Baseball won't go the way of the NBA

[abc12812 ()]

http://tinyurl.com/6e2dzdz


Much of the last week (if not, in fact, the past six months) has been devoted
to wailing and gnashing about Carmelo Anthony and what his insistence to play
for the Knicks means for the NBA. As a Cleveland fan, I'm certainly sensitive
to the issue of elite players using their free agency leverage to engineer
hand-picked “power” teams. Trust me, I've been there.

Is this good for the NBA? Frankly, I don't care all that much. It's the NBA.
I'll get by.

More interesting to me is the question, “What does this mean for baseball?"

To be honest, I don't think it means a damned thing.

Baseball teams have been putting together collections of elite talent for the
entire modern free-agency era, arguably since the end of the 19th century.
Sure, there have been flurries of arguments against a high-budget team
(usually the Yankees) putting together an unbeatable juggernaut at the
expense of the so-called “little guys,” but this rarely materializes. I see
a couple obvious factors here, and one surprising one.

One obvious one is roster size. One player on an NBA roster makes up 20
percent of the team in play and about 8 percent of the whole team: In MLB,
these numbers are more like 10 percent and 4 percent. If an NBA team gets
three elite players, they make up 60 percent of the starting lineup, and
probably play on the order of 50 percent of the total minutes. If the
Phillies sign even as many as four elite starting pitchers, they still need a
bullpen, offense, and defense.

Another factor is that one elite player can have a disproportionate impact on
a basketball game. Not only did LeBron James lead a team of role players to
the NBA Finals in 2007, but the Detroit Pistons of the early-00's were the
only team in recent memory (since 1980, say?) to win the Finals without
having one of the five best players in the NBA on the squad. In contrast, not
only did Felix Hernandez, good enough to win the Cy Young he deserved, not
lead the Seattle Mariners to a winning record, he didn't do so while having
Cliff Lee in the same rotation.

That seems like another factor: Admittedly, I'm a much bigger baseball fan
than NBA fan, but it just seems like there are more players in MLB that can
be considered really excellent compared to their peers. (Of course, there are
twice as many positions, too.)

The surprising reason, however, might be at least partially explained by the
salary cap (or lack thereof). There was no way for New Jersey to offer
Anthony a different amount of money than New York. While Cleveland could
offer James more money than any other team, it was only one more year, and
the percentage difference was fixed. In contrast, the woeful Detroit Tigers
were able to entice Ivan Rodriguez with what was considered a
disproportionate offer at the time, and although such plans don't always bear
fruit (Jayson Werth's deal with Washington comes to mind as the most recent
example of one not likely to work), the Tigers did win the AL Pennant in 2006.

Also, there are more ways to put together a playoff-caliber team in MLB,
which is why we've seen teams like Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Texas, St.
Louis, and Philadelphia in the World Series in recent years. The baseball
playoffs are more susceptible to randomness, too: It's pretty rare for an NBA
champion to be a team that pulled several upsets en route to their title.

I'm not saying one sport is better than the other: You're here, so you
probably share my opinion on the subject. But I'm pretty confident that while
the NBA landscape might have been changed significantly for the foreseeable
future, the MLB landscape looks pretty much unaffected by it.

