面
→ kaede0711:而不將最大功勞記給200長人陣籃板壓過對方太多很不妥
推 neohao:太瞎但推翻譯
→ wzmildf:扯到爆 捧kobe捧得不餘遺力
→ wzmildf:你直接去總版看一下有酸民酸過一篇老大式打鐵傳球 有異曲
→ wzmildf:同工之妙
推 hssz:原來打鐵也是一種戰術，這就是傳說中的Kobe System？
推 kobe760903:有趣 但是建立在雙塔有能力的情況下
→ kobe760903:給你兩個奶油手 這數字就很難看了
推 mercuryblue:個人覺得結論=kobe出手打鐵反彈彈道理想...
推 eternalzero:太扯
→ mercuryblue:不過提出的對比中 只有湖人是雙塔 騎士只有米粉頭
→ mercuryblue:尼克...即便阿罵健康 我也不覺得在搶板上有2塔= =
→ dcoog7880:也要魔獸撿的到那個籃板
推 oopsmamamiya:進階數據給推
推 o0991758566:推~這篇很有趣
推 loveinmars:有趣是有趣..不過..真的有點扯...
→ o0991758566:看看就好~ㄏㄏ 推翻譯
推 romeomonkey:推超長篇 XD
推 joveryant:我真的很理性的說 我以前就有發現這件事了 我覺得KOBE
→ joveryant:會在撿子但球員卡好位的情況下勇於出手 因為我沒有統計
→ joveryant:數據支持 但大概就是這個說法 如果我沒有匯錯意的話
推 nightmood:推外電文
→ joveryant:這一季DH O/D 籃板的比率也是高於生涯平均不知可不可以
→ joveryant:當成一個補充說明 不過要強調的是 我沒有太多的有利證據
→ joveryant:只提共大家比賽時的一個觀察方向
→ wzmildf:出手順位低 子彈檢的多 當然籃板多..................
→ SULICon:他高於生涯平均是因為防守籃板數據下滑...
→ wzmildf:kobe更是絕對要噴球腦子一熱才不會管這麼多
→ SULICon:而且在進攻位想要搶好進攻籃板位置本來就不容易
推 a34567:KOBE影響了對方禁區球員的卡位(補防)所以湖人禁區會有跟進
→ wzmildf:簡單來說你打球敢跟教練說我這樣投籃是因為我算好他們
→ SULICon:哪來那麼多可以觀察到卡好位  難道我還可以看隊友在哪
→ wzmildf:會搶籃版 看會不會被臭罵一頓
推 FrienDx:同意部分，但實在用不著搞個新名詞Kobe Assist.. lol
→ a34567:進攻籃板的機會 這是我第一個想到的 然後brand 跟rose的類
→ SULICon:然後故意丟不進接著算準球的走向？
→ wzmildf:這篇文章真的看了感覺想在看陸文歌頌YIII
→ a34567:比 應該是因為ed身兼4號搶籃板的位置 然後他跑出去跳投
→ a34567:自然球隊就少個人卡位搶板 進攻籃板機會就少
→ a34567:不過我已經可以想像到總版的新梗了...
→ a34567:出現了 laoda的招牌動作 籃框助功
→ wzmildf:樓上，這不是新梗，這已經很多人說過了XDD
→ SULICon:KB三寶今年已經算很少出現了
→ wzmildf:"嘎受你接不到laoda傳給籃框的球 去自盡吧"
→ SULICon:希望不要隨著賽季的拉長跟去年一樣開高走低
推 joveryant:我寫的內容是說 當隊友卡好位時 會"比較"勇於出手
→ joveryant:這是我的一個觀察 防守籃板下降我了解 所以我用比率來說
→ wzmildf:我從kobe出道看到現在 他一直都是只有勇於出手阿..
→ SULICon:你的說法必須存在於他的進攻籃板數有明顯上升的狀況下
→ wzmildf:這麼說好了，打球不太可能做到這種事情啦 要在那邊觀察
→ joveryant:跟故意丟不進的想法 完全沒有關係
→ SULICon:而不是防守籃板數據下降造成比率上升...
