Re: [閒聊] LFC戰術討論

[magicalion (Loneliness)]

這篇主要是講支撐Rodgers的"Resting with the ball"背後思維。
作者試圖利用數據來討論高控球率對於攻防兩端所帶來的效益。

原文: http://goo.gl/xNosD

Brendan Rodgers: Resting With The Ball

摘錄部分內容：

=========================================================================

Swansea’s impressive passing statistics have been much quoted in this context;
only Manchester City attempted and completed more than them last season.

2011/12賽季Swansea球隊在傳球方面的統計數據是非常令人印象深刻的，
整個英超只有曼城可以相提並論，稍微勝過Swansea。


An intriguing aspect of this preference for possession is that
it is used as both an offensive and defensive tool.

Michael Cox of Zonal Marking previously elaborated on the link
between possession and shots attempted per game and showed
that in general, teams with more possession had more shots,
although there was a large degree of variation around the general trend.

However, this only investigates the offensive aspect.

偏好高控球率打法的方式，是否對進攻和防守都能發揮效用？
關於這一點一直都是很有趣且令人好奇的問題。

Michael Cox 曾經在Zonal Marking發表過一篇文章，
討論控球率和射門次數之間的關聯。(原文: http://goo.gl/akdkJ)
結論是，總體趨勢來說來說球隊有越高的持球率則會有更多的射門次數，
但這中間仍存有相當大程度的變異。
(該篇的原文最後一句結論是這麼寫的：In general,
 more possession will mean more shots – but it’s not always the case.)

然而，該篇文章僅討論高控球率在進攻方面的效益。
(意思是說並沒有討論到高控球率在防守方面所帶來的效果)

By having the ball,
the opposition can’t score while
you simultaneously have increased your own chances of scoring as
you need the ball in order to score. So the question is: is this true?

透過保持球權，那麼對手將無法得分，同時你也持續在增加己方得分的機會，
因為你必須要有球才能得分。然而事情真的是這樣嗎？

One method of ascertaining how well teams accomplish the twin goals of
attempting shots on goal and preventing shots on their own goal is to
take the ratio between them. If this ratio is greater than 1,
then a team attempts more shots than it concedes.

透過球隊 射門次數/被對方射門次數 這個指標來試圖回答上面的問題。
若這個指標數據大於1則代表球隊創造出比對方更多的射門次數。


In order to assess whether this has any relationship with passing,
I’ve plotted this ratio against the number of short passes
attempted per game by each team in the top leagues in
England, Spain, Italy, Germany and France in the figure below.

The teams from each league are coloured differently and
various teams are highlighted for comparison purposes/interest.

作者用每個球隊的平均每場短傳次數(X軸)，
和上面的平均每場 射門次數/被射門次數 數據(Y軸)，
製作出一張散布圖。(可參考原文，或是看大圖http://goo.gl/K6896)

作者整理了2011/12英超、法甲、義甲、德甲和西甲這5個頂級聯賽球隊的數據，
並且用不同的顏色標示在圖型上，橫向和縱向分別代表數據的平均值。


Broadly, teams that attempt more short passes per game tend to
attempt more shots than they concede
(correlation coefficient of 0.8 if you are that way inclined).

Unsurprisingly, the teams at the extreme ends of the number of
short passes are Stoke (229 per game) and Barcelona (655 per game).

總體來說，球隊每場短傳次數越多，那麼射門次數也會比被射門次數多更多。
(相關係數達0.8)

分居傳球次數最多和最少的，分別是Barcelona(平均每場短傳655次)，
和Stoke(平均每場短傳229次)。

(從這圖可以看出來，位於右上角高於平均的短傳次數以及高射門/被射門次數比的區域，
多半是大家熟知表現比較好的球隊。)


Barcelona are also at the extreme end of the shots attempted:conceded ratio,
achieving well above 2 times as many attempted shots compared to
those they concede. This is largely driven by their ability to
prevent their opponents taking shots,
as Barcelona have the lowest number of shots conceded per game
(only 7.3 per game).

Barcelona’s shots attempted comes in 10th (16.5 per game).

Barcelona are adept at “resting with the ball” but
you probably already knew that.

