Re: Why the Texas Rangers will win the world se …

[nadal321 (nadal)]

※ 引述《abc12812 ()》之銘言：
: http://espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs/2011/story/_/id/7035599/why-texas-rangers-win-world-series

前面再喇賽就先刪掉

: So what am I (translation: we) predicting is about to happen over the next
: four weeks? You might be stunned, but here goes:
: The Texas Rangers are going to beat the Philadelphia Phillies in the 2011
: World Series.

真要我猜十月比賽的結果

我認為德州遊騎兵隊最終會在世界大賽擊敗費城人

: You should now book your flight to Vegas -- and bet on somebody else
: immediately.
: And how did I (translation: we) come to this heartfelt conclusion? We're
: about to explain that. So stay tuned:
: Why the Phillies?
: I should mention at the top that not everybody I surveyed made an actual
: prediction. Others were more comfortable picking one league over the other.
: But there was one conviction just about everyone in this group shared:
: The Phillies are The Pick to get through the National League side of the draw.
: There were 35 votes cast for the NL World Series entrant. Here are your final
: vote totals: Phillies 33, Brewers 2. There's a trend in there someplace.
: Not that there was no love or admiration for the Diamondbacks. One NL GM went
: so far as to say, "The team that's playing the best of anybody of late is
: Arizona. If anybody's going to upset the Phillies, I think it's them."
: But in general, the group summed up the D-backs this way: Great story. Great
: chemistry. Great coaching staff. Underrated pitching. Just not as much talent
: as the rest of the field.

為何國聯是費城人晉級呢？

首先，我並不是不認為響尾蛇是隻好球隊

他們打的很棒，若有人說費城會被擊敗，我認為是他們　　


但一般來說

雖然他們有很棒的教練團、化學反應，還有被低估的投手　　

但我認為他們應該還不足以在季後賽有所作為


: There also was a surge of "watch out for those Cardinals" sentiment. "They've
: played the Phillies better than anybody else [winning six of nine this
: year]," another GM said. "So if they get by that team, I bet they get to the
: World Series."
: But the prevailing wisdom was: Judge them by the full season they had, not
: the finish they had. As one NL hitter put it, "Their pitchers are good. But
: they don't give you that fear factor that the Phillies' pitchers do."
: I think people are underestimating the Cardinals. But the beauty of October
: is, they now get to prove exactly how good they are.

紅雀在最近九年裡有六年進了季後賽，經驗豐富

如果說他們能夠拉下費城，那我敢說他們能夠贏得世界大賽

但是作為一個ＮＬ打者，他會說

"他們的投手雖然都不錯，但他們不會像費城四天王給人那種恐懼的感覺"

我認為人們是低估了紅雀


: The Brewers, meanwhile, feel like the team everyone wants to pick but can't
: quite convince themselves to do it. Over and over, I heard folks say they
: were taking the Phillies, but boy were they tempted to go with the Crew. And
: who could blame them?
: Who would want to mess with a team that just won 96 games, and has two
: game-changers (Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder) in the middle of its lineup,
: two potential dominators (Yovani Gallardo and Zack Greinke) in the rotation,
: a closer (John Axford) who hasn't blown a save since April 18 and a bullpen
: that had a 1.01 ERA in September?

釀酒人今年贏了９６場

他們打線中有 Ryan Braun 和 Prince Fielder 兩尊神主牌

然後有 Yovani Gallardo 和 Zack Greinke 組成輪值雙箭頭

而終結者 John Axford 從4/18以後就沒BS過

在9月他的ERA只有1.01

: "They don't seem to have any fear right now," one American League exec said.
: "Their pitching is almost as good as the Phillies'," said one AL scout who
: picked the Brewers to win it all. "And Braun and Fielder are so much better
: than any other [NL] team's bats."

