作者Homura (虎斑街貓˙悼月)
站內MLB
標題[情報] Playoff Odds
時間Wed Jun 29 22:06:28 2011
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/
Expected Win Pct Sim Win Sim Loss Div Pct WC Pct Playoff Pct
BOS
.576 95.9 66.1 61.5% 33.5%
95.0%
NYY .567 93.9 68.1 36.6%
51.9% 88.5%
TBR .510 86.0 76.0 1.9% 11.8% 13.7%
BAL .497 76.5 85.5
0.0% 0.3% 0.3%
TOR .443 76.3 85.7
0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Expected Win Pct Sim Win Sim Loss Div Pct WC Pct Playoff Pct
DET .523 86.5 75.5 65.8% 0.6% 66.4%
CWS .498 81.9 80.1 20.0% 0.7% 20.7%
CLE .465 80.5 81.5 12.5% 0.6% 13.1%
MIN .505 75.7 86.3 1.7% 0.1% 1.8%
KCR
.397 66.3 95.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Expected Win Pct Sim Win Sim Loss Div Pct WC Pct Playoff Pct
TEX .528 85.3 76.7
72.5% 0.1% 72.6%
LAA .459 78.6 83.4 12.6% 0.1% 12.8%
OAK .509 78.7 83.3 11.7% 0.1% 11.9%
SEA .465 75.4 86.6 3.1% 0.1% 3.2%
Expected Win Pct Sim Win Sim Loss Div Pct WC Pct Playoff Pct
PHI .556 93.7 68.3 74.7% 17.7%
92.4%
ATL .559 89.4 72.6 24.6%
43.2% 67.8%
NYM .470 79.4 82.6 0.5% 2.1% 2.6%
FLA .515 77.2 84.8 0.1% 0.7% 0.8%
WAS .435 76.7 85.3 0.1% 0.5% 0.7%
Expected Win Pct Sim Win Sim Loss Div Pct WC Pct Playoff Pct
MIL .530 87.8 74.2 55.8% 6.4% 62.2%
STL .541 85.7 76.3 28.9% 9.2% 38.1%
CIN .526 83.3 78.7 14.2% 5.3% 19.5%
PIT .428 76.9 85.1 1.0% 0.4% 1.3%
CHC .476 73.2 88.8 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
HOU
.406 61.0 101.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Expected Win Pct Sim Win Sim Loss Div Pct WC Pct Playoff Pct
SFG .531 92.0 70.0
88.9% 2.2% 91.1%
COL .536 82.4 79.6 6.2% 6.2% 12.4%
ARI .465 80.8 81.2 3.1% 3.5% 6.6%
LAD .482 79.7 82.3 1.8% 2.5% 4.2%
SD .487 73.1 88.9
0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Expected Win Pct - 預期勝率
Sim Win - 模擬勝場數
Sim Loss - 模擬敗場數
Div Pct - 分區冠軍機率
WC Pct - 外卡機率
Playoff Pct - 季後賽機率
有兩隊被認為已經放寒假去了 - -
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◆ From: 114.42.118.250
→ x24627785:藍鳥教士不遑多讓 06/29 22:08
→ TrueTears:百年還有0.2% 06/29 22:09
推 SlamKai:馬林魚! 06/29 22:09
推 keysoon:蛇也被看的太扁了吧... 06/29 22:09
推 jet113102:國西很難講.... 06/29 22:10
推 mdfh:水手輸運動家... 06/29 22:12
推 EstelleRinz:太空人和皇家表示： 06/29 22:12
推 wazowski:Expected Pct. 是根據畢式公式出來的嗎? 06/29 22:14
推 todd7622:07、08年 Mets 99.9%不知道幾個月了還不是沒進季後賽XD 06/29 22:15
→ Homura:季末大崩盤不是常態啊 XD 06/29 22:16
推 wazowski:軟豆腐與傑曼紐表示:...... 06/29 22:17
推 weakhsuan:國東前兩名怪怪的... 06/29 22:19
→ Homura:Expected Pct.是季前預測 + 球季表現的綜合數據 06/29 22:19
推 weakhsuan:了蓋 06/29 22:21
推 wazowski:國東前兩名 只要考慮"季前"Uggla被預期帶給斧軍的火力, 06/29 22:21
→ wazowski:以及 Werth 換成 Dom Brown 被預期造成的打擊下修 不離譜 06/29 22:23
推 notmuchmoney:好奇怪的WC Pct 06/29 22:54
推 tanaka0826:HOU&KC XDD 06/29 23:01
推 ohb:有沒有原文連結啊?@@ 06/29 23:03
推 pawn001:這個有沒有算錯= = 藍鳥在金鶯之後? 06/29 23:13
推 jacky00766:↑都是0點多% 好像沒啥差= = 06/29 23:18
推 Kitsu:以為0.1%夠慘的了 竟然還有0%的 06/29 23:25
推 sarserror:Werth換成DoMo應該是沒甚麼差 06/29 23:27
推 chemikelvin:馬林魚還有0.8% XD 06/29 23:27
※ 編輯: Homura 來自: 114.42.118.250 (06/29 23:30)
推 labiron:小熊今年拿... 06/30 01:50
推 Connec: 獎學金TT 06/30 02:27
推 ueu72312: 去買山羊 06/30 02:54
推 kkboxreg01:去年成績跟今年來看Werth換成Domo差超多 06/30 06:39
→ kkboxreg01:何況Domo又把打線左打化了 06/30 06:39