作者shancko (雅典等等我)
看板MIN-Twins
標題[評論] Free Carlos Gomez! (from AG.com)
時間Tue May 12 02:33:51 2009
今天看到這一篇評論
於我心有戚戚焉
所以跟大家分享一下
Carlos Gomez was in the lineup yesterday for just the fourth time in 17
games, as Ron Gardenhire has decided that Delmon Young in left field, Denard
Span in center field, and Michael Cuddyer in right field is his preferred
outfield alignment. Gardenhire has shown that he figures to start Span and
Cuddyer nearly every game, so he's basically chosen Young over Gomez as the
"other" starting outfielder. There are two problems with his decision, one of
which is short term and one of which is long term.
Gardenhire很明顯地將讓Span跟Cuddyer每天先發
他選擇了Young當第三個外野手
不過這樣的決定在短期跟長期來說都很值得討論
For most fans and far too many media members, benching Gomez for Young looks
like an easy move. After all, Gomez is batting .218 and Young is batting
.288. Easy call, right? Actually, no. Young's batting average is incredibly
empty, as 21 of his 23 hits have been singles and he's drawn four walks in 87
plate appearances. Yes, the fact that he's "hitting" .288 looks good at first
glance, but his .333 on-base percentage and .338 slugging percentage are an
awful combination for a corner outfielder.
對大部分的人來說,選擇Young而讓Gomez坐板凳是再容易不過的選擇了
但.288的BA其實一點用都沒有,因為23支安打中有21支是single
而且Young選到的BB非常的少
因此,他的OBP跟SLG在corner outfielder來說,是非常差勁的
Gomez has been even worse offensively, hitting just .218/.259/.327 in 58
plate appearances, but unlike Young his value goes far beyond his production
at the plate. Gomez is one of the elite defensive center fielders in
baseball, saving the Twins a tremendous number of runs with his glove. His
presence in center field also means that Span slides over to left field,
where he's also one of the elite defenders in the game.
在攻擊上,Gomez當然是爛的多
但他跟Young不一樣,他在防守上的價值,遠遠超過打擊
Young is a better hitter than Gomez right now, but the gap isn't anywhere
close to as big as their batting averages suggest and pales in comparison to
the gap defensively. Last year Young hit .290/.336/.405 and Gomez hit
.258/.296/.360. This season Young is at .288/.333/.338 and Gomez is at
.218/.259/.327. In both cases the difference is about 80 points of OPS and
even that figure is inflated by not accounting for Young's propensity to
ground into double plays or Gomez's superior speed on the bases.
Young現在的確是個比較好的打者,但他跟Gomez的差距並沒有想像中的大
綜合這兩年的表現,兩人OPS的差距大概是.080左右
但這並不包含Young打出的雙殺打,還有Gomez優異的速度所造成的影響
Based strictly on their production offensively as members of the Twins, Young
has been about 15 runs better than Gomez per 600 plate appearances. In some
circumstances a 15-run gap offensively would be a lot, but not here.
According to Ultimate Zone Rating as a duo Gomez in center field and Span in
left field (or right field) has been 30-35 runs above average per 150 games.
Meanwhile, as a duo Span in center field and Young in left field has been
45-50 runs below average per 150 games.
以600個PA為準,Young在打擊上的RC,會高於Gomez15分
但如果考慮到Span-LF,Gomez-CF,在150場中會創造高於平均30-35RS
而Young-LF,Span-CF,則是低於平均45-50RS
The latter total is inflated by Span's unsustainably horrible numbers in
limited action as a center fielder, but even if you ignore them to give him
credit for being exactly average in center field--which at this point is far
from a safe assumption--the Young-Span alignment is 40-50 runs worse than the
Span-Gomez alignment. In other words, by benching Gomez for Young the Twins
are gaining 15 runs offensively and losing 40-50 runs defensively. All of
which is why focusing on their batting averages is silly.
就算保守點估計,Young-Span比Span-Gomez的組合最少也會差到40-50分
所以只關心BA的差距是很無腦的
In the short term benching Gomez for Young is costing the Twins a significant
number of runs, but the move could have even costlier ramifications long
term. Gomez is six months from his 24th birthday and has great athletic
ability, world-class speed, and little idea what he's doing at the plate.
While with the Mets he was rushed through the minor leagues, playing at
Double-A as a 20-year-old and debuting in the majors as a 21-year-old after
all of 36 games at Triple-A.