Barcelona的射門次數/被射門次數比也是所有球隊中最高的，
其每場球平均射門次數約是被射門次數的兩倍。
這主要是仰賴其不讓對方拿球往前進攻而降低被射門次數的能力。
Barcelona每場球平均被對方射門次數僅7.3次，在所有球隊中居首位。

Barcelona也是同樣信奉"Resting with the ball"的Tiki-taka的球隊。
(也是世界上執行最徹底、完美的球隊)

(Barcelona射門次數不是最高的，記得前面幾篇講的Tiki-Taka追求重質不重量的射門，
因此宇宙隊Barcelona射門次數不是最高，這點看起來是合理的。
但因為他們講究高控球率，所以減低了被對方拿球射門的機會，
所以每場被射門次數這項數據則是5大聯賽裡面最佳)

Many of the teams analysed attempt a below average number of short passes and
concede more shots than they attempt. Ajaccio,
FC Cologne and Santander posted the lowest shots attempted:conceded ratio,
with the latter two being relegated.

許多射門次數/被射門次數比小於平均且短傳次數較少的球隊，普遍表現較差。
如Ajaccio、FC Cologne、Santander列居最低的射門次數/被射門次數比，
而後兩者已經從頂級聯賽降級。


Swansea & Liverpool

Swansea are one of the few teams that combined a large number of
short passes per game with a well below average
shots attempted:conceded ratio.

The closest side to Swansea in this sense is Athletic Bilbao,
another side who value possession and pressing highly.

Clearly Swansea keep the ball well and translated this to
a reasonable number of attempted shots per game
(12.4, joint 15th highest in the EPL, mid-table across all 5 leagues).

Swansea 和 Liverpool

Swansea是幾個比較特別的球隊之一，他有著相當高的每場平均短傳次數，
但是其射門/被射門次數比卻低於平均值。

數據上最接近Swansea的球隊是Athletic Bilbao，
其重樣也是講求持球率以及高位壓迫的球隊。

Swansea經由高控球率打法而轉化成實際射門次數的效率還算合理，
平均每場射門次數12.4次，位於英超15th，大約在5個聯賽當中的所有球隊位居中游。


Furthermore, Swansea’s patient style of play seeks to create higher quality
shooting opportunities;
a lower number isn’t necessarily a bad thing as it isn’t artificially
inflated by long-range pot-shots that threaten the corner flag
rather than the goal.

更進一步的說，Swansea耐心導球尋找最好攻門時機的進攻方式，
他們的射門次數並非由盲目的遠射灌水而來，
所以次數較低並不是一件太糟糕的事。
(所以暗指問題應該是出在被攻門次數過高?)


However, compared to other teams that play an above average number of
short passes per game,
their shots conceded per game is relatively high
(15.7, 7th highest in the EPL).

Indeed, of the 11 teams that conceded more shots per game
across the five leagues,
8 of them finished in the bottom 4 of their respective leagues
(6 were relegated).

然而比較其它那些平均短傳次數高於平均的球隊，
Swansea被射門次數的確太高。
(平均每場被射門15.7次，在英超排7th，只有6隻英超球隊平均射門次數比Swansea高，
順便提一下Swansea 2011/12賽季最後排英超第11th)

另外在5大聯賽所有球隊當中，僅有11個球隊被射門次數比Swansea要來得多，
這11支球隊當中，有8支球隊最後是位於個別聯賽的倒數4名(其中有6支球隊最後降級)。


As mentioned previously,
not all shots are created equal but Swansea conceded 59% of these shots
within their own penalty area,
which was joint 4th highest in the EPL.

Without delving further into numbers and analysis,
this potentially suggests that Swansea are good at keeping the ball
but perhaps were not as good at transitioning to their defensive duties
either individually or collectively when they lost it.

雖然前面提到，每次射門質量不盡相同，
但Swansea被射門次數中的59%是發生在禁區當中，而這是英超聯賽裡面第4高的。

作者未做更進一步的分析，但是很有可能是因為雖然Swansea善於持球，
但當失去球權被反攻時，Swansea個人或團隊防守能力可能不如其控球向前進攻的能力。


Liverpool on average attempted close to 60% more shots than
they conceded, with only 8 teams achieving a larger ratio.