"似乎不會在他們身上發覺害怕"

"他們的投球似乎跟費城一樣好，而且 Braun 和 Fielder 無疑是聯盟最棒的打者之一"


: So what stopped most of those Brewers admirers from predicting The Upset? For
: one thing, no left-handers in the bullpen to match up with the Phillies'
: left-handed bats, other than Chris Narveson -- whose name elicited an "Oh,
: God" from one NL executive.
: For another thing, the Brewers have piled up wins against the bad teams but
: have had their issues with the good teams. They went 34-12 against the
: Astros, Cubs and Pirates, but didn't have a winning record against any of the
: other playoff teams and won two road series all year against teams that
: finished over .500.
: And finally, there's a surprising amount of skepticism about whether this
: team's offense is as good as its numbers make it look. We're talking huge
: home/road splits (57 more runs, 40 more extra-base hits, 107 more OPS points
: at home) and, as one GM put it, "a lineup full of swings and misses."
: But you know what really kept the masses from jumping on those Brewers parade
: floats? Mostly it was the feeling that the Phillies are just, well, better.

那是什麼讓大家無法看好釀酒人呢？

首先，酒鬼的牛棚除了 Chris Narveson

沒有堪用的左手牛能對付費城人的左打部隊

另外

他們專打弱隊，對太空人、小熊、海盜，他們戰績是３４勝１２敗

但對其他三支季後賽球隊勝率卻沒超過５成

最後

他們主客場的打擊成績落差太大

不禁讓人對他們的進攻火力打上問號


反觀，費城是很穩定的強


: "If I were the Phillies," one NL exec said, "I wouldn't be too worried about
: the matchups. With the pitching they've got, they match up with anybody."
: We can almost stop this brilliant analysis right there, with those four
: words: the pitching they've got.
: The rest of the Phillies' roster isn't perfect. Their bullpen could be an
: issue if the starters don't go deep enough. Their lineup could get shut down.
: But ask yourself this:
: How many nights in the entire month of October will the Phillies look at the
: starting pitching matchup and think: "We're in trouble tonight?"
: "The answer to that is: None," one scout said. "And that's what that club is
: built on. Every night they feel good about who's pitching and about the
: matchup. Most likely they'll be favored every night -- even though it's
: October."

費城人擁有ＳＰ四天王

不過他們其餘的陣容並不完美　　

若是先發無法支撐長局數牛棚會出現問題　　

而打擊也有點鳥蛋　　

但四天王爆掉的機會很低

可以這樣說，費城人擁有四天王幾乎等於已經贏一半了

: The Brewers can front their rotation with Gallardo and Greinke. The
: Diamondbacks will feel great about pitching Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson.
: The Cardinals have Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia. The difference is, in
: that ace-studded Philadelphia rotation, the big-time starters just keep on
: coming.
: As one NL East executive put it, every time he thinks about picking somebody
: else, he "just can't get past the Phillies being able to roll out [Cole]
: Hamels in Game 3 and [Roy] Oswalt as a fourth starter."
: How formidable are these Four Horsemen? Well, they're coming off a regular
: season in which their combined ERA as starters was 2.69 and their combined
: WHIP was 1.07. In other words, the four of them, as a group, were so good,
: they beat Ian Kennedy (2.88, 1.09) in both departments -- in a season in
: which Kennedy went 21-4.
: What ought to really terrify the rest of the field is that all four of these
: guys have risen to even more insane levels in October. Halladay, Cliff Lee,
: Hamels and Oswalt have made 35 career postseason starts -- the equivalent of
: one regular season. They've gone 20-7 with a 2.84 ERA in those starts --
: against the best lineups in baseball.
: So if you take a step back and think it through like that, you understand why
: one NL GM said, flatly: "If that team doesn't get to the World Series, I'll
: be shocked."

雖然酒鬼擁有 Gallardo 和 Greinke

小蛇有今年爆發的 Kennedy 和 Hudson

紅雀也有木匠和Garcia

但這些對於有四天王的費城來說根本不算什麼


或許其他隊還可以挑對手打

但費城人呢？　三號先發是Hamels  四號是Oswalt

可怕的是，這四個人在今年賽季合計繳出了2.69的ERA  WHIP只有1.07

換句話說，他們四個人合體還擊敗了今年爆發的Kennedy (ERA2.88  WHIP1.09)