--
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推 voon:水手又被抓出來舉例
推 zino0310:籃球跟棒球本質就差很多 棒球不確定因素太多 自然不像NBA
→ zino0310:有啥三巨頭或四巨頭  不然洋基早就十連霸了吧！！
→ w9103:              "      " 真的沒差嗎?
→ EEERRIICC:費城沒WSC的話
推 josephhou:同樣，棒球相對來講也比較不像籃球需要化學反應什麼鬼的
→ josephhou:比較不用擔心弄來一堆明星球員卻配不起來，不是嗎？
→ tigertiger:棒球的每個play比較獨立  只有投手守備互相影響比較大
→ EEERRIICC:休息室毒藥..
→ searoar:voon:水手又被抓出來舉例
推 dickiong:可以大致解釋這篇在說什麼嗎?季後賽名額還是交易方面?
推 honey4617912:棒球是打著團隊名號的自幹運動阿~籃球自幹能力強不一
→ honey4617912:定能增加球隊勝率,但棒球卻不是
→ searoar:我認為相反 籃球一個人強20*20+庇蔭隊友 棒球你會被BB*4
→ honey4617912:你看看凱文愛跟灰狼勝率...
推 shyuanan1:若用 Love 舉例恐怕有爭議  他攻防都不是能罩全隊的那種
→ shyuanan1:我倒想聽聽棒球要如何靠自幹贏球～
推 vince1025:一朗表示：
推 ERICKAO08:可能投手完投算是自幹吧  沒人會跟他搶球(誤..
→ tigertiger:還是可以啦  Bonds 幾乎一個打全隊..
→ tigertiger:不過故意用BB*4還是會沒辦法
推 terop:作者:身為騎士迷對"大咖揪團"敏感也是很正常的
推 honey4617912:我的意思是籃球很講化學效應這東西 棒球卻非如此
推 terop:其實光看標題我本來以為要說NBA封館的事情
→ honey4617912:棒球你每個位置都擺個只愛刷數據的球員還是能贏
→ honey4617912:籃球呢?
→ StarlinCastr:只愛刷數據的棒球員有這麼好找的嗎？
→ StarlinCastr:只要是職業運動都是要講團隊效應的
→ DesertEagleX:Putz: Ichiro只愛刷數據 沒有團隊精神
→ StarlinCastr:棒球一場最少要10個人玩 籃球只需要5個
→ skypieadream:看不懂你要表達什麼!?是你喜歡的NBA比MLB來的複雜!?
→ FatalLuna:棒球數據那麼好刷?! 我笑了
→ StarlinCastr:事實上人數越多的球種越難預測
→ StarlinCastr:籃球可以找人掩護  棒球的掩護不就是前後棒威力？
→ StarlinCastr:真正到上場打擊還不是要靠自己真本事
→ accprote:人數越多的越難預測 所以MLB一直比NBA難堵( ′-`)y-～
推 maxspeed150:可以問一下 棒球要怎麼刷數據嗎?
推 lingjj:棒球沒那麼複雜 大部分時間只有投手、捕手和打者三個人在玩
→ lingjj:但運氣成分較重 先發投手的狀況主宰大半勝負
→ kikielle:棒球是主審主宰大半勝負
推 MazdaRx7:不要忽略捕手對棒球比賽的重要性
→ zirca:   籃球是裁判主宰九成勝負
→ StrangeFruit:maxspeed150:可以問一下 棒球要怎麼刷數據嗎?
→ StrangeFruit:Mark Eynolds:............................
→ StrangeFruit:Mark Reynolds:..........................
推 poplc:投手要故意刷勝投好像有個方法 別人先發四局 自己中繼兩局
→ tigertiger:棒球怎麼刷數據？ 一場差不多就4-5個PA 想多打都難
→ poplc:打電動可以刷到單季50W以上
推 lingjj:嗯 三振數確實很好刷 狂揮大棒就行了
推 StarlinCastr:工業風扇哥 這不叫刷數據 你例子舉錯了....
→ tigertiger:投手一季拿35次GS就很屌了  也是有極限
→ poplc:XDDDDDDDDDDDDD 刷三振還蠻屌的~~~這個的確簡單
推 ByMa:能刷三振紀錄但不被教練冰板凳的也不多吧...Reynolds表示:
推 ByMa:棒籃都有團隊成分在，但是攻擊上籃球比較有機會可以一人稱霸
→ ByMa:只要你能一人打五人體力無限自幹王，棒球就沒辦法了
→ ByMa:防守上籃球應該沒人可以一人守五人，投手也許可以完投完封
→ ByMa:但防守還是要靠隊友，即便能27K也得有捕手保證能接捕你的球
推 tn1983:可以解釋一下 什麼叫數據很好刷嗎( ′-`)y-～
推 ByMa:我打2K10生涯投手技能點滿沒辦法刷三振破單季紀錄QQ...
推 chigo520:籃球可以靠一個人自幹 棒球就算你在會轟都只有陽春砲打點
→ chigo520:也不會很多 而且籃球球可能都只會在幾個人手上但棒球每個
→ chigo520:人分配到的機會都差不多 4棒打的次數還會比1棒少
推 ByMa:而且隊友打擊太弱，還會一直被閃躲甚至IBB
推 wilson200106:等到NBA有IBB制度再來講哪個比較偏個人吧...
推 hiro1221:前面說刷數據的意思應該是，一堆打擊三圍數據好看的放進
→ hiro1221:打線，不管怎樣就是會打的比較好，但籃球找5個平均得分
→ hiro1221:20分的球員放在球隊裡面，不一定會比較好
推 Uncontinue:很簡單啊 棒球每個人的機會都平均且較獨立
→ Uncontinue:而籃球就有球權分配和戰術跑動等等因素
→ Uncontinue:有的人出手次數比較多 數據也會比較好看
→ Uncontinue:而棒球就頂多前後棒次掩護問題會影響好壞球比率
→ Uncontinue:實際上還是憑個人本事來擊球 不會有包夾露人空檔這種
推 whalelover:棒球要輪一輪才能打一次啊
→ Uncontinue:因為隊友而賺到的絕佳空檔 得分難易度大減
→ Uncontinue:在平均分配的打擊機會下你能夠打出什麼數據都是靠自己
→ Uncontinue:很少有所謂的進攻機會被隊友壓縮而數據不好看的問題
推 vf3:無安打都可以輸球了  所以棒球真的太多團隊變數
推 jerryklu:一朗表示：對不起，得分太少都是我自己跑太慢...
推 Uncontinue:無安打輸球是整個隊上都爛 籃球輸球可以怪誰出手太多
→ Uncontinue:無安打輸球還可以怪某某失誤 但會輸還是分數太少
推 justloveaki:9個KOBE
推 maikxz:棒球九個可以線性疊加 籃球五個會有interaction 這樣>///<?
→ PlayStation3:有啦，不遵守教練下達觸擊然後安打就是刷數據不顧
→ PlayStation3:團隊的表現，不過僅限於國內職棒。
→ Herlin:棒球跟籃球也不是說哪種比較獨, 而是分工方式不同