→ wzmildf:半天 讓隊友檢籃板 是不會直接分球嗎...
→ wzmildf:再說nba的生態對於進攻籃板向來都不會太強求
→ joveryant:嗯嗯 我知道很沒說服力 所以我才說是我個人觀察 大家參
→ SULICon:因為你的重點根本就跟防守籃板沒關係  結果拿一個以防守
→ SULICon:籃板為分母的數據來說明
→ wzmildf:一出手大家一定是先回頭 只有一兩個人撥個籃板
→ joveryant:考看看 我知道他很容易腦熱啦 防守近年也很沒力 ok!
→ SULICon:在進攻籃板沒上升的情況下  當然影響的是防守籃板阿
→ joveryant:這篇所定義的kobe assist本來就跟防守籃板無關
→ SULICon:是阿  但是你提到O/D比不是很詭異嗎？
→ joveryant:所以S大要怎麼解讀 DH今年D下降這件事呢?
→ SULICon:我現在沒辦法回答你  給我一點時間  我需要去翻一些團隊
→ SULICon:數據
→ joveryant:我的觀點是假設DH今年整體籃板能力退化或說受體系影響
→ joveryant:但相較防守籃板 進攻籃板沒退化那麼多
→ joveryant:S大 我不是一昧護航啦 我只是以前有這樣覺得而已~
推 kai08130623:看完前兩段直接End...
推 jerry2588:不錯
推 joveryant:剛做一下DH O跟D相關程度非常低 所以我用比率顯然不合理
推 ballinboy:認真給推
推 zealeliot:我覺得漏講一個關鍵 像KB這種高中投命中率的球員
→ zealeliot:每次出手會很吸引敵隊防守球員目光 內線會想蓋鍋
推 zealeliot:內線分精力注意KB  相對來說湖人內線專心搶版
推 Terminator99:這不就是之前酸民說的打鐵助攻嗎＝＝
推 zealeliot:因此不差的內線跟他搭檔進攻籃板相對較好搶
→ zealeliot:厲害的外線球員應該都可以製造這種機會 當然KB是佼佼者
推 Sephiroth:要說KB觀察到防守者站位,利用出手來助攻這也太豪洨了
→ Sephiroth:但是我想這應該跟KB打球節奏有關,KB不是依靠速度打對方
→ Sephiroth:反應不及的那一型,他打的很聰明,靠著對手身上切到油漆區
→ Sephiroth:附近的出手蠻常見的,加上他蠻幹的自信以及不快的速度
→ Sephiroth:我想這一點對"把對方大個子拉出來"有很大的加分作用
→ Sephiroth:加上LA的禁區,所以KB在這一項數據才會領先全聯盟
→ violing613:想不到現在連這種數據都有了 只有那兩年說服力會很低
推 MOJS:很有趣的文章，不過似乎有點過於放大科比"助功了"
→ MOJS:冒號打錯位置= =
→ gordon27:只同意籃球是連貫事件 其他根本亂扯
→ gordon27:充其量只能說 戰術設計上讓湖人的球員能更有機會搶進攻籃
→ gordon27:板
→ violing613:那任何球員因為戰術設計取得的成就都毫無意義了
→ violing613:把這篇文章提到KB的部份拿掉 看起來就會正經很多
→ violing613:就是一項為鐵王族設計的非主流數據
→ violing613:不過把KB拿掉 點擊率恐怕瞬間下降80%
推 bigheadkobe:這篇不錯喔，長知識
推 joveryant:這篇文章並不是說KB故意不進然後故意製造助功
→ joveryant:他也許是說判斷隊員卡位狀況來決定出手時機 這個一點都
→ joveryant:不誇張 就像文中有提到的 球員在快攻時投外線 是比較不
→ joveryant:智的原因是沒有對有可以幫搶籃板 那麼為什麼大家會認為
→ joveryant:在打陣地戰時球員沒有能力作這樣的判斷呢? 曾經看過一個