更可怕的是

這四個人全部都有季後賽經驗，他們在季後賽合計先發出賽了35場

ERA只有2.84   對於那些季後賽的強隊擁有20勝7敗的成績


所以現在可以明白為何我這麼看好費城人了


: Why the Rangers?
: Over in the American League, there was no Rangers landslide. But by the time
: all precincts had reported, the voting looked this way: Rangers 15, Yankees
: 9, Tigers 5, Rays 1.
: So would it shock us if any of these four teams wound up in the World Series?
: Obviously not. How could it?
: The Rays? They believe in miracles -- and just made one happen. And more
: important, they have the best and deepest rotation of any team on this half
: of the draw.
: "I've seen all these teams in the last month," one scout said. "And I'll tell
: you the team I would not want to play. I would not want to face the pitching
: of Tampa Bay."
: Maybe the Rays will have that 2010 Giants mojo working in October. Maybe they
: have another month of perfect storms, fortuitous hops and Dan Johnson-esque
: swings of the bat ahead of them. But this also is a team that hit only .244
: this season, with a .322 OBP. And "the area where they could really get their
: hearts broken," the same scout said, "is the end of the game. We've seen Kyle
: Farnsworth at the end in the postseason before."

美聯

光芒擁有四隊中最深的輪值

也許他們可以效法2010年的巨人

說不定他們又有令人驚奇的一個月

但就現實面來說

他們團隊打擊率只有.244  上壘率只有.322

就算投手在強，打不出去也是沒用


: So if not them, the Tigers maybe?
: "To beat them," one NL exec said, "you know you have to beat the big fellow
: [Justin Verlander] two times and maybe three times. And I wouldn't depend on
: that."
: The Tigers also have the least-talked-about great bullpen in the game,
: fronted by a closer (Jose Valverde) who hasn't blown a save and a setup man
: (Joaquin Benoit) who hasn't given up a run in eight weeks. And you probably
: haven't even noticed that the last time the Tigers lost more than two games
: in a row was Memorial Day weekend.
: This also is a team that went 50-22 against its own division but just 45-45
: against everybody else. And it's a team that ranked last among the AL playoff
: entrants in defensive efficiency. Oh, and one more thing: The Verlander
: Factor cuts both ways.
: "The way he's pitching, I like their chances in a five-game series," one
: scout said. "I'm not sure they have the [rotation] depth to go through a
: seven-game series."

那老虎勒

想打敗老虎必須要擊敗Ｖ中年２次或３次

但要想靠著打敗Ｖ中年晉級是不實際的


老虎的牛棚其實還不錯

有終結者Jose Valverde   布局投手Joaquin Benoit

還有9月鬼神的Al Alburquerque


但老虎對分區以外的團隊戰績只有45勝45敗

而且防守是所有季後賽隊伍裡最爛的

投手的輪值深度也是個大問題

是否能夠足以應付7場的系列賽呢?


: Then there are the Yankees. Best offense in the tournament. They score
: against good pitching. And beyond that, with their procession of tough
: at-bats, "they grind on you," Orioles manager Buck Showalter said. If they
: get a lead, "they might shrink the game better than anybody, with [David]
: Robertson and Mariano (Whatsisname)," said one scout. And October is their
: time of year.
: But it all comes back to their rotation. And here's their nightmare scenario:
: "What happens if CC [Sabathia] DOESN'T win Game 1?" one exec asked. "Can they
: win a series if they don't win all the games CC pitches? I'm not sure they
: can."
: The overwhelming sentiment of this group was that he's right, that the
: Yankees will go as their ace goes. And in case you missed it, their ace
: hasn't had the aura lately of a guy who's about to have a 6-0 kind of
: October. Over his past nine starts, the Yankees lost five, and the hitters he
: faced batted .314 and slugged .528.