短期來說,讓Gomez坐板凳已經會在防守上失去更多分
但更嚴重的是如此會造成長期的影響
Gomez was rushed through the normal development process for a prospect,
getting promoted to the majors far sooner than his minor-league performance
warranted and then sticking in the big leagues at least in part because he
was the centerpiece of a franchise-altering trade. Certainly none of that has
helped him mature as a player, but compounding those mistakes by now
relegating him to the bench makes even less sense.
Gomez被rush的很大,20歲就上2A,21歲就在3A出賽36場以後被拉上major
比起之前Mets這錯誤的策略,
現在把他長期放在板凳則更是愚蠢
Young was born just a few months before Gomez in 1985 and also would benefit
from regular playing time, which certainly makes juggling outfielders
difficult for Gardenhire. However, even before planting Gomez on the bench
Gardenhire found playing time for Young by starting him against all
left-handers and some right-handers. Young started nine of the first 15
games, totaling 35 plate appearances. On the other hand, Gomez has four
starts and 18 total plate appearances during the past 17 games.
Young獲得比Gomez多非常多的PA
For all his faults Gomez is a significantly more valuable all-around player
than Young right now, but by focusing on batting averages and paying zero
attention to advanced defensive metrics the Twins have a difficult time
wrapping their heads around that. However, even if you're convinced that
Young is the superior player right now and benching Gomez doesn't hurt the
team in the short term, why in the world would you want your incredibly raw
23-year-old center fielder getting one or two starts per week?
只把眼睛放在BA上的話,當然不會發現其實Gomez比Young更有價值
而就算Young真的比Gomez優異很多
讓一個如此具有潛力但未成熟的CF每週只先發一或兩次是在搞什麼?
If the Twins aren't going to play Gomez, they ought to at least let him
continue to develop at Triple-A. By benching him for Young and keeping him in
the majors to make a start every 4-5 games, they're hurting the team in both
the short and long term. With his great defense Gomez would become an
incredibly valuable all-around player simply by developing into a mediocre,
slightly below-average hitter. With his horrible defense Young would need to
develop into a great hitter just to have the same type of value.
如果不打算讓Gomez先發,就放他去3A吧!!!
他需要持續的出賽磨練打擊,只要打擊成長到slightly below-average就足夠了
讓他當Young的替補,真是他媽的腦殘!!!
It's certainly clear which scenario I'd bet on, but more importantly there's
no reason for the Twins to take an either-or approach yet. Given their fly
ball-heavy pitching staff using a Span-Gomez-Cuddyer outfield with Jason