In Liverpool’s case, this was driven by both being able to
execute a large number of shots on their opponent’s goal and
combining this with a low number of shots on their own goal.

LFC平均每場射門次數比被射門次數多出60%，
該項數據在5大聯賽所有球隊中，僅有8支球隊該數據表現更好。

對LFC來說，這主要是因為同時創造了夠多的射門次數，
以及有效地在防守端抑制對方射門次數。

Liverpool ranked 4th for shots attempted in the EPL
(6th across all 5 leagues) and 3rd for shots conceded
(15th across all 5 leagues).

This was combined with the 7th highest number of
short passes per game in the EPL.

As has been shown many times over the past season,
Liverpool’s major problem statistically was their woeful translation
of shots to goals.

LFC平均每場射門次數排英超第4th，5大聯賽中排第6th；
被射門次數則是排英超第3th(低)，5大聯賽中排第15th。
同時平均每場球短傳次數排在英超第7th。
(看到這我也覺得很意外，數據上看來，我們每場球射門次數要比被射門次數多很多)

這應證了已經有很多分析文章指出，
2011/12的LFC主要的問題是在於無法把高射門次數轉換成實際得分
(所以改打Tiki-Taka，追求高控球之外，還強調射門品質希望有所改善)


The way forward for Liverpool

Liverpool under Kenny Dalglish were hardly a team that
could be described as a “route one” football team,
although the passing style was at times impatient and
overly focussed upon crossing to what often seemed like
unidentified targets in the penalty area.

However, there is a significant difference between the number of
short passes played by Swansea (497 per game)
compared to Liverpool (440 per game).

展望LFC下個賽季
Kenny Dalglish下的LFC很難被歸類在某種類型的足球風格當中。
雖然大多的傳球風格都是屬於直接(times impatient)並過於強調傳中，
而且多半看起來像是漫無目標的往禁區傳。

但Swansea和LFC之間在平均每場短傳次數上有著很顯著的差異。
Swansea每場平均短傳次數達497次；而LFC則是440次。


Next season, Liverpool will presumably move towards and perhaps
exceed 500 short passes per game as
the influence of Rodgers’ possession orientated
playing philosophy takes hold.

At the very least,
Liverpool should be looking to maintain their shots attempted:conceded ratio
from last season to the next.

如果Rodgers的足球哲學和戰術理念完整地傳達的話，
推測下個賽季(2012/13)LFC平均每場短傳次數將可能會超過500次。
而且同時LFC應該至少要維持像本賽季(2011/12)的射門/被射門比。


A more patient style of play may help to deliver more players in
the final third in order to create and take shooting opportunities.

If such patience also delivers some more-composed finishing,
then Liverpool under Brendan Rodgers could be very exciting indeed.

而更有耐心地處理球權往前進攻，將可以幫助更多的球員進入球場最後的1/3處，
以便創造出更好更佳的射門機會。
如果這樣耐心的風格能夠帶來更沉著冷靜的射門得分，
那麼下個賽季Rodgers帶領的LFC著實令人興奮！

======================================================================

累了，只打YNWA！
感想以後有空再補..

這篇作者用一些數據來說明高持球率，
以及Resting with the Ball在攻防兩端帶來的效果。

從數據上我們在防守端的表現仍然位居英超前4，
希望下賽季透過較佳的射門品質(但有可能降低射門次數)，
增加射門次數轉化成實際得分的效率；
同時透過高控球率，減低被對方射門次數，維持住射門/被射門比率。

S7射門的保握度不高，但他是LFC每場平均可以創造出最多機會的球員，
所以買進高效射手-Borini，的確是很合理的轉會開場交易。
而且Borini有小Inzaghi之稱，善於反越位跑動，
很符合Rodgers的433中場頂前的位置，打Poacher/Target Man，
並牽制住兩個中衛，讓打左邊或右邊的S7可以有更大的空間，
進行小範圍的轉向變速過人，替球隊創造出機會或是自己攻門。

Dempsey來就更好，因為他可以打中前場幾乎所有的位置，
他可以頂前打中鋒，也可以打左右兩邊的前翼，
而且他的頭球功夫一點都不差，更適合打Target Man。