那那...洋基勒

毫無疑問洋基擁有最猛的火力，還是調ERA大隊

"他們超會纏鬥的" 金鶯總教練Buck Showalter說。

當他們領先時，又可以推出David Robertson和MO神


但問題就是他們的輪值，這是一個大問題

如果ＣＣ第一場沒贏怎麼辦？　

我很懷疑如果ＣＣ先發的比賽沒贏，他們是否能夠晉級


洋基是否能夠繼續往前走還得依賴ＣＣ這個王牌

但ＣＣ最近的9場先發，洋基就輸了５場

他的被打擊率高達.314  長打率高達.528


: So that leaves Texas, the least-noticed dominating team in the game. You
: think the Rays or Cardinals or Tigers will come in as the hottest team? Guess
: again. Down the stretch, the Rangers went 10-1 in their last 11 games, 15-3
: in their last 18 and 35-15 in their last 50.
: More important, the descriptions of them went like this: "Most complete team"
: … "most balanced team" … "greatest depth" … "match up with anyone" …
:  etc., etc.
: The difference between the Rangers and Yankees, one NL exec said, is that the
: Yankees HAVE to have CC pitch well and HAVE to bludgeon you to win. But Texas
: "doesn't HAVE to win any one way. They don't have any certain formula they
: need to follow to try to win games. They can beat you in so many different
: ways."
: The Rangers' offense was in the top four in the league in homers and steals,
: struck out less than any other team in the league, and had the third-best
: on-base percentage. Their pitchers threw the most shutouts in the league
: (19). And Baseball Prospectus ranked them No. 2 in the big leagues in
: defensive efficiency.
: And oh, incidentally, they played in the World Series last year. So they're
: familiar with the territory. But if you thought they can't possibly be the
: same this time around because there's no Cliff Lee on the roster, well,
: you're only half-right.
: "These are not the Rangers of last year," one scout said. "They're much
: better."

來看看遊騎兵吧！

或許光芒、紅雀、老虎近況都不錯　　

但遊騎兵在最近１１場球裏面贏了１０場

１８場裡面贏了１５場，５０場裡面贏了３５場

更重要的是，他們在各方面都很出色


洋基和遊騎兵之中的差異在於

洋基贏球還要靠ＣＣ和打線發揮

但是游騎兵不需要，他們有很多的辦法將你打敗

他們擁有聯盟前四的全壘打和盜壘，第三的上壘率　　

他們的投手完封了對手１９次是全大聯盟最多

防守也是大聯盟排名第二名　　


附帶一提，他們去年才打過世界大賽　　

所以他們對於季後賽相當熟悉

如果你認為他們今年沒有Cliff Lee所以不會贏，那你只對了一半

因為遊騎兵其他的選手都跟去年不可同日而語


: Why would the Rangers beat the Phillies?
: Glad you asked that question. While I've never worked for Bodog or hung out
: with Danny Sheridan, I know what an odds-on favorite looks like. And this
: October, it looks exactly like the Phillies.
: But the Phillies CAN be beaten. And an astounding number of people in the
: game suspect they WILL be beaten -- especially if they get matched up with
: the Rangers. Why is that? Here's why:

那為何遊騎兵能夠擊敗費城人呢？　

雖然費城人真的很強，但是可以被擊敗的，原因如下　


: (1) The best team in baseball never wins
: OK, so "never" isn't exactly true. Of the 16 postseasons in the wild-card
: era, the team with the best record has won occasionally, as long as it's
: known as the "Yankees" or "Red Sox."
: The 2009 and 1998 Yankees and the 2007 Red Sox survived the Best Record World
: Series Curse. But that's it. And in the 35 years since the Big Red Machine
: did its thing, there has been precisely one NL team that had the best record
: in baseball and won the World Series. That was the 1986 Mets -- a
: quarter-century ago.
: (2) The team that clinches early never wins
: Once again, that word, "never," isn't completely accurate. But the trend line
: for a Phillies team that had to kill two weeks until the postseason after
: clinching its division wouldn't inspire anybody in Philadelphia to start
: pre-ordering confetti.
: To find the last team that won its division by 10 games or more and went on
: to win the World Series, you have to go all the way back to the '98 Yankees.
: Since then:
: Seventeen teams have won their division by at least 10 games. Nine of them
: lost in the first round. Only two got to the World Series. And one of those
: two -- the 2004 Cardinals -- got swept.
: Eight of those 17 teams won 100 games or more and won their division by at
: least 10 games. Five of them didn't make it out of the first round. Only the
: '04 Cardinals made it to the World Series. The last NL team to win the World
: Series after winning its division by double-digit games? The 1995 Braves.
: Maybe the Phillies' eight-game losing streak after clinching worked the
: boredom out of their systems. And there was very little concern about their
: ability to kick back into big-game mode from most folks who took part in this
: survey. But it wasn't unanimous.
: "This is a timing-and-rhythm game," one NL exec said. "You lose that, you're
: in trouble. It's just hard to jump in that HOV lane, and slam on the brakes,
: and then accelerate again and keep up with the traffic."