Kubel or Young at designated hitter depending on the handedness of the
opposing pitcher remains the best alignment on most days, but if the Twins
can't or won't recognize that then at least let Gomez play regularly at
Rochester without wasting his development and service time.
此外,Twins大部分的投手是飛球投手
所以用Span-Gomez-Cuddyer絕對比較好,讓Kubel跟Young打DH
再重複一次
讓Gomez先發吧,不然就放他去3A!!!
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 218.167.164.35
推 zsxdaqwe:Gomez需要更多打擊 到3A目前是最好的選擇 05/12 10:27
→ zsxdaqwe:尤其昨天一球Gomez找不到球 Gardy印象又更差了 05/12 10:33
→ zsxdaqwe:打擊可以跟Franklin Gutierrez差不多就好了 不要求太高 05/12 10:44
→ ToriiHunter:有同感阿 Gomez拿不到先發的話 就去3A吧 05/13 10:21
→ ToriiHunter:Gomez速度好快阿 一上來就盜壘 05/13 10:48
→ interesting:牛棚真抖...... 05/14 10:33
→ ToriiHunter:Ayala好樣的 領先的全部送回給老虎了 現在反倒還落後 05/14 10:35
→ ToriiHunter:換Guerrier也被Larish來一發 真慘 05/14 10:39
→ interesting:Kubel 2 run shot!! 追平了 05/14 11:11
→ interesting:Nathan一上來就BB...囧 05/14 11:22
→ ToriiHunter:Nathan如果穩住 接下來就看誰牛棚比較爛了= = 05/14 11:23
→ ToriiHunter:Mijares成功穩了兩局 誰來一棒結束這場比賽吧 吃飯去 05/14 12:02
→ shancko:我剛看了一下重播 Guerrier投六球被打二支HR 也太慘了吧 05/14 12:08
推 zsxdaqwe:牛棚輪流不穩阿 是怎樣啦 05/14 12:23
→ zsxdaqwe:Crain最近蠻抖的....守下來阿 05/14 12:37
→ zsxdaqwe:竟然投手犯規 送人一分 真的被噓爆了 05/14 12:43
→ zsxdaqwe:被Granderson玩弄了 Crain輸了面子輸了裡子 05/14 12:44
→ wolvesking21:看來要結束了... 05/14 12:45
→ zsxdaqwe:才再想會不會盜本壘而已 竟然被玩了 = = 05/14 12:45
→ zsxdaqwe:等一下從酷寶開始 還有機會 老虎牛棚也沒多厲害 05/14 12:46
→ zsxdaqwe:爽啦 Punto心臟真大 就這樣跑回來 05/14 12:52
推 ToriiHunter:回來就看到再見滿貫阿 爽啦 :DDDD 05/14 12:59
→ shancko:再見滿貫砲 爽啦!!! 05/14 13:00
→ zsxdaqwe:爽啦!!!!!!! 05/14 13:01
推 wolvesking21:買午餐回來就看到再見滿貫砲XDDDDDDDDDDDDD 05/14 13:12
→ zsxdaqwe:Baker投得很好 就是一局爆 Verlander太猛了 沒辦法 05/15 02:46
→ zsxdaqwe:逆轉耶 太神奇了 05/15 11:37
→ wolvesking21:不愧是宅城 05/15 17:12
→ ToriiHunter:明天要打基 期待ㄐ們joke般的live推文 05/15 17:43
推 zsxdaqwe:沒錯 我也很期待 XDDDD 最好把他們打爆 05/15 17:51
推 Carreras:齁 犛牛 不是 是貓牛 可以醬肆無忌憚一直轟的嗎 ^-b 05/16 09:55
推 zsxdaqwe:Nathan上場關門了 面對中心打線 刺激刺激 05/16 10:29
→ ToriiHunter:抖了 現在只差一分 05/16 10:32
推 zsxdaqwe:裁判好球帶..... 05/16 10:37
→ zsxdaqwe:剛剛九上左打者外角一直好球 A肉一樣位置壞球 05/16 10:38
→ zsxdaqwe:有修正了! 05/16 10:38
推 zsxdaqwe:常富寧怎麼好像很爽的樣子 XD 05/16 10:45
推 zsxdaqwe:關不起來的門........ 05/16 10:48
→ ToriiHunter:唉 連Nathan也來BS..= =不能守住來幫猛牛慶生了 氣死 05/16 10:49
推 zsxdaqwe:Gardner那球應該要記Gomez失誤才對 05/16 10:51
→ zsxdaqwe:覺得Cuddyer好像對Gomez很不爽 防守範圍太大的缺點 05/16 10:53
推 zsxdaqwe:老實說 在yankee stadium不要被sweep就好了Twins有恐雞症 05/16 11:13
→ Carreras:中外野手有時搶接球搶得太嚴重 的確會讓人跟隊友不爽 05/16 12:03
→ Carreras:好像只有你會接球 我接的話就會漏掉失誤 05/16 12:03
→ Carreras:我要靠你來解救似的... 05/16 12:04
