[閒聊] WPA

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Description:

Most sabermetric statistics are context neutral, meaning they disregard the
fact that during the course of a game some plays are more crucial than
others. While wOBA rates all home runs as equal, we know intuitively that a
home run in the third inning of a blowout is less important than a home run
in the bottom of the ninth inning of a close game. Win Probability Added
(WPA) captures this difference by measuring how individual players affect
their team’s win expectancy on a play-by-play basis.

For example, if we were to take a specific game, say the Rays have a 45%
chance of winning before Ben Zobrist comes to the plate. During his at bat,
Zobrist hits a home run and the Rays’ win expectancy jumps to 75%. That
difference in win expectancy (in decimal form, so +.30) from the beginning of
the play to the end is Ben Zobrist’s WPA. If Zobrist strikes out during his
next at bat and lowers his team’s win expectancy by 5%, his overall WPA for
the game would be +.25.

定義: 球員的每個play對球隊勝率的貢獻加總，某種程度上可視為是關鍵能力的展現 (?)


Name              WPA             Name              WPA
Ian Kennedy       5.23            Jose Bautista     7.61
Justin Verlander  5.16            Joey Votto        6.71
Jered Weaver      4.85            Miguel Cabrera    6.33
Roy Halladay      4.71            Prince Fielder    6.09
Cliff Lee         4.47            Matt Kemp         5.58
Cole Hamels       4.19            Josh Hamilton     5.25
James Shields     3.98            Jacoby Ellsbury   5.22
Dan Haren         3.95            Lance Berkman     5.1
Josh Beckett      3.92            Ryan Braun        5
Clayton Kershaw   3.83            Albert Pujols     4.34
Ricky Romero      3.8             Ryan Howard       3.94
CC Sabathia       3.54            Adrian Gonzalez   3.66
Shaun Marcum      2.68            Carlos Beltran    3.52
Tim Lincecum      2.52            Alex Gordon       3.5
Johnny Cueto      2.42            Bobby Abreu       3.26
Randy Wolf        2.27            Curtis Granderson 3.15
Justin Masterson  1.97            Aramis Ramirez    3.08
Joe Saunders      1.96            Hunter Pence      2.99
Ryan Vogelsong    1.96            Evan Longoria     2.95
C.J. Wilson       1.9             Shane Victorino   2.93

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※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) 
◆ From: 140.109.64.237
推 sw926301:.........Abreu 比 葛神高
推 kimania:或許可以且是成葛神的隊友比Abreu的隊友強?
→ kimania:        解釋
推 Katoru:或說打線太暴力所以榜上名次不高?   XD
推 lyricslee:有NOVA嗎?
推 searoar:我貼過兩三次clutch
推 stk11:所以葛神只能算補刀王嗎XD
推 ARODisGod:IPK > Verlander   國聯比較____
推 rssh0106:葛神也太低了吧...吸乾隊友了?
推 larusa:#1EQWgD4z或許能稍稍解釋IPK的WPA會高於V少
→ GigiBuffon:投手那邊怎麼沒有姜雷基(誤
推 cloudfour:也許是棒次問題?