(1)聯盟戰績最好的球隊通常不會贏得世界大賽

(2)通常早早就決定能進季後賽的隊伍不會贏得世界大賽

: (3) The best rotation doesn't always win
: We love to rhapsodize about Johnson and Schilling, Lincecum and Cain, or the
: 2005 White Sox. But the truth is, "sometimes we overstate the impact of
: starting pitching dominance in October," a different NL exec said.
: "Look at all those Atlanta teams," he said. "Look at Oakland with
: Hudson-Mulder-Zito. Those teams had dominant starting pitching, and they
: didn't win."
: Yes, the Phillies led the major leagues in shutouts -- but they did that last
: year, too. The Braves led the big leagues in shutouts four times in the '90s
: -- and won the World Series in none of those four seasons. The last team to
: lead the majors outright in shutouts and go on to win it all? Orel
: Hershiser's 1988 Dodgers. Just sayin'.

(3).最好的輪值並不總是會贏

大家總是對RJ+嘴砲王    盲腸+Cain或05白襪 在季後賽的表現津津樂道

但有時大家誇大了先發投手在10月的主導地位


看看過去的勇士隊

還有昔日的運動家三本柱 Zito-Mulder-Hudson

這些以投手為主的球隊，他們沒贏!


今年費城人的確在季賽封鎖了整個大聯盟

但他們去年也是如此就沒有贏

勇士隊在90年代有4個球季投手壓制力是大聯盟最佳，這4個球季都沒有贏

上一次團隊大聯盟投手最佳，靠著投手封鎖而贏得世界大賽

要追朔到1988年Hershiser的道奇了


: (4) The Rangers negate the Phillies' strengths
: The formula for beating this Phillies team is essentially identical to the
: formula the Giants were able to use to beat the last Phillies team to make it
: to the Octoberfest:
: Roll out a staff perfectly suited to shut down their lineup, expose their
: bullpen flaws and put just enough pressure on their starters to make them
: sweat.
: Well, if that's the formula, said one scout, the Rangers "are the Phillies'
: worst nightmare."
: "The Phillies' hitting can come and go," he said. "And Texas has the
: left-handers to make it go."
: The Rangers' three best starters down the stretch all are left-handed -- C.J.
: Wilson, Derek Holland and Matt Harrison. And Hunter Pence or no Hunter Pence,
: said one NL GM, "to beat the Phillies, you have to have left-handed,
: dominating starting pitching, which is their bugaboo."
: In their bullpen, the Rangers don't have classic situational left-handers, in
: Darren Oliver and Mike Gonzalez. But their three late-inning shutdown
: relievers -- Neftali Feliz, Mike Adams and Koji Uehara -- held left-handed
: hitters to averages of .189, .189 and .130, respectively.
: "They have so many different options out there, it feels like they can always
: find a way to get the ball to the right guy in the right spots," one scout
: said. "They can really match up with you."

(4)遊騎兵能充分讓費城的優勢消失

基本上打敗費城人的公式跟去年巨人打敗費城是相同的

找出適合對付他們打線的投手壓制他們

攻擊他們牛棚的缺陷，儘可能的給先發投手壓力來耗費他們的體力


遊騎兵有三個很棒的左投手可以壓制他們

C.J. Wilson,  Derek Holland  和  Matt Harrison

一位NL GM表示 "要擊敗他們需要有左手的投手"