推 JohnMcDonald:猛牛的生日禮物被搞丟了... /_\ 05/16 12:05
→ zsxdaqwe:被黑掉一分 = = 05/17 01:41
→ zsxdaqwe:沒回踩壘包 = = 05/17 01:43
→ zsxdaqwe:黑燒啟動自爆模式..... 05/17 02:07
→ zsxdaqwe:貓兒太神了啦~~~~又一轟了 05/17 02:14
推 JohnMcDonald:貓兒!! \^0^/ 05/17 02:17
推 Nikezoomair:Span SB~ 05/17 02:35
→ Nikezoomair:絕對好球香振= =++ 05/17 02:38
→ zsxdaqwe:貓兒上來壘上都沒人 05/17 02:39
→ zsxdaqwe:繼昨天Gomez後 Span也讓卡帶兒不爽了 05/17 02:43
→ zsxdaqwe:完全被鎖死.... 05/17 02:56
→ zsxdaqwe:一到客場就原形畢露了 唉 可惜黑燒投得不錯 05/17 03:24
推 Nikezoomair:猛牛GJ HR 3-3八上一出局 05/17 03:33
→ zsxdaqwe:爽!!!!!!!! 05/17 03:34
→ zsxdaqwe:都是靠M&M boys 這兩場 其他人也來幾隻吧 05/17 03:35
推 zsxdaqwe:YES 05/17 03:39
推 Nikezoomair:Buscher GJ 2B 4-3 05/17 03:40
→ zsxdaqwe:拜託等一下投手守住 拜託拜託 05/17 03:40
推 Nikezoomair:= = 被松井打2B 0out 05/17 03:50
推 Nikezoomair: 3B 1out 05/17 03:52
→ zsxdaqwe:鎖住啊 05/17 03:53
→ Nikezoomair:靠 教練是西瓜喔== 05/17 03:54
→ Nikezoomair:死不換 05/17 03:54
→ zsxdaqwe:應該要換了吧 Breslow對鐵爺 05/17 03:54
→ zsxdaqwe:無言了......真的不換 05/17 03:55
→ Nikezoomair:鐵爺追平安了啊...四打數四安 = =+ 05/17 03:55
→ zsxdaqwe:換左投抓左打死不換 氣死人了 05/17 03:55
→ Nikezoomair:鐵爺是兩打啦 但之前三打數三安了還繼續讓他投= =+ 05/17 03:56
→ zsxdaqwe:對於這個不換的決定 Gardy去吃x吧 05/17 03:57
→ zsxdaqwe:一定要換的阿 氣到忘了鐵爺是switch hitter 05/17 03:57
→ zsxdaqwe:去年Guerrier也是差不多情況被a肉尻一發在yankee stadium 05/17 03:59
→ zsxdaqwe:越搞越糟了 Crain也不敢用了 Guerrier不要把人搞回家啊 05/17 03:59
→ zsxdaqwe:A肉乖乖出局吧 05/17 04:00
→ zsxdaqwe:蠻漂亮的一球 主審不買帳 05/17 04:01
→ zsxdaqwe:不祥的預感....... 05/17 04:02
推 Nikezoomair:安全下庄 要面對Mo了嗎... 要看說明書喔 >.^ 05/17 04:04
→ zsxdaqwe:應該是Mo會上來 不過我們是後段棒次 05/17 04:07
→ zsxdaqwe:打到前半段了喔 有希望有希望 05/17 04:08
→ zsxdaqwe:至少打得到貓兒 Harris該安打了吧 05/17 04:10
→ wolvesking21:三上三下= =真的不要抱太大期望 05/17 04:11
推 Nikezoomair:Mo的控球太扯了= = 兩個外角球香振 05/17 04:11
→ zsxdaqwe:人老了 球還是很會跑 還是厲害 05/17 04:12
→ zsxdaqwe:Crain最近太抖了 打越久輸面越大 05/17 04:16
→ wolvesking21:攻佔12b 0out 還是打不回來= = 今天調度有點詭異 05/17 04:27
→ zsxdaqwe:卡帶而今天除了保送甄的蠻廢的 12B也沒推進效果 05/17 04:29
→ zsxdaqwe:最近牛棚中記這還Guerrier回穩 希望不要又被操爆了 05/17 04:30
→ zsxdaqwe: 中繼這環 05/17 04:31
推 wolvesking21:好用就是要一直用阿(誤) 05/17 04:32
→ zsxdaqwe:操爆太不划算了啦 想想前幾年牛棚還是前幾名 05/17 04:34
→ zsxdaqwe:Breslow不要在投保送了...... 05/17 04:35
→ zsxdaqwe:除了M&M 其他打者都在睡覺嘛 05/17 04:42
→ wolvesking21:剛想推文有不好預感 A-rod就再見HR了= = 05/17 04:45
推 Nikezoomair:被打了= = 05/17 04:46
→ zsxdaqwe:果然 連兩場被再見 八下的調度太關鍵了 05/17 04:47
→ zsxdaqwe:連兩場該贏的都沒了 在洋基主場真的見鬼 3-21 since 2002 05/17 04:52
→ ToriiHunter:不要拿掃把我就滿足了 看了重播真生氣 >< 05/17 10:28
→ zsxdaqwe:被橫掃機率很高耶 我覺得 Burnett打得不好 05/17 12:39
→ interesting:每次去洋基球場運氣都很差...... 05/17 12:42
→ zsxdaqwe:真的有夠衰 輸球就算了 看球忘記限流量被學校鎖了 囧 05/17 17:09