[外電] 手肘門週年記事

[kart (=\)]

        看到一篇外電分析LBJ去年季後賽的手肘經過一年沈澱以後的真相
        LeBron's elbow, one year later
        By Kevin Arnovitz, ESPN

    Exactly one year after LeBron James' series of reckoning against
    Boston, Hoopdata's Jeff Fogle examines the tea leaves in search of
     some answers about what, if any, effect did LeBron's elbow have
    on his performance.
        Hoopdata的杰夫花了點時間分析去年LBJ季後賽手肘對Boston的影響。

    Fogle revisits the discussion at the time of the series: There was
     conclusive evidence and testimonials that James' elbow was
    clearly bothering him, particularly in the Cavs' win over Chicago
    in the first round. Remember the left-handed free throw against
    the Bulls (see the 3:18 mark of the video)? We're even told to
    check NBA.com for further details of LeBron's condition. Remember
    James' admission that, despite the persisting discomfort, he
    wouldn't use the elbow as an excuse for the Game 2 loss in
    Cleveland against the Celtics?
        杰夫認為LBJ當時手肘的傷勢對Boston的系列賽絕對有影響。
        杰夫甚至鼓勵大家去NBA.com察看當時的紀錄可以左證他的觀察。
        而他也認為LBJ自己當時都承認手肘有傷，只是說這不是輸球藉口。

    As Fogle points out, much of the elbow talk subsided after the
    Cavs walloped the Celtics in Game 3 of that series and James had a
     monster game -- just as he did in Game 1.
        當然關於手肘門，媒體似乎在LBJ Game 3的爆發後沈澱下來了。
        畢竟LBJ第三戰和第一戰表現一樣好。

    What did Games 1 and 3 of the Cleveland-Boston have in common?
    James had three days of rest:
        但是第一戰和第三戰的共同點是都有三天休息時間。

    *Cleveland had three days off to prepare for Game One of the
    Boston series after eliminating Chicago on April 27, 2010. With
    the series starting on May 1, 2010, that's three off days to rest
    and get ready. LeBron had a great first game. 35 points, 7
    rebounds, and 7 assists. Concerns about the elbow disappeared...
        LBJ第一戰得了35/7/7。大家似乎都認為他的手肘ok了。

    *A quirk in the schedule gave Cleveland and Boston three days off
    before Game Three in Beantown. They played May 1, May 3, and May
    7. Again, with a lengthy recovery time between games (and whatever
     potential treatment may be involved over a layoff), LeBron was
    great! He had 38 points, 8 rebounds, and 7 assists.
        而有長休息的第三戰LBJ得了38/8/7。

    Fogle then delves into the numbers, paying close attention not
    just to LeBron's general output, but to his relative performance
    as a jump shooter vs. as a basket attacker. Some interesting data
    emerged:
        這或許是巧合，但是當杰夫對LBJ的出手選擇做出深一層的研究後
        發現一些更有趣的例子：

    LeBron was hitting his open looks from distance in the games where
     the arm was well rested. In fact, he was more accurate from
    behind the arc than in the 16-23 foot range. But, in the quick
    turnarounds, he was a woeful 2 of 17 on treys (44 percentage
    points worse). Doesn't THAT suggest a potential injury issue all
    by itself? A guy's got a bad elbow, and he goes 2 of 17 on long
    shots in games with limited preparation and rest time. Why wasn't
    that a red flag to the national media.
        當LBJ有時間好好休息時（game1 and 3），他的長距離跳投是很準的。
        他的三分甚至比他的中長距離（16-23'）還準！
        但是當他沒有足夠休息時（game 2, 4, 5, 6），他的中長距離跳投
        命中率下降到17投中2的差勁地步。

    Unbelievably, James was 10 of 43 from OUTSIDE OF TWO FEET in those
     four games. TWO FEET!
        更令人難以置信的是，在這四場比賽裡，LBJ離籃筐兩尺外的命中率是可怕的
        43投10中。兩呎外！！

    Fogle looks at an array of stats -- stuff that an elbow injury
    wouldn't affect as much such as rebounding, close-range shots and
    assist totals ("The elbow moves more side-to-side on passes,
    compared to straight up and down on jump shots."). Fogle also
    notes that James logged his highest turnover totals on short rest:
        杰夫並且說這幾場比賽，在比較不需要應用手肘的地方，像是
        籃板，近距離投籃，或是助攻都影響不大。
        杰夫也說LBJ在這四場比賽的失誤率也上升很多。