遊騎兵牛棚的左手牛有Darren Oliver 和 Mike Gonzalez

後三局有 Neftali Feliz, Mike Adams, 上原浩志 組成的三道牆

他們讓左打的打擊率只有.189

右打的打擊率更低到.130


: You don't need to be a member of the Rusty Greer Fan Club to know the
: Rangers' lineup can throw way more thunder and speed at the Phillies than the
: Giants' cast of characters did last October. But one scout believes it wasn't
: just the Giants' pitchers who shut down that Texas lineup last year. It was
: also AT&T Park -- which will be nowhere to be found in this postseason.
: "I love Texas' lineup," the scout said. "And if you put those guys in a park
: like Philly's, they fit. You start putting them in a park where the long ball
: comes into play, like it does in Texas, they can be scary."
: But if the October winds are howling and the long ball isn't coming into
: play, "Texas can really play a National League style game, too," Showalter
: said. "They've got a lot of versatile players, guys who play multiple
: positions. They move people around. They'll have no trouble playing the
: National League game in National League stadiums."

遊騎兵陣容很完美

不管放在哪個球場或是要他們打出哪種風格的野球他們都能有好表現


"遊騎兵擁有很多能夠守不同位置的球員, 這很適合在國家聯盟作戰"

金鶯總教練 Showalter說。

"就算轉換到國家聯盟，他們也不會有調度上的麻煩"


: Now maybe I (translation: we) will be wrong about all this. That's usually
: how it works in these columns, after all. Maybe form will hold and those
: Phillies starters will hang more zeroes than the '66 Orioles and the parade
: floats will be motoring down Broad Street again.
: But so much of what happens in October is determined by matchups. And the
: more people in the game who weighed in on this, the more clear it became that
: Texas is the one matchup the Phillies ought to want no part of.
: That's how I (translation: we) see it, anyway. And at least this year, if
: this annual prediction turns out the way it usually turns out, I don't have
: to blame it solely on my own flawed logic. I have three dozen accomplices who
: can stand trial with me.
: This October might very well provide yet more proof that I'm a knucklehead.
: But at least it'll also be proof that I'm not the only knucklehead in our
: midst.


不過以上都是猜測

十月打了才知道我說的對不對


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剩下半小時就要開打了.....

應該粉緊張   希望來場好比賽

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※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 114.34.36.137
推 KINGTIGERX:推 ！
※ 編輯: nadal321        來自: 114.34.36.137        (10/01 04:42)
推 johnnynono:遊騎兵擁有很多能夠守不同位置的球員<----麥可楊冏
推 kikielle:"四天王怎可能天天被打爆" 不用天天阿 每個都輪流爆一場
→ kikielle:那就掰了...
推 troyasap:樓上，他是指發生的機率微乎其微= =
※ 編輯: nadal321        來自: 114.34.36.137        (10/01 05:06)
→ kikielle:可是季後賽就是短期阿 費城人也不是沒連敗過
推 sarserror:第(1.)跟(2.)的說服力超差 進季後賽的球隊有八支，戰績
→ sarserror:最好的球隊只有一支 這樣比起來我一定也賭不是戰績最好
→ sarserror:的球隊拿冠軍
推 globekjller:洋基要贏...目前看來是要靠打線....
→ globekjller:因為二三號先發...很難掌握....
推 ThreeNG:結果遊騎兵被光芒爆了 (⊙▽⊙)
推 shootboom:第一場而已  不過還是爆了 難過
→ Sagarmatha:短期本來就很難講 費城人前一陣子也被國民sweep
推 devilsky:CJ第一場就被轟爆了
推 Sanco:季後賽就是他媽的運氣啊！
推 Levelmax99:推sarserror
推 momoda:Ace被打爆 接下來 除非條子爆回去 不然三場其實很快的..
推 kin30503:第一場馬上打臉
推 burdette:結果遊騎兵在主場被一個大聯盟新人整個封鎖
推 eric2003002:噗....
推 xswxsw12:打臉打超大 再寫一篇吧 CJ安心上路
推 Tampa:人品最重要(誤)
→ mess0706:沒甚麼打不打臉的吧, 預測本來就是這樣啊 XD
→ mess0706:整天提打臉不覺得很無聊?
推 kurt28:同意樓上
推 hawk920412:如果今天氣象報告說降雨80％結果整天沒下雨，有人會說
→ hawk920412:氣象局被老天打臉？
推 sfcarter:結果遊騎兵也因為被看好所以挫賽
推 higger:而且還是9:0...(箊)