→ joveryant:影片 espn也有播過 好像是KB在解讀對手防守的狀態 詳細
推 kazake:就好像鬥牛時 隊友如果都高個 比較有投中遠距的本錢
→ joveryant:內容我忘了 但是包含 可能的防守陷阱 或是對方站位...等
→ joveryant:我不覺得他是吹牛的 我也不覺得那有多不可思議
→ joveryant:對 就像K大說的那樣沒錯
推 YamagiN:直接投進哪還需要賭隊友搶不搶得到進攻籃板 隊友搶下來
→ YamagiN:是他幫你挽回了一次進攻機會 不是投籃者製造給他的吧 這篇
→ YamagiN:完全倒果為因 就算隊友內線站好位 球沒進籃板落下方向這麼
→ YamagiN:隨機的東西 不如好好找個空檔出手來得有意義多了
→ Xhocer:這根本就酸民說的打鐵助攻阿= =
→ violing613:打鐵落點是隨機 但防守MWP或KB佈陣不會是一樣的
→ violing613:例如歐拉絕殺魔術的tip in 滑翔翼沒把歐肥逼出補防
→ violing613:像這種球滑翔翼數據只得一鐵 歐拉就喜得一版兩分
→ violing613:                   的話大歐可以卡著不讓歐拉起飛^
→ YamagiN:但這並不是個有效率到可以當成助攻的進攻方式 你怎麼知道
→ YamagiN:籃板一定會到隊友手中 而不是被對手搶走然後發動快攻?
→ YamagiN:他只把其中好的部分挑出來講 而外線砍不進本身就是對手打
→ YamagiN:快攻的一個起點
→ violing613:各種可能就像原文作者一樣一球一球算啊
→ YamagiN:我想這得把其他被對手搶走的時候發動多少快攻反擊也考慮
→ YamagiN:進去才真的有他的價值在
推 animalspell:這篇的想法還真是太有趣了
→ animalspell:這篇被轉到EZ會發生什麼事情？
推 laitsaichieh:荒謬+倒果為因 居然還有人附和= =
推 shopercy:很瞎的一篇....可以直接投進誰會想搶籃板
推 Sephiroth:倒也不用把這篇文章看的跟垃圾一樣,這篇數據還是提供了
→ Sephiroth:一定的信息量,可以想想,為什麼聯盟這麼多人,KB這項數據
→ Sephiroth:會獨佔鰲頭呢? 其一當然是因為KB的生涯中多數有好的內線
→ Sephiroth:球員(也許這篇文章把04-07拿出來另外看會更有意思XD)
→ Sephiroth:其二,如果真的像某些人說的是專位打鐵王設計的數據
→ Sephiroth:那KB持球的時候對方早該準備搶籃板了吧!愛自幹又打鐵王
→ Sephiroth:提早卡位也是合情合理吧XD
→ Sephiroth:我是認為除了有優秀內線以外,KB個人還有幾項特質造成這
→ Sephiroth:第一就是KB的速度並不快,讓補防來得及反應被吸引出來
→ Sephiroth:第二就是他不管什麼狀況下都能出手的自信
→ Sephiroth:禪師說過,如果最後一擊剩5秒,那他會選擇MJ;如果只剩1秒
→ Sephiroth:他會選擇KB~這大概就說明了KB是最能在極端惡劣的環境下
→ Sephiroth:出手的球員,也因為他這種個性,讓防守方直覺就認為KB要出
→ Sephiroth:手了,而很遺憾KB並不是打鐵王,他的出手對防守方來說可是
→ Sephiroth:很大的威脅,防守方可是會極盡所能的來影響他的出手
→ Sephiroth:我是覺得這文章還蠻有趣,也提供了不同面相的看法
推 SULICon:斷水流大師兄表示：__________________________
推 Sephiroth:哈哈哈 我推完了
噓 lonelysam:有bynum+gasol  或dh+gasol   呵呵