接下來的文章，我想討論一下上賽季我們LFC的問題。

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 109.153.116.125
推 everblue12:一定要推的啊!
推 cakoo:推啦!!!
推 sskingdon:
推 wyjwyj:看到進球效率,就想到上賽季我們球隊射中門柱的次數...
推 lane34:謝謝!!不過上賽季因為盧神的缺陣讓我們中場缺乏保護的情況
→ lane34:被射門次數還這麼少真的要歸功於S37+A5 另外射門效率低落
→ lane34:我很怕因為高持球戰術使得射門次數變少 就算效率增加但是
→ lane34:整體得分還是不會增加太多 這也是我覺得C9絕對不能走的原因
→ lane34:以S7的finishing來說 高持球比也很難讓他的finishing變好
→ lane34:反而高持球比應該要讓他能夠為隊友創造更多機會 或者是
→ lane34:S7可以透過其他隊友的控球以及自己的跑位來獲得更好的打門
→ lane34:位置 這樣才能增加他的效率 也增加他做球的機會 至於不摸
→ lane34:隊徽的 那跟控球比沒關係 快點摸隊徽就對了!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
推 lane34:可惜靠特走了 不然我覺得他超級適合Rodgers的打法........
推 rm76:還有Maxi也是... 感覺他的跑位在新戰術下可以有所發揮的
→ magicalion:同意樓上2位的意見 Maxi和Kuyt的技術特點 適合打新體系
→ magicalion:433最前面的兩翼 因為Rodgers喜歡頂在前面的兩翼內切
→ magicalion:若要兩翼傳中 多半已經進入Zone G(8)的區域才起高球
→ magicalion:相較之下D19雖然也可以打433前面的左邊 但當初買他是看
→ magicalion:中他的傳中能力 所以適應新體系應該會比較吃力
→ magicalion:總結下來目前隊內可以打最前面三個位置的只剩下S7 C9
→ magicalion:Borini和B39以及D19 扣掉可能會賣掉的C9和年邁的B39
→ magicalion:我們肯定是還會買可以打這三個位置的人 AMR/AML/FC
※ 編輯: magicalion      來自: 93.97.48.98          (07/20 08:57)
→ magicalion:或是 FR/FL/FC
推 tyuwai:但愿Rodgers有足夠的時候貫徹他的帶隊理念，加油！
推 Farewell:大家別忘了前場還有個J.Cole~~
推 wugui:阿奎也可以打前面吧?
推 mcowen:所以要買美國隊長?
推 madduxowen:要買阿 現在在橋價錢
推 wugui:結果Joe Allen 有15M買斷條款 看來...............
推 taiwan3135:可是15M感覺有點貴...
推 wugui:15M很貴= =" 可是他很年輕 而且如果打得出來就會變很值了
推 Magiclwf:15M是瘋了嗎..買來跟亨神一樣就好笑了
→ USSMissouri:還買中場 真是夠惹
推 wugui:歐羅巴會對上Renova 或 Gomel 都沒聽過.....
推 sofa236:15M超貴 Allen來就表是要有中場掰了 Adam糟糕啦現在...
→ sofa236:另外推一下 這兩篇文章真的太棒啦 感謝原PO
→ sofa236:這篇就跟上賽季中詹俊就開始提的一樣 利記是五大聯賽進球
→ sofa236:轉換率最低的前幾名 S7某方面也跟C9有一樣的問題
→ sofa236:S7靠敗球單打來創造機會的也滿多的 可能是沒人跟他配合吧
→ sofa236:下賽季的陣容是不是大概有個型了?! 433Borini頂在最前
→ sofa236:而S7踢左翼 不過右邊到底是誰?! Dempsey嗎?!
推 leoturkey:15M $太多沒處花?
推 taiwan3135:沒跟鵝鵝比賽 不過有人說他是鵝海隆那的Xavi?
→ taiwan3135:所以至少可以確定Rodgers體系他應該能夠融入的不錯吧..
→ Aurelio:如果打算買美國隊長 攻擊線應該是雙前鋒 單前腰
推 madduxowen:大家如果要討論球員轉會請麻煩去謠言區討論 感謝啦
※ 編輯: magicalion      來自: 146.169.8.125        (07/20 22:28)