    He became so reckless, because he was fighting hard to get close
    to the basket and either score or kick the ball out to a shooter,
    that his turnovers shot way up. He commited 7 turnovers in Game
    Four, and a whopping 9 turnovers in the Game Six finale.
        LBJ變得很粗心，因為他必須要盡可能的接近籃下去得分或是傳球。
        他的失誤率因此上升很多。

    He's been called a quitter because Cleveland didn't win the
    series. Here are the so-called quitter's stats in that series
    finale:
        LBJ因為去年那個糟糕的系列賽被大夥恥笑為逃避者(Quitter)，
        但是這個所謂Quitter最後一場球的表現如下：

    27 points (even though he was just 2 of 10 from outside two
    feet!!!!)
        27分（即使他在兩尺外出手命中率只有10投中2！！）
    19 rebounds (huge total for a small forward)
        19板（以小前鋒而言的高高標）
    10 assists (completing a triple double)
        10助攻（完成大三元）

    Is this data conclusive? It's tough to say. One could argue that
    any high usage athlete -- a small forward, a starting pitcher or,
    for that matter, a singles tennis player or a competitive cyclist
    -- will naturally perform better with more rest, whether or not
    they're nursing an injury.
        這個資料有像杰夫說得一樣有結論嗎？這或許見仁見智。
        不過有些人會說長時間的休息對運動員來講本來就會加分（注1）

    But in a conversation where assumptions have reigned supreme and
    things like quitting and choking have been ascribed so freely,
    Fogle's discoveries should certainly be food for thought.
        不過在現在這個鄉民氾濫，假設一堆的年代，大家都很輕易的叫
        選手逃避者或是關鍵軟手，杰夫的研究或許應該得到一些討論。

        ===========================================================
        （註1）如果有在跟LBJ的人應該知道，這三年來，LBJ表現最差的時候
        通常是休息最久的時候（3+day rest），0-1day rest的球賽LBJ其實
        反而表現最好（這數據很容易上NBA.com查），所以去年LBJ季後賽
        反而需要休息那麼久才打得好，當時就已經大有懸疑了。

        （註二） LBJ昨天賽後曾經說以前他如果不打出A+級的比賽，要贏Bos
        非常困難（他也說並不是說以前隊友不好，大家都曾努力過了）等等。
        我覺得就是他間接承認去年傷病的影響，也讓他決定來找幫手的原因。
        去年LBJ並不是到不能打得地步，但是很明顯這個傷讓他的表現無法
        那麼隨心所欲了，而當他不能保證打出A級比賽，騎士也就兵拜如山倒。
        我想對他來說來熱火就是給她有一層保障，當他因為甚麼原因也無法
        隨心所欲的打出A級比賽時，他還能靠其他表現幫助他的隊友來贏得比賽。

        （註三）我覺得之後的West門是惡意中傷居多，也讓大家幾乎忘了LBJ
        當時手肘有傷得影響。

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推 blur13:推~
推 mrgyt1030:LBJ加油,今年直衝總冠軍吧XD
推 w61036:推K大好文！
→ w61036:那今年第3戰對老賽到底是好還是不好@@ 休息還真久..
推 haue0425:推!!
→ w61036:之前是因為肘傷 休息久養傷 所以好..
→ kart:我覺得不好，LBJ如果沒有嚴重傷痛，休一打一比較適合
→ kart:當然季後賽他可能會調整訓練強度來幫助維持比賽狀態，不過還
→ kart:是休一打一可能最好
推 d88647511:好文推  一堆人都拿JORDAN出來講
→ d88647511:殊不知JORDAN那種發燒砍38分的 根本就是神 沒有第二人
→ kart:發燒砍38分其實比手殘腳殘簡單多了....
推 ancientchina:唉去年我真的以為騎士要奪冠了....沒想到橫生變故 冏
→ like1259:真的= = 我也真的覺得要奪冠了
推 cofficmike:以為去年就奪冠+1  結果去年一直被湖人朋友酸慘慘= =
推 w61036:唉..去年奪冠的話 LBJ還會跳槽嗎？
推 cofficmike:我猜還是會，可以跟Wade組隊，有誰不想試看看
→ cofficmike:發文偷賺一下P幣好了，每次都賺一元好少 0 . 0
推 w61036:XDDD 就說每次都重打就好了咩XD^^
推 cofficmike:重打真的很累吼...而且我超不擅長用修改模式的Orz....
→ cofficmike:畫面會變超亂+超醜..... 0 . 0